2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[Gloire_bb]

This is very bad. This indicates that Tehran is sliding back into old tendancies and talking instead of doing and also that they still haven't fully understood that they will never have peace until they are nuclear armed; it's non-negotiable. The new IRGC Iran should keep shut and have already been building the nuke. When asked, neither deny nor confirm it. And when it's done, test it out in the open and it's a fait accompli; everyone must now accept the new nuclear Iran that cannot be attacked. If they do that, then the clock is against the US as the longer this drags out, the closer we are to that result. If they haven't been doing that, then the clock is against Iran as it just gets poorer, salami sliced and eventually loses its fighting momentum. If it is the latter, then only Pax Sinica can save Iran... if it arrives in time.

Well, optimistic take is that Hormuz has proven to do all nuclear brinkmanship was supposed to give, but better.

Absolutely flexible choke on US, better than best estimations(I honestly doubt anyone in Tehran hoped IRGC flotillas can hold Hormuz shut for months - it was always a temporary defense against forced breaching of the blockade, yet here we are, 3 months in and they established their own deterrence instead).

Speaking from a fairness perspective, all nations that support the US/Israel should be tolled as part of their punishment and payment for supporting war crimes. China, Russia, and any truly neutral countries shouldn't be tolled because they shouldn't have to pay for the ugliness of other nations. I'm sure Iran can be reasoned with in this regard.

Frankly speaking, if 1-2 millions per ship is the price of stability, and it won't pass over every strait with castle on the side - it may be simpler to pay for everyone.
It isn't all that much per tanker, especially at current price levels.

 

[plawolf]

Assymetrical warfare beyond western comprehension, where even air superiority is somewhat useless. Don't think any other military can compete in this regard by a mile.

only problem is that the unhinged madmen you're fighting will resort to bridges and powerplants day if things don't go their way

They bombed civilian infrastructure during the Kosovo war without any madmen in charge. What’s stopping them doing the same to Iranian civilian infrastructure is Iran’s ability to respond in kind against US allies and most importantly, America’s daddy Israel. Note how strikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure tailed off soon after Iran started hitting Israeli strategically critical infrastructure like power plants and oil refineries in turn.

Trump and his ilk aren’t fundamentally different from any other US administration other than in how transparent they are about what they are actually trying to do, how ineffective they are at it, and a willingness to do the same to friends and allies to get their way.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Trump and his ilk aren’t fundamentally different from any other US administration other than in how transparent they are about what they are actually trying to do, how ineffective they are at it, and a willingness to do the same to friends and allies to get their way.

US are still US; no matter the party, decision making apparatus overall is competent.
But key decision makers are determined by elections, and as such it took visible mistakes for analytics to kick back in.

I doubt Trump saw Shahnameh, but there's more than enough republicans who did, and there's enough people in the room to say that scaring Iran with miseries is just not the most efficient way.

 

[solarz]

Iran is dead meat if they still think they don't need nukes when the 2 countries out for its blood are nuclear armed. Seems they still need more assassinations on top before somebody with a brain rises to govern the country.

While that's true from Iran's point of view, a nuclear-armed Iran is not in China's interests, and right now Iran needs Chinese support more than it needs nukes.

 

[manqiangrexue]

While that's true from Iran's point of view, a nuclear-armed Iran is not in China's interests, and right now Iran needs Chinese support more than it needs nukes.

I am a man of fairness; even if it is not in China's interest, justice should prevail above all. Iran deserves to be a nuclear power and take vengeance for everything done to it. China's support is good but China's power projection is still not at the level where it can defeat the US in the middle east. Nukes on ICBMs guarantee Iran's safety because the US/Israel would know that there is no end game and thus no point in inciting conflict against Iran.

 

[tokenanalyst]

I am a man of fairness; even if it is not in China's interest, justice should prevail above all. Iran deserves to be a nuclear power and take vengeance for everything done to it. China's support is good but China's power projection is still not at the level where it can defeat the US in the middle east. Nukes on ICBMs guarantee Iran's safety because the US/Israel would know that there is no end game and thus no point in inciting conflict against Iran.

If Iran get nukes, Everyone, in the Gulf will get nukes but If India and Pakistan haven't nuked each other already I think the Middle East could manage to live in the middle of that lake of gasoline.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If Iran get nukes, Everyone, in the Gulf will get nukes

Israel started it. If Israel has it, there's no reason anyone should have less than Israel.

but If India and Pakistan haven't nuked each other already I think the Middle East could manage to live in the middle of that lake of gasoline.

Yes, usually countries become more steady and rational once they get nukes.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Yes, usually countries become more steady and rational once they get nukes.

I don't know man, I think if we ever get to see nuclear war it could be in the Indian subcontinent, especially with the Zionist cult like direction that Modi and his party are heading India.
It will be a massacre like humanity have never seen. The first day of that war will make WW2 looks like nothing.

 

[tokenanalyst]

I don't know man, I think if we ever get to see nuclear war it could be in the Indian subcontinent, especially with the Zionist cult like direction that Modi and his party are heading India.
It will be a massacre like humanity have never seen. The first day of that war will make WW2 looks like nothing.

India and Pakistan are the only nuclear states that constantly fight each other, it get even worse, India attack Pakistan KNOWING that their bigger army could push Pakistan to the edge of using tactical nukes. I don't think will be different in the Middle East.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I don't know man, I think if we ever get to see nuclear war it could be in the Indian subcontinent, especially with the Zionist cult like direction that Modi and his party are heading India.
It will be a massacre like humanity have never seen. The first day of that war will make WW2 looks like nothing.

India and Pakistan are the only nuclear states that constantly fight each other, it get even worse, India attack Pakistan KNOWING that their bigger army could push Pakistan to the edge of using tactical nukes. I don't think will be different in the Middle East.

Israel is the country that starts all wars in that region. They're as small as an ant's butthole. They would not dare provoke a nuclear war cus they have no health on the bar. Japan looks like a sumo compared to little Israel. All peace stems from stamping down Israel.