If the PLAAF and PLAN create a blockade of Taiwan than no ship or plane can enter without being shot down and if the PLARF bomb the airports and ports than you can’t supply anyways because if no where to dock or land no supplies would get off. I don’t think it would be to hard to stop Taiwan from getting supplies
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
China would only go to war with Taiwan if a red line has been crossed. By that point, I can't see how China would allow any American aircraft or ship to break their blockade.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
Taiwan arms purchases from the US is nothing more than the US collecting extortion money from Taiwan. The actual platforms and systems purchased are obsolete and useless against the PLA. Taiwan actually has the capability to produce supersonic antiship missiles: so why are they purchasing obsolete Harpoons (a weapons system that the US armed forces themselves have been phasing out)? Same can be said for the F-16.
I do largely agree for the most part but they do have some useful weapons like HIMARS, and the reason they buy harpoons is for mainly 2 reason.
A. Is the main reason, they just simply don’t have the capability to mass produce enough
B. Also a reason but not the main reason is more variety
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That would be a pretty stupid interpretation regardless of what Xi "promised." At best, he said that China's very patient so nothing is rushed and nothing has to happen during Trump's term. It's gonna be frog legs hotpot if they think that means China's hands are tied until Trump is gone.
Taiwan does not have an independence agenda. They have a "keep the status quo as is, we don't want to die" agenda.
Yes, there are more fringe attitudes and politicians there, but what I referenced above is roughly what the public wants. And they are quick to punish said attitudes when they go out of line (see the latest recall votes for example).
What probably happened was that some Chinese diplomat told an American that China wasn't interested in launching an attack on Taiwan and Trump put his own spin on things. It doesn't mean anything other than getting some talking heads talking.
Yeah, if Pan-Green supporters wanted to push independence, they'd rush to join the military. And as that's the last thing they'd ever do, there is no such movement. Instead, the politics in Taiwan tend to be extremely internally focused.
The DPP likes to make such statements about independence, but the members of their party also do business and have interests in the mainland, it's just that it is hidden from the public. They have no balls to come out and step on the red lines set by the PRC.
Trump most likely misinterpreted or deliberately spun a statement from Xi to make himself appear strong in front of a local crowd while he's being cooked regarding the Epstein files. To make people believe that China is "scared" of Trump when in reality China is playing the long game. The US by the time Trump steps down will be ruined especially in terms of foreign policy. And Taiwan will essentially have no choice by the time of early 2030s and have to accept the reality if they don't want any consequences.
I think people that think that Taiwan will declare independence are seriously misguided. The DPP is seriously unpopular now: the failure of the recall initiatives, the imprisonment of Ko Wen-je, and the fact that William 赖皮 is a total idiot and stooge (he only won with 40%) all point to this.
Furthermore, Chinese soft power has been rising this year, while America's has been declining. Trump's tariffs are deeply unpopular, and 赖狗's dickriding of the USA and Japan is not helping. So many people in Taiwan scroll Douyin, watch C-Dramas, and buy Chinese shit from Temu. China is getting richer and richer. Beijing and Shanghai's GDP per capita has almost surpassed that of Taiwan. There are numerous individuals like 馆长 engaging in United Front Work, and showing off China's power.
Even though the toads are delusional, they by no means represent all of the Taiwanese. It's only these mentally ill/descendants of Japanese collaborators that truly oppose China. Notice how China's really only been attacking people claiming Taiwan independence, and not the KMT/TPP? I think people are also all disgusted with these sorts of people - especially when you consider how most of them look and act.
Taiwanese people are still Chinese after all; they are pragmatic and smart. When you speak the same language, have the same history, eat the same food, it is easy to identify with the upcoming strongest state in the world. This is especially true among the Indigenous peoples, Hakkas and Waishengren. With time, Chinese identity will re-emerge.
I think peaceful reunification (although with significant coercion as well, as has been the case for a long time) is the most likely, and optimal outcome. It probably would also be a sort of 1C2S, with the DPP being banned to make it more palatable for the remaining Taiwanese that are still on the fence. The only thing we should fear, that could lead to a violent outcome would be a color revolution brought on by the USA, like 1989, Sunflower, Umbrella and 2019 HK. However, I believe that this probability would be low, and even if it did happen, the success rate would be low as well.
Furthermore, Chinese soft power has been rising this year, while America's has been declining. Trump's tariffs are deeply unpopular, and 赖狗's dickriding of the USA and Japan is not helping. So many people in Taiwan scroll Douyin, watch C-Dramas, and buy Chinese shit from Temu. China is getting richer and richer. Beijing and Shanghai's GDP per capita has almost surpassed that of Taiwan. There are numerous individuals like 馆长 engaging in United Front Work, and showing off China's power.
Even though the toads are delusional, they by no means represent all of the Taiwanese. It's only these mentally ill/descendants of Japanese collaborators that truly oppose China. Notice how China's really only been attacking people claiming Taiwan independence, and not the KMT/TPP? I think people are also all disgusted with these sorts of people - especially when you consider how most of them look and act.
Taiwanese people are still Chinese after all; they are pragmatic and smart. When you speak the same language, have the same history, eat the same food, it is easy to identify with the upcoming strongest state in the world. This is especially true among the Indigenous peoples, Hakkas and Waishengren. With time, Chinese identity will re-emerge.
I think peaceful reunification (although with significant coercion as well, as has been the case for a long time) is the most likely, and optimal outcome. It probably would also be a sort of 1C2S, with the DPP being banned to make it more palatable for the remaining Taiwanese that are still on the fence. The only thing we should fear, that could lead to a violent outcome would be a color revolution brought on by the USA, like 1989, Sunflower, Umbrella and 2019 HK. However, I believe that this probability would be low, and even if it did happen, the success rate would be low as well.