Crisis in the Ukraine

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delft

Brigadier
i think the situation of rebels is a lot more desperate than you make out in this analysis. developments on the ground illustrate a gradual retreat not as part of an elusive operational design but simply reaction to pressure. the rebels are now down to their last two strongholds, one of them is completely cut off, while the other is heading the same direction. today RT reported artillery shells landing in makeevka, this city is just to the east of donetsk and has hitherto been spared of attacks. my friend in donetsk mentioned shells landing in a park named sherbakova. and this is located just west of downtown donetsk. i dont see how this can be interpreted in any manner other than losing, the rebels are definitely in big trouble here.

my appraisal of eastern ukraine's strategic situation remains unchanged, if anti-kiev rebels can resist kiev's advance until winter, then they will have a shot at political settlement. losing either regional capital will only fuel kiev's war rhetoric and render any hope of dialogue unattainable. the rebels need to think strategically, just killing a lot of ukrainian soldiers is not enough because if i were kiev, i sure as hell am willing to trade donetsk or luhansk for another three brigades (especially three brigades of those unruly militias)

but killing a lot of ukrainians does fulfill an important condition for dialogue because it puts political pressure on kiev to stop the war. but this is not an enabling factor on its own. it is more important to not lose anymore ground, which would feed into the victory-is-at-hand discourse in kiev.
Time is important in other aspects. The economic sanctions are biting in Western Europe especially because the finances are very fragile. The Russian retaliation is well thought out and promises total loss of markets for some sectors. There is also time for more people to start wondering about the lack of evidence for the alleged responsibility of the militias for shooting down MH17 and for direct Russian military interference in East Ukraine. My Dutch newspaper published in an article beside the main editorial a few days ago the remark that US secret service allegations carry little weight as they had lied too often in the past. A remark that only months ago would have been unthinkable.
These developments will make the governments which mostly were unenthusiastic but obedient in following US policy directives less inclined to continue the current policy especially with the approach of winter and the chance of Kiev closing the gas pipelines through its territory. After all it is enough to say that evidence points to Kiev for the destruction of water and electricity supply in the East to justify a change the attitude in the matter even if they don't dare to point to Kiev for murdering 298 people in MH17.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Slavyangrad have produced the AITREP map in English (inc keys and legend) so I am reposting for convenience

2uggjtw.jpg


I also include the latest updates from Cassad
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1. The most heavy fighting is currently happening under Ilovaysk. The junta threw effectively everything it had here on the city, they even abandoned the encirclement of Mospino, almost everything was entered into the battle for Ilovaysk. The militia were of course pushed into the urban area by the onslaught, but that is where the junta offensive was stopped in the course of street fighting. Motorola's squad with the veterans of fighting for Slavyansk, Nikolayevka, and Miusinsk rolled in to help the garrison, which is repelling powerful junta attacks for more than one and a half weeks now. These guys were very welcome, because in the recent days it was noticeable that our guys were holding up there literally with all the strengths they had left. Overall, this is the main direction of the attack, the junta is in a rush and doesn't want to lose time to bypass the cities leaving the powerful hubs of the resistance behind, they want to plain and dumb crush and reach the south suburbs of Donetsk directly. They suffer serious losses, but for now the initiative here is with them. They will have problems here if they will conclusively get stuck under Ilovaysk, and the militia will finish off the South Cauldron 2.0. Then after some time they'll get a strike on Amvrosiyevka and in the flank of the group that is storming Ilovaysk and Mospino. Time is of the essence here – Ilovaysk must hold until the moment when the surrounded ones will be finished off and then it is possible to count on serious help. Overall, the configuration of the battle in the south has all features of the battle for operational initiative. The junta is on the offensive, but the militia tries to recapture it. The resilience of the defenders of Ilovaysk will decide much here.

2. Fighting continued under Yasinovataya and Gorlovka and Yenakiyevo, but the junta failed to solve its main tasks during today and again took to terrorist shelling of the cities. They compensate the lack of professionalism with mass murder. It would seem that they have more tanks, infantry, and artillery, but they hit the militia position and trample before them with big losses. Overall, today was quite successful for the militia here. But it must be understood that the reinforcements from under Krasnyi Luch and Miusinsk allowed only to plug in the holes in the front line here and to stabilize it somewhat. The militia doesn't have significant forces here for a counter-offensive and in the nearest days they will have to repel increasingly powerful strikes of the enemy.

3. Under Novosvetlovka for now there's little progress, our side is attacking, the junta is defending, but we cannot push the enemy out completely yet. The enemy infantry here is demonstrating enviable resilience as of recent times, under Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch they ran back already after 2-3 days of fighting, and here they are holding on well. The full control over the roadway Krasnodon-Luhansk isn't re-established up to this point.

4. Stanitsa Luhanskaya was almost fully cleared from the junta. The victorious communiques ended up premature. As the locals clarify, while the militia is in control of the high point that dominates the settlement, capturing Stanitsa Luhanskaya is problematic, and the junta infantry didn't exhibit much resilience during the fighting for the city here.

A further update here
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Among the essential during the night and the morning.


1. The junta once again – for the 6-th or the 7-th time reported capturing Ilovaysk, but by the noon it decided to become more modest and announced that if not whole Ilovaysk then at least a half they definitely hold.
Actually, already yesterday they were sitting in the urban area on the southern outskirts of Ilovaysk and engaged in a firefight with the militia, which continues up until even now.
Officially there are 9 dead with the junta, actually, as usual, there's much more. The "Oplot" reinforcement arrived into Ilovaysk, including 5 tanks, so fighting will continue here further, and they'll manage to capture Ilovaysk for the 8-th, 9-th, and 10-th time. On the background of victorious communiques of the official speakers, the hysterical cries from the locations that "Donbass-1" was actually removed from the fighting for the city are much more symptomatic, because "Donbass-1" officially apparently captured Ilovaysk.

2. The "assault" on Luhansk suddenly withered, after the junta was pushed back from Kryashevatoye. Apparently, the convoy that rolled into Luhansk helped to repel the junta from Khryashevatoye, and then went on its own business in the city, after which the junta had a temper tantrum, because they were telling us for 5 days how they are about to capture Luhansk, and suddenly one-and-a-half kilometer convoys roll in there instead. Fighting near Novosvetlovka continued, but the roadway is still under threat. The most part of Stanitsa Luhanskaya is under the militia, the junta fortified on the outskirts. During the night there were sluggish firefights.

3. On Uspenka checkpoint to the south of Amvrosiyevka. For now mostly reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the militia operate there, there's no serious wrap from the south at the moment. The junta simply lacks forces to hold the front line, and so here the militia wander through the rears of the south group as if it was home. But it must be understood that this not at all the claw with which it is possible to form a new cauldron under Amvrosiyevka.

4. As it was clarified, the militia indeed reached the outskirts of Lutugino already yesterday, the capture of which may greatly increase the connectivity of Novorossia and speed up the defeat of junta military south of Luhansk. But there's no speaking about the assault of the city, so this tactical success shouldn't be overrated.

5. Apparently, yesterday was one of the bloodiest days for the junta military from the point of view of irrevocable losses. Heated fighting under Ilovaysk, Novosvetlovka, Khryashevatoye, Gorlovka, and Yasinovataya resulted in hundreds of dead and wounded. Tsaryov even sounded the number of more than 800 dead. 800 or not, but according to all sources, the losses from yesterday were very significant.
The militia also lost several dozens dead and wounded yesterday. Of course, dozens of civilians also perished, destruction continued in the cities of Donbass, especially memorable was a horrible explosion of the chemical plant under Donetsk, with a multi-kilometer plum of smoke and a brightest fire, which could be seen from many kilometers away from the explosion site.

Overall, fighting continues on crucial location. There's 4 days left until the Independence Day of Ukraine. There's a thought here that there's no way it is possible to capture Donetsk and Luhansk by the holiday.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Looks like the Rebels are losing ground to the Ukraine forces everyday.

Good for the Ukrainians. However I just hate to see open fighting in Europe. I would not like to see the disaster that happened in the former Yugoslavia befall on Ukraine. It would be sad to bear witness to another “balkanization”.



I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
Good for the Ukrainians. However I just hate to see open fighting in Europe. I would not like to see the disaster that happened in the former Yugoslavia befall on Ukraine. It would be sad to bear witness to another “balkanization”.

Bad for the Ukrainians, very bad. First of all, bulk of Ukraine's industry is in the East, lot of that have been destroyed. Workers fled to Russia. It is almost certain there will be no natural gas this winter, meaning many of them will live in freezing apartments .

And at the top of it, war will be not over quickly. Ukrainian forces lost another Su-25 today (admitted by government spokesman ) and possibly two more Mi-24 helicopters , rebels claim they have retook Ilovaysk :

20:06 GMT:

DNR forces say they have re-taken the strategic transport hub of Ilovaysk in Donetsk region, after intense fire-fights with government forces. According to a press release from the rebels the Donbass and Azov government units suffered heavy losses in the battle.

Earlier the government said that it had taken control of the area, and repelled all militant attacks.

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Overall, I have a feeling that in a few months Ukrainians will curse those who started all this Maydan stuff, and will remember Yanukovych reign with nostalgia .

P.S. Ukrainian newspaper from Zhytomyr claims that from 4500 soldiers in 30. AMB, only around 600 managed to escape back to Ukrainian lines, leaving rest either MIA (POW) or KIA .

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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Bad for the Ukrainians, very bad.
Actually, I believe MD meant that it would be good for Ukraine in the sense that a victory will mean the end of conflict and the chance for the people to come together and rebuild, reunify, etc.

We will see if that happens.

But that would be far preferable for the country than a continuation of fighting which would mean that all the ill you spoke of would continue with no prospect at all of things getting better.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Ok the Ukraine Air Force needs to seriously get some electronic jamming devices for ALL of it's military planes because they are getting shot down like gees in the sky.

A Ukrainian warplane was blown out of the sky over rebel-held territory Wednesday as fierce clashes between government troops and pro-Russian insurgents left dozens of civilians dead.

Fighting intensified as Kiev appeared to ramp up a deadly offensive to crush the ailing rebellion in the east ahead of a fresh round of diplomacy that will see the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet next week for the first time in months.

Military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said a Su-25 jet was shot close to the second-largest insurgent bastion of Lugansk, where government forces claim to have battled back control over several districts in the past few days.

Lysenko said it was too early to tell who had shot down the plane -- the latest in a string of military jets to be hit -- or what had happened to the pilot.

Clashes in and around the other major rebel stronghold of Donetsk killed 43 civilians in the past 24 hours, local authorities said.

AFP journalists saw fierce mortar fire tear through the centre of the city close to the state-of-the-art stadium of football team Shakhtar Donetsk, as Ukrainian troops tightened their grip on insurgents holed up in the mining hub.

Street battles were raging in Ilovaysk, a key railway hub some 45 kilometres (30 miles) east of Donetsk, with authorities saying nine soldiers died in the area in the last 24 hours, including a US national who fought for a Ukrainian volunteer battalion.

In the city of Makiyivka, adjoining Donetsk, residents were woken up by shelling in the early hours of Wednesday.

"What bastards," said local 81-year-old Maria Semyonovna, who said she was planning to go out in the morning but was stopped by sounds of explosions.

"We are at home here and they are bombing us," she told AFP. "When is it going to stop? Where can one go?"

The renewed offensive comes as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gears up for a meeting in Minsk with Russia's Vladimir Putin, the heads of Belarus and Kazakhstan, and EU officials next week.

That encounter will come after German Chancellor Angela Merkel jets in to Kiev on Saturday in a show of support for the country's pro-Western leadership.

Poroshenko this week said the army was regrouping to continue its push on the separatist hubs of Donetsk and Lugansk and to fragment the rebel-held territory to stop the flow of weapons from Russia.

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A.Man

Major
Actually, I believe MD meant that it would be good for Ukraine in the sense that a victory will mean the end of conflict and the chance for the people to come together and rebuild, reunify, etc.

We will see if that happens.

But that would be far preferable for the country than a continuation of fighting which would mean that all the ill you spoke of would continue with no prospect at all of things getting better.

There will be no rebuild. What rebuild did Iraq, Libya, Palestine have? If a government policy, instead of inclusion, is exclusion; there will be no future.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
Actually, I believe MD meant that it would be good for Ukraine in the sense that a victory will mean the end of conflict and the chance for the people to come together and rebuild, reunify, etc.

We will see if that happens.

But that would be far preferable for the country than a continuation of fighting which would mean that all the ill you spoke of would continue with no prospect at all of things getting better.

one can say the same for kiev to simply give up fighting and negotiate a political settlement though, that way they can even skip the painful urban warfare that would inevitably come with armed resolution.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
There will be no rebuild. What rebuild did Iraq, Libya, Palestine have? If a government policy, instead of inclusion, is exclusion; there will be no future.
I cannot peak to Syria or Libya per sey, but in Iraq there was a LOT of rebuilding...and I expect in the Ukraine if peace is obtained there will be a LOT there too.

As to inclusion vs. exclusion, that is a two-edged sword...cuts both ways.

Either one, on gaining what they believe to be a strong advantage, should seek to negotiate a settlement from that position. I expect if things continue, we'll see that happen.
 
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