Crisis in the Ukraine

[Jeff Head]

USS Vincennes ring any bells?

The Vincennes was an Aegis cruiser so their systems should be significantly more powerful and capable than any BUK.

If the USS Vincennes can mistaken an airbus for a hostile bogy, I cannot see how anyone could be so adament that a BUK could not possibly do something similar.

I'm not saying that the shoot down was accidental, but I think it's plainly wrong to categorically exclude that possibility from consideration considering what is claimed as an impossibility actually did happen before in real life with horrifying consequences.

The Vincennes was in a conflict zone with a "bogey" bearing down on it and not communicating or transponding. They tried numerous times to make contact and warn the aircraft off...but it kept coming. In the end the Captain ordered the shoot down in order to protect his own vessel.

A horrible tragedy, and definitely a mistake...but there was blame on both sides.

I believe, as you have indicated, Wolf, that the same type of thing occurred here.

As I have stated all along, the real blame lies with Malaysian Airlines for flying a commercial aircraft over a known war zone.

A war zone where the Ukrainians have and operate missiles capable of doing this. Where the separatists fighting the Ukrainians themselves have been a part of the Ukraine and Ukranian military in the past and could certainly have personnel who know how to operate them, and could also have captured the systems.

A war zone where the principle backer of the separatists, Russia, manufactured these systems, has their own, and could possibly have clandestinely provided them to the separatists.

We do not know which it was.

My bet is that the separatists, one way or the other, had the system, had people who could operate is, spotted a large aircraft overflying them and thought it was either a surveillance or cargo aircraft and shot it down.

And who would expect them not to if they had the system capable of it? It is a WAR ZONE for heaven's sake.

It was insane for Malaysian Airlines, or any other airline to fly over such a place.

 

[Air Force Brat]

I thought I wouldn't post in Ukraine thread(s) anymore (and don't worry, this is my last one, you may read on but today I participated in one of my few hobbies which is visiting 1936-8 Czechoslovak Fortifications; over the years I got to know personally some people who run Museums etc. and as you can imagine, they closely follow military issues; so today two of them discussed Ukraine and despite they're good friends and have similar background, their opinions strongly differed. Interestingly, the one who I thought would be anti-American, was strictly anti-Separatists, while the other, who I previously thought was cool, repeated weird stuff originating from Russian Internet They left the topic pretty quickly because they didn't want to get emotional, and I said just one sentence -- we stayed in front of bunker, with them wearing period uniforms over their trained bodies
So, the Ukrainian conflict can only be resolved on a battlefield, and I wonder what the outcome will be. The situation is really confusing -- yesterday I checked the map from http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-19-6939.html#post297784 and while some "anti-Fascist" areas had been lost to "Fascists" a couple of days ago (says who?

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LOL) but ... I also checked "main-stream media" "most recent" map on a major Polish server and some other (relatively large and important, I guess) area, which the "anti-Fascist" map didn't claim, was marked as still in their possession.
I'm over. Out.

Yes, I absolutely agree Jura, there are so many conflicting claims and counter-claims, I hope that Sino D posters will limit sources to those that are accurate and as much as possible unbiased, this is personal from my perspective as my on Dad was a cold warrior on the Western side, and I was/am thrilled that many of the former Soviet Republiks gained their autonomy. I post this not to start something, but to clarify, that we all have a perspective, and as your conversation with your friends illustrates, we all may have to rethink,,,, and reboot so to speak our thinking. As a US citizen, I agree that we may be sending a mixed message, which may be counter-productive as our ambivalence allows others the opportunity to take advantage, and diminishes what Ronald Reagan referred to as "Peace through Strength".

Now having stated all that, I promise to do my very best to "chill out", and encourage others to do the same, I am very interested Jura in your perspective, and value that perspective, I hope you will continue to add your very up close and balanced view, even your own stated confusion, adds clarity to my own, and I hope to others. There are many facets to this issue. respectfully brat

and I would add a thank-you Sam, as we are sometimes looking at this from two different directions, but I wanted to make my concerns known, as I find this to be a very important thread, and I am hoping to gain some perspective.

 

[Air Force Brat]

No worries.
I was wondering though if you had any perspective of why the poor old SU-25's seem to be taking such a hammering. If you believed everything that is published, you would think that the entire Ukrainian air force had been shot down at least three times. It is though clear that about a dozen have now been downed and many others hit and at the very least mission killed.

Well it most certainly does illustrate the danger of operating any 3rd or 4th gen aircraft in contested airspace, makes me wonder how the A-10s would fair without a fifth gen top cover, and you couldn't in good conscience refer to this as "highly contested airspace", these, while very effective obviously, are no-where near as dangerous as the SA-300/400s??? wow, it would make you think twice????

 

[Air Force Brat]

The Vincennes was in a conflict zone with a "bogey" bearing down on it and not communicating or transponding. They tried numerous times to make contact and warn the aircraft off...but it kept coming. In the end the Captain ordered the shoot down in order to protect his own vessel.

A horrible tragedy, and definitely a mistake...but there was blame on both sides.

I believe, as you have indicated, Wolf, that the same type of thing occurred here.

As I have stated all along, the real blame lies with Malaysian Airlines for flying a commercial aircraft over a known war zone.

A war zone where the Ukrainians have and operate missiles capable of doing this. Where the separatists fighting the Ukrainians themselves have been a part of the Ukraine and Ukranian military in the past and could certainly have personnel who know how to operate them, and could also have captured the systems.

A war zone where the principle backer of the separatists, Russia, manufactured these systems, has their own, and could possibly have clandestinely provided them to the separatists.

We do not know which it was.

My bet is that the separatists, one way or the other, had the system, had people who could operate is, spotted a large aircraft overflying them and thought it was either a surveillance or cargo aircraft and shot it down.

And who would expect them not to if they had the system capable of it? It is a WAR ZONE for heaven's sake.

It was insane for Malaysian Airlines, or any other airline to fly over such a place.

Well this has been a game changer, but lots of airlines were and continued to operate in this airspace, and my own take is that Putin really shouldn't be arming these fellows with SAM, I would have hoped that people would have taken greater precautions before and after, but they continue to "go at it", in the meantime poor Malay Airlines drew the short straw again???? Just sorrow all around, sorrow upon sorrow, I'd say there is plenty of responsibility to go around. brat

 

[Jeff Head]

Well this has been a game changer, but lots of airlines were and continued to operate in this airspace

Actually at the tome of the shoot down, most airliners were not flying over this area. Malaysian, Singapore and only a few others were...to their great peril. Foolish in the extreme...IMHO to the point of criminal negligence.

...and my own take is that Putin really shouldn't be arming these fellows with SAM/

I am not ready to say we "know" that Putin armed the separatists with these SA-11 missiles. They could have captured some from the Ukrainians who themselves operate them, and they have Ukrainian veterans in their number who could probably operate them.

We just do not know at this point.

...in the meantime poor Malay Airlines drew the short straw again????

As I say, when there is a civil war where the nation undergoing it has such missiles, where the rebels could get their hands on them by capturing them and have many veterans amongst them, and where the main supporter of the rebels manufactures said missile systems...you would be crazy to keep flying commercial airliners over that combat zone.

Just sorrow all around, sorrow upon sorrow. brat

Amen to that!

 

[delft]

The Vincennes was in a conflict zone with a "bogey" bearing down on it and not communicating or transponding. They tried numerous times to make contact and warn the aircraft off...but it kept coming. In the end the Captain ordered the shoot down in order to protect his own vessel.

A horrible tragedy, and definitely a mistake...but there was blame on both sides.

I believe, as you have indicated, Wolf, that the same type of thing occurred here.

As I have stated all along, the real blame lies with Malaysian Airlines for flying a commercial aircraft over a known war zone.

A war zone where the Ukrainians have and operate missiles capable of doing this. Where the separatists fighting the Ukrainians themselves have been a part of the Ukraine and Ukranian military in the past and could certainly have personnel who know how to operate them, and could also have captured the systems.

A war zone where the principle backer of the separatists, Russia, manufactured these systems, has their own, and could possibly have clandestinely provided them to the separatists.

We do not know which it was.

My bet is that the separatists, one way or the other, had the system, had people who could operate is, spotted a large aircraft overflying them and thought it was either a surveillance or cargo aircraft and shot it down.

And who would expect them not to if they had the system capable of it? It is a WAR ZONE for heaven's sake.

It was insane for Malaysian Airlines, or any other airline to fly over such a place.

[ No need to try and rehash or dredge up that old controversy. Stay on topic - off topic comments removed]

As for MH17 the matter has not yet been investigated. We have at least two hypotheses one of which is supported by nothing but allegations but is the basis sanctions that increase tension in Europe. But in yesterdays edition of my Dutch newspaper the Dutch airline KLM complained that they didn't know about the dangers in the area while their US colleagues had been warned not to fly there in April. And then we heard President Obama says several days ago that the US government didn't know about that danger!

 

[Sputnik]

some interesting documents

from 20.06.2014 to 20.07.2014 Ukrainian forces abandoned T-64 - 25, BTR - 11, 2S1 "Gvozdika" - 11, BM-21 "Grad" -12, D-30 Howitzer - 5, 82 mm mortar -16, Zu-23-2 - 2, trucks -5.
All of this cuptured by DNR and LNR forces
Source:

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[SouthernSky]

As for MH17 the matter has not yet been investigated.

I suspect even if a comprehensive investigation on the ground were possible delft we are never going to get a difinitive answer. The aircraft debris on the ground may yield evidence that a missile took it down, but will we ever know who took the shot? I doubt it. Suspicions abound, but that's not enough.

I will take this opportunity to thank those volunteers on the ground that took the time to search for the remains of those killed in this terrible act, some of them being citizens from my own country. Much has been said and seen, but the images of Ukranian miners volunteering their time to look for the victims reassured me that even in a war zone humanity can prevail.

 

[texx1]

This is no doubt a sensitive topic in a forum with many cold war warriors, children of cold war warriors and people of close proximity to the conflict itself. As such our biases will inevitably influence our views as well as the perceived reliability of sources especially when they favor or disfavor one's own biased opinions.

So what determines the reliability of sources? We can't go by track record since neither side has an advantage. Medias of both side of the conflict have manipulated their stories in order to achieve a better environment for itself.

Therefore, I suggest we should examine the evidences presented in every article posted here, whether the evidences contained or alluded to are sufficient enough to justify the claim made in the article for a neutral rational reader. For example, documentary evidence is better than hearsay. Publicly accessible evidences are better than unreleased evidences from anonymous sources since members are able to examine the evidences firsthand and make their own assessment.

Further, I think it's a good idea to stop using incendiary terms to describe either combatants in the conflict, namely fascists for Kiev government and terrorists for Eastern rebels.

 

[Mr T]

But in yesterdays edition of my Dutch newspaper the Dutch airline KLM complained that they didn't know about the dangers in the area

With all due respect, all KLM had to do was pick up a newspaper or do a little simple research. The rebels also weren't hiding the fact they were shooting down Ukrainian aircraft. With Russia supplying equipment, it wouldn't take an experienced member of RUSI to figure out the rebels might get some dangerous SAMs.

I assume this means that KLM was still flying over Ukraine at the time?