Indian Economics thread.

[Lethe]

Total Fertility rate of india has fallen below 2.1 and it will keep falling though the muslims in india are reproducing at a very fast pace but still Indian population touching 1.65 billion is higly unlikely

The aforementioned projected population peak for India in 2055-2060 of 1650m people is based on projected average TFR over the 2020-2025 period of 2.14 and declining thereafter (to 1.76 by 2055-2060).

TFR is a leading indicator. If TFR is sustained below 2.1 then over time the population still stabilise and decline, but it will not happen overnight, or even over a decade. China's TFR has been below 2.1 since the 1990s yet one quarter of a century later its population has still not quite peaked.

 

[PiSigma]

China made a major mistake by initiating the 2020 border crisis. Modi was essentially pushed into the arms of the US.

I am skeptical that India will ever match China but I am not a doomer either. Some Indian intellectual of a bygone era came up with a pithy slogan which I still think matches the situation: "India will disappoint the optimist but confound its pessimists".

It will continue to rise at a leisurely pace, never coming to equal with China but will surpass Japan by the early 2030s at the latest and continue to climb thereafter. India will never be seriously threatened. Even today, it is largely secure and the paranoid fears of its military vis-a-vis a "two front war" is largely unfounded IMO.

China didn't start the 2020 border clashes, India did. China just finished it

 

[siegecrossbow]

China didn't start the 2020 border clashes, India did. China just finished it

Why the heck would China instigate a border crisis while it hasn’t even recovered from the pandemic yet in early to mid 2020? Obviously India was happy with their “win” in Doklam and wanted to take advantage of China’s crisis. Too bad it didn’t go their way.

That said, I am nervous that the botched COVID response in Shanghai will make them itch for more this summer.

 

[PiSigma]

Why the heck would China instigate a border crisis while it hasn’t even recovered from the pandemic yet in early to mid 2020? Obviously India was happy with their “win” in Doklam and wanted to take advantage of China’s crisis. Too bad it didn’t go their way.

That said, I am nervous that the botched COVID response in Shanghai will make them itch for more this summer.

Pretty obvious to everyone here except @mossen

I would like India to try again. Good chance to see how the reforms are working.

 

[Chandragupt]

Pretty obvious to everyone here except @mossen

I would like India to try again. Good chance to see how the reforms are working.

You guys are talking your own perspective but as a neutral observer I can confirm that indian army is not as weak as you guys are trying to portray it
What India lacks vis a vis China is border infrastructure and easy accessibility to borders
China has created robust infrastructure to move troops and arms and ammunition to India China borders from anywhere in China
India doesn’t have that kind of infrastructure in north east or indo Nepal border

 

[Kabir]

You guys are talking your own perspective but as a neutral observer I can confirm that indian army is not as weak as you guys are trying to portray it
What India lacks vis a vis China is border infrastructure and easy accessibility to borders
China has created robust infrastructure to move troops and arms and ammunition to India China borders from anywhere in China
India doesn’t have that kind of infrastructure in north east or indo Nepal border

It actually depends on how you define military. For purely self defense india is in good position against an adversary on same technological term. It is not a 21st century military power. India has no power projection capability,let alone offensive one as it was shown during their balakot drama. And it can not fight an adversary superior in technological term. It is a manpower intensive military shielded by nuclear deterrence , somewhat like Pakistan. As for engagement with China, China has long showed tradition of fighting an adversary according to it's capacity without going show off mode which comes at heavy price tag. Nobody knows that better than USA.

 

[Chandragupt]

It actually depends on how you define military. For purely self defense india is in good position against an adversary on same technological term. It is not a 21st century military power. India has no power projection capability,let alone offensive one as it was shown during their balakot drama. And it can not fight an adversary superior in technological term. It is a manpower intensive military shielded by nuclear deterrence , somewhat like Pakistan. As for engagement with China, China has long showed tradition of fighting an adversary according to it's capacity without going show off mode which comes at heavy price tag. Nobody knows that better than USA.

India millitary may not be as capable as China but it’s definitely way better equipped than Pakistan or Afghanistan just see the defence budget of india its more than entire federal budget of Pakistan
Economy of India is 10-12 times bigger than Pakistan , Forex reserves are 60-63 times bigger And population around 6 times
China has a defence budget 3-4 times the defence budget of india with more or less the same population so it will definitely be more equipped
And I don’t consider Balakot as failure I don’t know whether india was able to inflict casualties on Pakistan or not but indian airforce Bombing Pakistan which claims to be sovereign country is a victory in itself
Btw this thread is about Indian economy so we should discuss about Indian economy only

 

[Kabir]

just see the defence budget of india its more than entire federal budget of Pakistan
Economy of India is 10-12 times bigger than Pakistan , Forex reserves are 60-63 times bigger And population around 6 times

So if i am understanding this correctly then India has better military than Russia while KSA is stronger than Israel.
The economy needs to translate into technology to make it hard power. India has none. India having better equipment than Pakistan is akin to South Africa is having better equipment than Israel. Economy => Efficient Management+ Technological dominance + Supply Chain Ownership = Hard Power .

Economy of India is 10-12 times bigger than Pakistan , Forex reserves are 60-63 times bigger And population around 6 times

It is rather opposite directional calculation. India having 6 times bigger population will automatically consume and overwhelm the economy. The raw calculation shows it well enough that Indian economy barely doubles per capita income that is of pakistan, with india having far bigger share of population under poverty.

India millitary may not be as capable as China

People may misunderstand. I did not say indian military is incapable. I said it needs clarification on how you do term capability. North Korea is very capable in it's own term. Similarly india would do well in battle that involves manpower and that is purely defensive. India having better equipment does not really bring anything consequential because they do not manufacture anything of those supply chain and they will drain their economy further nurturing those better equipment that will need maintenance and fuel. Even Pakistan in this regard has localized supply chain which in turn will have a say on economic front because a localized supply chain is handled by local economic factors. India does not have anything of these.

 

[Chandragupt]

So if i am understanding this correctly then India has better military than Russia while KSA is stronger than Israel.
The economy needs to translate into technology to make it hard power. India has none. India having better equipment than Pakistan is akin to South Africa is having better equipment than Israel. Economy => Efficient Management+ Technological dominance + Supply Chain Ownership = Hard Power .

It is rather opposite directional calculation. India having 6 times bigger population will automatically consume and overwhelm the economy. The raw calculation shows it well enough that Indian economy barely doubles per capita income that is of pakistan, with india having far bigger share of population under poverty.

People may misunderstand. I did not say indian military is incapable. I said it needs clarification on how you do term capability. North Korea is very capable in it's own term. Similarly india would do well in battle that involves manpower and that is purely defensive. India having better equipment does not really bring anything consequential because they do not manufacture anything of those supply chain and they will drain their economy further nurturing those better equipment that will need maintenance and fuel. Even Pakistan in this regard has localized supply chain which in turn will have a say on economic front because a localized supply chain is handled by local economic factors. India does not have anything of these.

Saudi Arabia adds their budget of internal security into their overall defense budget that’s why it looks big
and in case of Russia since they buy locally and the Russian rubble is weak so the defense budget looks small in dollar terms
GDP of India is heavily underestimated that’s the reason why mentioned FOREX reserves because FOREX reserves can’t be underestimated or overestimated
And instead of looking at gdp per capita or poverty rate you should simply look at average life expectancy , infant and maternal mortality rate to judge the quality of life of an average individual in a region or state
And india has a huge manufacturing base definitely not as big as China or Russia but but there is no comparison with Pakistan or Afghanistan

 

[gelgoog]

I think India should have just gone for licensed production of the Su-30 and MiG-29. But right now it is kind of late to consider that.
India could have bought some units, then started with construction of parts kits, and progressively increase native content.
Similar to T-90 tank program.

With regards to comparing economies and how they translate to military potential, it is not as simple as that. You keep talking about Afghanistan and that is a good example. They have next to no economy and are basically stuck with goat farmers and the like. But in a defensive war they are next to impossible to beat in the long term.