2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[manqiangrexue]

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This is very bad. This indicates that Tehran is sliding back into old tendancies and talking instead of doing and also that they still haven't fully understood that they will never have peace until they are nuclear armed; it's non-negotiable. The new IRGC Iran should keep shut and have already been building the nuke. When asked, neither deny nor confirm it. And when it's done, test it out in the open and it's a fait accompli; everyone must now accept the new nuclear Iran that cannot be attacked. If they do that, then the clock is against the US as the longer this drags out, the closer we are to that result. If they haven't been doing that, then the clock is against Iran as it just gets poorer, salami sliced and eventually loses its fighting momentum. If it is the latter, then only Pax Sinica can save Iran... if it arrives in time.

 

[tankphobia]

This is very bad. This indicates that Tehran is sliding back into old tendancies and talking instead of doing and also that they still haven't fully understood that they will never have peace until they are nuclear armed; it's non-negotiable. The new IRGC Iran should keep shut and have already been building the nuke. When asked, neither deny nor confirm it. And when it's done, test it out in the open and it's a fait accompli; everyone must now accept the new nuclear Iran that cannot be attacked. If they do that, then the clock is against the US as the longer this drags out, the closer we are to that result. If they haven't been doing that, then the clock is against Iran as it just gets poorer, salami sliced and eventually loses its fighting momentum. If it is the latter, then only Pax Sinica can save Iran... if it arrives in time.

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We will see. So far China has not denied US account of the exchange, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's some under table diplomatic pressure from China pushing for a strait reopening also.

Trump is going to China to beg them to get involved and rare metal supply, they don't have much stick left to throw so it better be a huge carrot they are prepared to offer up.

 

[protonme18]

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Fox News’ Laura Ingraham Shares Post Saying Trump Is ‘On Verge of Making Massive Error’ With Potential China Deal​

Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping are reportedly considering a deal to allow China to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. largely to build factories on American soil.”Trump on verge of making massive error — against aides' advice: report

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— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle)

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Joke of the day

Looking in history of Dutch with China Nexperia, Panama gov in Panama Canal, the Mango eaters Marcos Phillipines with Chinese businesses and lately the Indonesian government eyeing the copper mines and technology brought by the Chinese after they mature, the Indian clutch and tongue twisting play with their local laws to grab whomever international business invested there (Apple still owing Modi billions in fines).

Some of these actions, sometimes out of greed of the local actors eyeing the greedy pork (eg. Modi, Marcoses), some is from outside state actor(mostly US business/gov) + local greedinees like Dutch with Nexperia, and the lazy Panama gov in taking over Panama Canal.

You now have a brilliant Idea, hey, why don't we gets the benefit ourselves, why not we follow Modi playbook and get the Chinese to invest here. Why let those gov grab the fat ass pork while we get nothing. We have to spend billions just to kidnap the President of another country just to grab their oil share.

Why don't we let the pork and lambs come over and we do like the others, Indonesian, Indian or the Phillipines way, we grab their business after they mature and bring their technology in.

Mexican government been thinking about it too...hey, we have all these factories here...it's time...it's time to grab them...get my greedy fat fingers into the juicy profits from these businesses....

Think about it, rather then getting the military here and there, bombings this or that, much more expensive, then laying the trap and grab all the wild boars into the cage.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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We will see. So far China has not denied US account of the exchange, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's some under table diplomatic pressure from China pushing for a strait reopening also.

Trump is going to China to beg them to get involved and rare metal supply, they don't have much stick left to throw so it better be a huge carrot they are prepared to offer up.

We had our meeting with Iran in which we no doubt told them the joint strategy forward as the US is the common enemy. Regarding China denying the US account, if we are clear with Iran and they're not worried about us turning, we typically don't like to even engage the American clown politicians.

 

[drowingfish]

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We will see. So far China has not denied US account of the exchange, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's some under table diplomatic pressure from China pushing for a strait reopening also.

Trump is going to China to beg them to get involved and rare metal supply, they don't have much stick left to throw so it better be a huge carrot they are prepared to offer up.

i dont see why anyone would be obtuse enough to not understand that China stands to lose if a toll is allowed to remain. China is the biggest beneficiary of the trade system, underscored by the freedom of navigation. If all of the critical choke points begin to charge tolls, it is no different from levying tariff on Chinese product.

 

[manqiangrexue]

i dont see why anyone would be obtuse enough to not understand that China stands to lose if a toll is allowed to remain. China is the biggest beneficiary of the trade system, underscored by the freedom of navigation. If all of the critical choke points begin to charge tolls, it is no different from levying tariff on Chinese product.

The toll is going to be selective and under Iran's discretion. It's not going to charge Chinese or Russian vessels and that's going to give them an advantage over America's "allies." Also, the tolls charged to other countries are going to be spent in large part on Chinese products and infrastructure projects because that's Iran's best route to rebuilding after this is over. Immediately, it's going to be a chain reaction and everyone's going to feel it but if your enemies feel it harder than you, it's worth it.

 

[Africablack]

The toll is going to be selective and under Iran's discretion. It's not going to charge Chinese or Russian vessels and that's going to give them an advantage over America's "allies." Also, the tolls charged to other countries are going to be spent in large part on Chinese products and infrastructure projects because that's Iran's best route to rebuilding after this is over. Immediately, it's going to be a chain reaction and everyone's going to feel it but if your enemies feel it harder than you, it's worth it.

It's not worth it in the long run because today it's Iran, tomorrow another country will do the same to China as Iran is doing to the US. You can't base your foreign policy on obsessively one upping the US.

 

[manqiangrexue]

It's not worth it in the long run because today it's Iran, tomorrow another country will do the same to China as Iran is doing to the US. You can't base your foreign policy on obsessively one upping the US.

If they were going to do it to China, then failing to support Iran isn't going to stop them. Countries make their decisions based on the power dynamic. The idea's already in their heads; everyone knows what's possible. The difference is if these hostile nations think they'll end up making money or getting thier navies sunk. Iran can only do this if it is too strong for America to prevent it. This is obvious to any country considering it.

Speaking from a fairness perspective, all nations that support the US/Israel should be tolled as part of their punishment and payment for supporting war crimes. China, Russia, and any truly neutral countries shouldn't be tolled because they shouldn't have to pay for the ugliness of other nations. I'm sure Iran can be reasoned with in this regard.

 

[protonme18]

US midterm election Tuesday, 3 November 2026....the most important dates in Trump's mind....not 6 weeks, not 1 month, 2 months, 3, 4, 5.....but Tuesday, 3 November 2026

Iran just keep hold out till this date, then decide what's next. It's like mouth says it's important, the eyes says its important organ, the ear says it important....the brain says it's important. They forgot about the anus....the anus is most important of all. If the anus holds up, the eyes watery, the mouth salivates, the brains can't think anymore.

Iran is like the anus, holding the straits of hormuz all locked and tied up. Let's see who can hold out more

I think not even 3rd November....once the polls hit rock bottom for the Republican party, they can't turn around their poll numbers. Too late for marketing, ads, money expenditure, to swing the sentiments.....I guess roughly around Aug/Sep...the Republicans districts all voters numbers tanking.....with gas prices around 6~7 dollars, the inflation up...they have no time to swing back....will be a wipeout.

The fun will start on Trump. 1st time impeach fail, 2nd time impeach fail...will the 3rd time be the lucky number

Aug/Sep....the Iranians hold till this date....and maybe will get a better deal by then....so far, all the current deal rotten. Just wait more....dig more hold underground....stock up the missiles.....I see around June/July Trump will be super desperate and the Zionist camp/planners will push for another attack. They are planning and co-ordinating

So Iran, better get ready....this time, big ones. All the targets should be marked in. Radars, power plants, hotels, water treatments plant. Israel, GCC and UAE....all locked in the area to be hit.

Even surprise with ship attack. Those small drone ships ala Ukraine how they took out Russian black sea fleet.....a good idea copy...a few more US ships hit, they will have a hard time replacing the parts/maintenance....

Goes Maximum with Trump...with Trump, you gotta play all or nothing with this guy...

 

[Black Wolf]

Another excellent and in-depth analysis — this guy really has a very strong grasp of the subject.