Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
I think these days the discourse of EUV bottlenecks for China are both lenses/mirrors (forget which) that only Zeiss can make it on earth and various photomask from Japan
Laughs in 5 years behind reality.
Pundits : Yeah but cyyna is decades behind. Zeiss has centuries of muhh experience
The Germans need rare earths from China for making those products.
Don't be too harsh on the guy, remember that Western media has no idea what China is doing with EUV so it's easy to be 5 year behind reality.
Most people still think China doesn't even have any DUV at all
453% annual revenue growth will match Huawei in 1.5 years, and match Nvidia in 3.2 years. Even a more conservative cited 185% annual growth requires 2.5 years to match Huawei, or 5.5 years to match Nvidia, which hardly "long way to go". What did you mean by "long way to go"? 10-15 years? 20-30 years? Never?
Also, Cambricon+Huawei serves the Chinese domestic market, so comparing it to Nvidia global revenue is very disingenuous goal posting shifting. Nvidia's revenue in China is collapsing so Cambricon could overtake it. The point is US exports controls backfired. Absolute relative revenue is disingenuous and completely irrelevant at the rate of 185-453% annual growth anyways.
EUV mirrors are the least of the bottleneck. Zeiss mirrors are great but that doesn't stop China from develop them and they have been developing them for almost two decades. China has been making bragg mirrors for EUV since the early 2000s.
The issue is that without export controls or minimal export controls any EUV tool would be secondary at best or a research tool at worst. Now, without ASML competition the risk of developing a commercial EUV machine lowers to zero because the nationwide investment will payoff as the big IC design houses can get their chips made. That is what Think Tank stooges don't understand. These export controls lower the risk of investment in the domestic supply chain even if that means reduced margins for a while.
Yes, it sucks for SMIC to wait for a domestic machine to be develop but for domestic lithography companies and researchers this is an opportunity in a lifetime.
exactly! we are going to see this happen very soon
if you remove the competition completely because of "national security", everyone will be backing the domestic development with resources and money
china's first complete EUV systems will probably be pretty bad compared to ASML at first, but it will still be the undisputed champion for the entire Chinese chip ecosystem because the US has cut ASML off.
The commercial incentive to make chips in China is NOT going to go away because Think Tank driven "National Security" clownery.
In the distant past when ICs fabrication was more military driven, MAYBE, because the slugginesh of military procurement destroy any need for speed and efficiency, but in today's world were companies are looking for performance, at highly competitive company like Huawei is going to move Heavens, Earth and the 4th Dimension to get those chips make and they have the national backing of pretty good research institutions, hefty funding and more.
Pretty much like SMIC with equipment, making chips was not the situation that Huawei wished to be in because it was pretty Liberal minded company, they would have prefered to keep US companies as their suppliers, but is the situation that US stooges put the company in.