2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

gabriel.shenton said:

Iran had 47 years to invent the bomb and didn't...besides people saying they spent 100s billions USD on their nuclear program and for what? nothing to show for the money spent, terrible mistake.

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Yeah, but Iranian leadership has been stupid and spends only 2,1% on defence. Not sure they have spent 100 billion USD.

Anyone who spend around 2% or lower deserves what is coming for them in the future - period. History does often repeat itself.


Spend 2% or lower, then just die. It's simple as that.

Israel spends 7,8% of its GDP and that is why they are able to decimate everyone they have a border with - and even expanding border of Israel by illegal annexing of territories in Syria and Lebanon, along with Palestinian territories.

Where as, Ukraine, that is also at war, spends 40% of its GDP on defense, which is why it's difficult for Russia to advance rapidly forward despite the fact that Russia spends 7,5%.

However, there is no doubt that Israel did what it could to sabotage the nuclear weapons development, by sabotaging the programme with Stuxnet virus in combination with assasinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.

But at the same time, former Ayatollah did a massive mistake with its fatwa against nukes. He should have looked to Pakistan which is officially called Islamic Republic of Pakistan, and Pakistan is able to crater all BJP-Hindutva Modis, so Iran should have gotten nukes as well since Israel already has them.

All in all, there has been lots of mistakes made and money wasted. The so-called deterrence with proxy pro-Iranian militias hasn't been that good except for Houthis. Iran trusted the result of Israel - Hezbollah war from 2006 way too much, thinking that Hezbollah may be equally "good and useful" 20 years later, while Iran was ignoring how anti-Israel goverments were attacked one after another since 2011 (Syria and Libya) comes to mind, which indirectly started to weaken Hezbollah and Hamas position from 2011 and onwards.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Yeah, but Iranian leadership has been stupid and spends only 2,1% on defence. Not sure they have spent 100 billion USD.

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They're actually a very very innovative people building their own planes and missiles while under sanction. The stupid part is that they didn't develop a nuke.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Anyone who spend around 2% or lower deserves what is coming for them in the future - period. History does often repeat itself.

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Spend 2% or lower, then just die. It's simple as that.

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And of course, this is also the stupid part LOL. "Anyone who does X (where X represents a personal choice of no harm to others) should just die," is pretty much the most iconic line for someone smouldering in rage at home on his computer cus his life sucks.

And it's funny that you posted this webpage because it shows China at a very chill 1.7% while being the beast of the world in terms of military development and buildup. After decades of spending 5-10X what China was spending, the US is now behind on fighter jets, missiles, drones, radars, etc... and calls China no longer a near peer but a peer. It's like you posted that link just to slap yourself.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Israel spends 7,8% of its GDP and that is why they are able to decimate everyone they have a border with - and even expanding border of Israel by illegal annexing of territories in Syria and Lebanon, along with Palestinian territories.

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Israel would get the shit kicked out of them if they weren't supported by the US. Iran would missile-spam them to death with their 7.8% whatever and not have to save anything for the surrounding US dogs. If Iran had nukes, Israel/USA wouldn't even dare touch it even with a weaker conventional military because there's no endgame, not even one they can imagine or hope for.

The smartest thing about Chinese armament is that they didn't spend a ton of money on conventional military items until the technology was competitive with America. They used minimum deterrent with nukes and saved the extra military spending on development of the economy and technology. And now they are in a position to build more, build better and build it for much cheaper.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Where as, Ukraine, that is also at war, spends 40% of its GDP on defense, which is why it's difficult for Russia to advance rapidly forward despite the fact that Russia spends 7,5%.

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That is Ukraine's North Korean sacrifice to survive. That's also why Russia can do this all day while Ukraine's basically a piece of shit already with no idea what its future is like. With its stamina, Russia will still win. If they were smart, if they wanted a future, they would make peace with or even join Russia. Then they can drop their military spending, rely on Russian military spending, and use the money to build their cities so they can get back to being a normal, potentially even prosperous country again. Military spending is a sacrifice; it is not the goal and it is not a flex.

The UAE is continuing to slide headfirst into its own throat, speedrunning an inevitable collapse and trying really hard to become the next Libya or Iraq with a better PR and luxury malls.

They genuinely don’t seem to realize that geographically, Iran alone is more than enough to turn them into a failed state; the US isn’t even required for that equation.

For some bizarre reason, they’ve really started seeing themselves as equal, or even superior to Iran, probably because they built shiny skyscrapers and bought some expensive toys.

Which is a very funny way to measure survivability in an actual regional war.

Brother, you are a wealthy trade hub with barely 1 million native people.

Iran is an actual civilization-state with 90 million people, a domestic industry, missile production, strategic depth, mountains, and forty years of experience surviving sanctions and pressure.

Those are not remotely the same category of country.

Serb said:

The UAE is continuing to slide headfirst into its own throat, speedrunning an inevitable collapse and trying really hard to become the next Libya or Iraq with a better PR and luxury malls.

They genuinely don’t seem to realize that geographically, Iran alone is more than enough to turn them into a failed state; the US isn’t even required for that equation.

For some bizarre reason, they’ve really started seeing themselves as equal, or even superior to Iran, probably because they built shiny skyscrapers and bought some expensive toys.

Which is a very funny way to measure survivability in an actual regional war.

Brother, you are a wealthy trade hub with barely 1 million native people.

Iran is an actual civilization-state with 90 million people, a domestic industry, missile production, strategic depth, mountains, and forty years of experience surviving sanctions and pressure.

Those are not remotely the same category of country.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2052457674198188496

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Yes, I really can't see all those influencers, Instagram thots, crypto bros and tax dodging lawyers and bankers queuing up to fight for the Emirs.

Serb said:

The UAE is continuing to slide headfirst into its own throat, speedrunning an inevitable collapse and trying really hard to become the next Libya or Iraq with a better PR and luxury malls.

They genuinely don’t seem to realize that geographically, Iran alone is more than enough to turn them into a failed state; the US isn’t even required for that equation.

For some bizarre reason, they’ve really started seeing themselves as equal, or even superior to Iran, probably because they built shiny skyscrapers and bought some expensive toys.

Which is a very funny way to measure survivability in an actual regional war.

Brother, you are a wealthy trade hub with barely 1 million native people.

Iran is an actual civilization-state with 90 million people, a domestic industry, missile production, strategic depth, mountains, and forty years of experience surviving sanctions and pressure.

Those are not remotely the same category of country.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2052457674198188496

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Maikeru said:

Yes, I really can't see all those influencers, Instagram thots, crypto bros and tax dodging lawyers and bankers queuing up to fight for the Emirs.

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As someone here said: "What are they going to throw at them? Their golden toilets."
GCC was make weak by the US so they will never represent a threat to Israel.

Has US retreated from their wars because of any deal or ceasefire in their history? I don't recall much, the only time I see US runs away is they been harassed or their expenses and price needs to pay goes higher from what they can gain from staying in the fight. Take example the Korean war with the Chinese, it goes for 2~3 years when calculation doesn't match, they retreated. No ceasefire no nothing no deal....just retreated. Afghanistan war, it last over a decade, until the calculation/expenses doesn't match anymore for the value to gain holding bases there, it just took flight just like that. Vietnam war, no deal, no ceasefire, the Northern Vietnamese keep harassing, causing them pain and the war injuries and soldiers draft to replace them started eating into US middle class (voters bank) when the thought of sending their sons and daughters to foreign war to die, result in movement. Guess what, it's pain to the voters when facing the draft, not out of a good hearted, kind humanity heart about peace or whatever nonsense they try to sell to you about ending the war. The bad outweight the good in the calculation of things.

Now back to the "Straits of Hormuz", the Iran war.....this war, yes US losses, but the current losses still doesn't outweight the good that they need to keep stay in the fight, to gain back their influence and confrol and make Iranians submits.

Imagine all the bad outcome if they tail and runs away, just like Vietnam war, Afghanistan war, Korean war.........the petrol dollar will be hit, their colonial fwd base to control the middle east Israel, will be isolated, the world economy choke point falls into influence of another geopolitical rivals bla bla bla....the outcome is very bad if they retreated and let go.

Forget the nonsense you read about their doctrine or posture to focus their own hemisphere....total bullshit. At the moment, they still can endure the pain, the base losses, the expenditure because the current benefit fars outweight the negative.

Only by Iran keep at it....hit those petrol dollar influence, whack those US biz own refineries, Black Rock capital investment, hit their data center, punch a hole into their Navy ships, planes refuelers, radars.....so when the losses accumalate and started pilling up, hit their votebanks, and they need to started drafting their middle class sons/daughters into the war......you will see the scale started to shift.....you don't need ceasefire, deal or whatever the nonsense being blurted out in the media (those are just intelligence influence campaign), they will ownself retreat and gives you whatever deal free of charge to stop their own losses, influence deteoration further.

Look at how they runs out from Afghanistan bases....but when the Intel started calculation of the cost benefit of staying....they want back to come back into Afghanistan again. Don't talk honor of deals with a country for 200 years, using whatever war to expand their influence. That country must be beaten thoroughly and unfortunately need to be broken up, split their states so they won't become further menace to the world. Yes you need to break them into states. I would says, countries against this empire need to start put influence into Texas, California and break them up....

protonme18 said:

Has US retreated from their wars because of any deal or ceasefire in their history? I don't recall much, the only time I see US runs away is they been harassed or their expenses and price needs to pay goes higher from what they can gain from staying in the fight. Take example the Korean war with the Chinese, it goes for 2~3 years when calculation doesn't match, they retreated. No ceasefire no nothing no deal....just retreated. Afghanistan war, it last over a decade, until the calculation/expenses doesn't match anymore for the value to gain holding bases there, it just took flight just like that. Vietnam war, no deal, no ceasefire, the Northern Vietnamese keep harassing, causing them pain and the war injuries and soldiers draft to replace them started eating into US middle class (voters bank) when the thought of sending their sons and daughters to foreign war to die, result in movement. Guess what, it's pain to the voters when facing the draft, not out of a good hearted, kind humanity heart about peace or whatever nonsense they try to sell to you about ending the war. The bad outweight the good in the calculation of things.

Now back to the "Straits of Hormuz", the Iran war.....this war, yes US losses, but the current losses still doesn't outweight the good that they need to keep stay in the fight, to gain back their influence and confrol and make Iranians submits.

Imagine all the bad outcome if they tail and runs away, just like Vietnam war, Afghanistan war, Korean war.........the petrol dollar will be hit, their colonial fwd base to control the middle east Israel, will be isolated, the world economy choke point falls into influence of another geopolitical rivals bla bla bla....the outcome is very bad if they retreated and let go.

Forget the nonsense you read about their doctrine or posture to focus their own hemisphere....total bullshit. At the moment, they still can endure the pain, the base losses, the expenditure because the current benefit fars outweight the negative.

Only by Iran keep at it....hit those petrol dollar influence, whack those US biz own refineries, Black Rock capital investment, hit their data center, punch a hole into their Navy ships, planes refuelers, radars.....so when the losses accumalate and started pilling up, hit their votebanks, and they need to started drafting their middle class sons/daughters into the war......you will see the scale started to shift.....you don't need ceasefire, deal or whatever the nonsense being blurted out in the media (those are just intelligence influence campaign), they will ownself retreat and gives you whatever deal free of charge to stop their own losses, influence deteoration further.

Look at how they runs out from Afghanistan bases....but when the Intel started calculation of the cost benefit of staying....they want back to come back into Afghanistan again. Don't talk honor of deals with a country for 200 years, using whatever war to expand their influence. That country must be beaten thoroughly and unfortunately need to be broken up, split their states so they won't become further menace to the world. Yes you need to break them into states. I would says, countries against this empire need to start put influence into Texas, California and break them up....

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Previous wars only caused limited inconvenience to Americans.

This war made gas cost $5-$8/gallon for everyone in the States. There is a fairly limited amount of time that the American population will put up with that.

US currently in a bad situation, Trump action really "expedited" the decline...retreating from the Straits of Hormuz means the end of petrol dollar. Retreating from the GCC means losing entire middle east influence and key geopolitical chess piece. Means the national debt of 39 trillions dollars will come a calling very very soon. No matter how much navy ships gets blown up, damage, bases destroyed, planes shot down......seems like it can't never retreat, can never back off knowing so much at stake. It's like now it's a house of card now wobbling in a very last match sticks foundation holding the entire house of dollars, influence waiting to crumble.....it can't get out on a good deal, any deal, seems to be a bad hand, any agreement presented, seems to be in the loss/red no matter which take or version put on the table. Not even a tiny win. That's why it can't extract itself out, and each weeks, months, there's price to be paid. Ammunition spends, damage ships, soldiers expenses, radars, planes shot down.....it's bleeding money each day. It has turn itself into piracy(proudly so, when Trump claims they are pirates now, har har har) and looking to find fundings, extorting UAE (this coconut group also now desperate as they themselves falls into quagmire) selling the oil to give 50% to the Americans. I read in Syria, US oil truck tankers trying to road out the stolen Syrian oils get attacked or blown up....it's trying to find funding to continue the operation and desperate need to pull in "allies" to share the burden and cost. Trump taunting the Kimchis Korean to sent in their warship, saying their oil tanker blown up by the Iranians and asking the South Kims to send in the calvary, which I think the South Kims are much smarter to falls to the scammer since they are pretty good scammer themselves in nature. The Iranians are like a mad bull dog, desperately biting the legs of the American, not letting go, like a bulldog sinking it's teeth deeper and deeper, not willing to budge until it gets it full and just compensation (imagine 40 years, 40 years of coconut American sanctioning them, oh boy, it's pay back now.....the US never even payback for their colonial black slaves reparation what do you think they will payback the Iranians?) Compensation the American can't afford, or ill afford to pay looking at it's own financials at the moment.....The Russian with its Ukraine issue, the American with it's Iran issue....both bleeding badly each day, weeks and months. The zealots Zionist meanwhile trying to milk all it's American influence knowing it's the dying empire trying to milk it's last worth to get 1 more meter of land, 1 more meter each day, another meter, while it's idiotic bully giant US still has some use/influence left in the middle east before papa says goodbye. They are both using each other, the zealots Zionist, uses the Americans for their zealot dreams of Greater Israel, the Americans uses the zionist for their Geopolitic chess piece in middle east....I let you use me, as I use you....a symbiotic relationship, where both think they are the master in this symbiosis parasitic relationship. The Europeans more then happy to ship more Jews out from their own land, sending them back to the Arab world.....less for me...means more problem for you in exchange getting more Somalians, Indians, Africans and Muslim back in. Ship the Jews out, get the Muslim, Hindus and Africans in....very weird paradoxical choice which now cause all sorts of problem of their own right wing group screaming illegals immigrants (most probably because of their different color) then anything else....

siegecrossbow said:

I don’t understand what they hope to achieve by sanctioning Mizar. Their bread and butter is not from Western firms anyway and there is no guarantee that Chinese firms will comply with the sanction. Feels like a huge winology move.

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I don’t think there is serious rational thinking going on anymore. It’s almost like a weird conditioned response where their one and only response to any and everything they don’t like is sanctions, irrespective of whether that’s effective or what the fallout might be.

It’s just like an insane person keep trying the same failed trick repeatedly and being genuinely surprised each time it doesn’t work.

China just used its anti-sanction mechanism, so it will for sure do so again here. So these sanctions are going to have minimal effects and may even achieve the opposite and make these companies even more profitable and capable in the medium to long term.

In the short term, there is a massive risk that these companies will just shrug and say, in for a penny in for a pound, congratulations Iran, the Americans just unlocked for you militarily grade imaging and targeting grade tracks. Enjoy.

sheogorath said:

Another F-35 squawks 7700 and lands in the UAE, though at this point it seems suspect and I wouldn't put it past the US to do fake squawks to get to deploy aircrafts closer to Iran without triggering a response

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2053737955986927780

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This now absolutely blatant cheap tricks where both the US and local hosts are playing along to salami slice to gain the most petty of advantages and also to test how opfor responds. If Iran lets this go, expect more blatant provocations until Iran pushes back.