Time is important in other aspects. The economic sanctions are biting in Western Europe especially because the finances are very fragile. The Russian retaliation is well thought out and promises total loss of markets for some sectors. There is also time for more people to start wondering about the lack of evidence for the alleged responsibility of the militias for shooting down MH17 and for direct Russian military interference in East Ukraine. My Dutch newspaper published in an article beside the main editorial a few days ago the remark that US secret service allegations carry little weight as they had lied too often in the past. A remark that only months ago would have been unthinkable.i think the situation of rebels is a lot more desperate than you make out in this analysis. developments on the ground illustrate a gradual retreat not as part of an elusive operational design but simply reaction to pressure. the rebels are now down to their last two strongholds, one of them is completely cut off, while the other is heading the same direction. today RT reported artillery shells landing in makeevka, this city is just to the east of donetsk and has hitherto been spared of attacks. my friend in donetsk mentioned shells landing in a park named sherbakova. and this is located just west of downtown donetsk. i dont see how this can be interpreted in any manner other than losing, the rebels are definitely in big trouble here.
my appraisal of eastern ukraine's strategic situation remains unchanged, if anti-kiev rebels can resist kiev's advance until winter, then they will have a shot at political settlement. losing either regional capital will only fuel kiev's war rhetoric and render any hope of dialogue unattainable. the rebels need to think strategically, just killing a lot of ukrainian soldiers is not enough because if i were kiev, i sure as hell am willing to trade donetsk or luhansk for another three brigades (especially three brigades of those unruly militias)
but killing a lot of ukrainians does fulfill an important condition for dialogue because it puts political pressure on kiev to stop the war. but this is not an enabling factor on its own. it is more important to not lose anymore ground, which would feed into the victory-is-at-hand discourse in kiev.
These developments will make the governments which mostly were unenthusiastic but obedient in following US policy directives less inclined to continue the current policy especially with the approach of winter and the chance of Kiev closing the gas pipelines through its territory. After all it is enough to say that evidence points to Kiev for the destruction of water and electricity supply in the East to justify a change the attitude in the matter even if they don't dare to point to Kiev for murdering 298 people in MH17.