PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[zhejang]

Whether Taiwan can replenish its weapons and equipment seems to depend on the severity of the regional conflict. If the PLA decides to resolutely strike any foreign aircraft and ships that intervene in the defense zone, then there is no doubt that it will be difficult for them to obtain any supplies. At the same time, I also agree that it will be much more difficult for Taiwan to obtain supplies. However, if the PLA does not want to go to war with the US military directly, I doubt that aircraft such as transport planes will be shot down.

If the PLAAF and PLAN create a blockade of Taiwan than no ship or plane can enter without being shot down and if the PLARF bomb the airports and ports than you can’t supply anyways because if no where to dock or land no supplies would get off. I don’t think it would be to hard to stop Taiwan from getting supplies

 

[4Tran]

Whether Taiwan can replenish its weapons and equipment seems to depend on the severity of the regional conflict. If the PLA decides to resolutely strike any foreign aircraft and ships that intervene in the defense zone, then there is no doubt that it will be difficult for them to obtain any supplies. At the same time, I also agree that it will be much more difficult for Taiwan to obtain supplies. However, if the PLA does not want to go to war with the US military directly, I doubt that aircraft such as transport planes will be shot down.

China would only go to war with Taiwan if a red line has been crossed. By that point, I can't see how China would allow any American aircraft or ship to break their blockade.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

I am extremely pessimistic about this possibility. Currently, the other side has already invested ambitions and funds that are disproportionate to its capabilities, especially in military technology. How can you expect an entity that has already decided to purchase large quantities of equipment at any cost to surrender?

Taiwan arms purchases from the US is nothing more than the US collecting extortion money from Taiwan. The actual platforms and systems purchased are obsolete and useless against the PLA. Taiwan actually has the capability to produce supersonic antiship missiles: so why are they purchasing obsolete Harpoons (a weapons system that the US armed forces themselves have been phasing out)? Same can be said for the F-16.

 

[zhejang]

Taiwan arms purchases from the US is nothing more than the US collecting extortion money from Taiwan. The actual platforms and systems purchased are obsolete and useless against the PLA. Taiwan actually has the capability to produce supersonic antiship missiles: so why are they purchasing obsolete Harpoons (a weapons system that the US armed forces themselves have been phasing out)? Same can be said for the F-16.

I do largely agree for the most part but they do have some useful weapons like HIMARS, and the reason they buy harpoons is for mainly 2 reason.
A. Is the main reason, they just simply don’t have the capability to mass produce enough
B. Also a reason but not the main reason is more variety

 

[tamsen_ikard]

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If Xi promised this, then Taiwan will be extremely emboldened to pursue the Independence agenda while they think they have a window.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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If Xi promised this, then Taiwan will be extremely emboldened to pursue the Independence agenda while they think they have a window.

That would be a pretty stupid interpretation regardless of what Xi "promised." At best, he said that China's very patient so nothing is rushed and nothing has to happen during Trump's term. It's gonna be frog legs hotpot if they think that means China's hands are tied until Trump is gone.

 

[Dante80]

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If Xi promised this, then Taiwan will be extremely emboldened to pursue the Independence agenda while they think they have a window.

Taiwan does not have an independence agenda. They have a "keep the status quo as is, we don't want to die" agenda.

Yes, there are more fringe attitudes and politicians there, but what I referenced above is roughly what the public wants. And they are quick to punish said attitudes when they go out of line (see the latest recall votes for example).

 

[4Tran]

What probably happened was that some Chinese diplomat told an American that China wasn't interested in launching an attack on Taiwan and Trump put his own spin on things. It doesn't mean anything other than getting some talking heads talking.

Taiwan does not have an independence agenda. They have a "keep the status quo as is, we don't want to die" agenda.

Yes, there are more fringe attitudes and politicians there, but what I referenced above is roughly what the public wants. And they are quick to punish said attitudes when they go out of line (see the latest recall votes for example).

Yeah, if Pan-Green supporters wanted to push independence, they'd rush to join the military. And as that's the last thing they'd ever do, there is no such movement. Instead, the politics in Taiwan tend to be extremely internally focused.