Ukrainian War Developments

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JayFalsum

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reservior dogs said:
Yes, it seems Putin is after regime change. He will pull out once the military is run by commanders that are pro-Russia. If, at that time, the hard sanctions like kicking them out of SWIFT are put in place, the following could happen.

1. Russia withdraw sale of material critical for electronic chip making, things like semi-conductor grade neon, and palladium. The entire semi-conductor except China will come to a grinding halt.

2. No oil for the Europeans means their industries will also come to a grinding halt.

3. Further integration of the Russian economy with China.

4. If the harsh sanctions are not lifted some years down the road, they can contemplate taking over the Baltic states. Since these are NATO members, if we don't intervene, NATO is all but finished. If we do intervene, except the small border with Poland, there is no way to send support except by sea. Do we want to send in our carriers? In a small area like the Baltic Sea, they can easily sink them. Since all the sanctions are already in place, there is nothing more we can do.

The West got ourselves into this pickle when we kept expanding NATO to the Eastern European nations without any regard for Russia's security concerns. It is fine if we can back it up with our military, but we clearly don't have the means to do that.
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Generate 10 millions of refugees, see how fast the EU would drop their pants.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
Yes, it seems Putin is after regime change. He will pull out once the military is run by commanders that are pro-Russia. If, at that time, the hard sanctions like kicking them out of SWIFT are put in place, the following could happen.

1. Russia withdraw sale of material critical for electronic chip making, things like semi-conductor grade neon, and palladium. The entire semi-conductor except China will come to a grinding halt.

2. No oil for the Europeans means their industries will also come to a grinding halt.

3. Further integration of the Russian economy with China.

4. If the harsh sanctions are not lifted some years down the road, they can contemplate taking over the Baltic states. Since these are NATO members, if we don't intervene, NATO is all but finished. If we do intervene, except the small border with Poland, there is no way to send support except by sea. Do we want to send in our carriers? In a small area like the Baltic Sea, they can easily sink them. Since all the sanctions are already in place, there is nothing more we can do.

The West got ourselves into this pickle when we kept expanding NATO to the Eastern European nations without any regard for Russia's security concerns. It is fine if we can back it up with our military, but we clearly don't have the means to do that.
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I appreciate your input. Your perspective is a valuable in these times

Yes I agree with your points.

For China, integrating Russia to its economy it would be very valuable. People might not know it but Russia's scientists and engineers rival US on numbers and are quite skilled. Provide them Chinese funding and they would be a tremendous help for China. And then there all the other raw materials which exist in Russia.

Regarding NATO yes. Although i don't see this as a negative for the US. Its the EU which is braindead here and is going to face huge costs.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Suetham said:
That's what I see too.

The numbers employed by the Russians are not realistic for a long-term occupation, but they are realistic for a quick decapitation followed by a division of Ukraine into Russian-governable parts and a dysfunctional western part that Russia will eventually vacate but will likely demilitarize. Ukraine and the abandonment of any desire to join NATO. It just needs a proxy installed to sign. I think that's the Russian objective, the problem is that I don't see how this is possible in the long term, this neutrality of Ukraine, even if such agreements are signed, I think there would be new protests like Maidan.

Putin must have put on the table the open questions between dividing Ukraine into separate parts that will be duly annexed to Russia and a separate part on the western side so as not to have to bear the costs of a heavy military campaign and conquest as well as deploying troops. permanently on the west side who are not pro-Russian.

Which territories will be duly annexed to Russia?

Probably the entire coast of Ukraine and the entire east of the Dnieper River.

The western side of the territory would have to lay down their arms by virtue of a treaty and abandon the objective of joining NATO, but they will have autonomy from the Moscow regime.

View attachment 83613

In the map above, basically the blue part would be integrated into Russia.
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Agree the northern Ireland option is the only logical solution here.

But it's hard to see Russia giving up Kiev, Chernobyl and control of the Dnieper. Shift that line to the left a few states and I think we have a winner.

Both halves have free democratic elections where a pro Russian leader wins in the east and a pro-western leader in the west. The eastern part becomes a part of Russia and the western half becomes an independent state, but with enforced neutrality in their constitution and no military.
 
T

Tianlong

New Member
Registered Member
JayFalsum said:
Generate 10 millions of refugees, see how fast the EU would drop their pants.
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The european readiness to welcome Ukrainian refugees is far greater then to accept those from the middle east. The most anti-refugee states of eastern europe especially, since there already is a sizeable Ukrainian community and they are culturally close to each other.
Like it or not, Europeans tend to be more welcoming to white skinned christians then to other ethnicites. So the refugee tactic will at most work with severly dimished return.
 
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