2025 Victory Day parade thread (workup, 3rd Sept)

[zyklon]

Ayi: Two types of suicide drones similar to the Shahed will not participate in the parade, because of their “negative impact.”

PLA's “Shahed” is actually derived from the Harpy, such as the ASN-301 anti-radiation drone. It may be out of concern that some people with ulterior motives would link it to Russia and Iran, or because it is too “low-tech” and gives the impression that PLA still relies on quantity, although the SVO shows that the quantity of ammunition is indeed important.

It's funny how the circle of defense procurement works out.

IAI Harpy -> ASN-301 / JWS-01 -> HESA Shahed-131 / Shahed-136 -> Alabuga Geran-2

 

[EmoBirb]

You guys are forgetting the key advantage of Cruise missiles and the biggest drawback of ballistic missiles. Cruise Missile fly at much lower altitude, and thus they can avoid radar detection due to Earth's curvature. Fast cruise missiles can only be detected with maybe a few seconds reaction time.

On the other hand, Ballistic missiles are lofted in space and are detected thousands of KMs away. This allows defenders long time to launch multiple missiles, calculate trajectory and more. As interception technology gets better, ballistic missiles will be much easier to intercept and fast low flying cruise missiles might be the only viable option.

Imo the discussion is redundant anyway because I doubt in the near future a Zircon will be fired at a Chinese vessel or a YJ-21 at a Russian ship.

The comparisons should be with US, British and Japanese systems. But that's als redundant because for the most part there are no systems that are comparable to what the Chinese/Russians field. Offensive, long range, high precision capabilities for surface combatants have been somewhat neglected in western oriented Navies, compared to Eastern peers.

My point of contention was the perceived need to compare these fundamentally different missiles with different strengths, weaknesses and use cases. Apples (Hypersonic Airbreathing Cruise Missile) and Oranges (Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile).

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Imo the discussion is redundant anyway because I doubt in the near future a Zircon will be fired at a Chinese vessel or a YJ-21 at a Russian ship.

The comparisons should be with US, British and Japanese systems. But that's als redundant because for the most part there are no systems that are comparable to what the Chinese/Russians field. Offensive, long range, high precision capabilities for surface combatants have been somewhat neglected in western oriented Navies, compared to Eastern peers.

My point of contention was the perceived need to compare these fundamentally different missiles with different strengths, weaknesses and use cases. Apples (Hypersonic Airbreathing Cruise Missile) and Oranges (Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile).

I started the conversation in the first place not to talk about whether US or China's enemies will fire Zircon/Similar cruise missiles at China or not, but to bring out the fact that a scramjet powered cruise missile similar to Zircon is a very important technology to have and China currently does not have this technology.

People brought YJ-21 as something China has as an alternative to Hypersonic cruise missiles. But We have discussed how Cruise missiles have different advantages and thus a Ballistic missile is not an alternative to a cruise missile. The best approach is to have both.

So, hopefully Chinese will develop a Scramjet powered cruise missile in the near future. Its a gap that they should fulfill.

 

[EmoBirb]

So, hopefully Chinese will develop a Scramjet powered cruise missile in the near future. Its a gap that they should fulfill.

I'm certain several technology demonstrators are being trialed as we speak

 

[sutton999]

View attachment 157268
1

convertable wings?

 

[Nautilus]

Isn't this thread about the Victory Day Parade? Why is there so much irrelevant discussion here?

 

[REautomaton]

The PLA’s HCM is like an urban legend at this point—I’ve heard about it in so many circles, including from some pretty reliable sources hinting at its existence. And honestly, I have no doubt China could develop an HCM that outperforms HACM (just look at all those research papers floating around). The real question is whether we’ll actually see it in this parade. I’m leaning pessimistic—my bet is they’ll just roll out the DF-19 as a stand-in instead.

 

[AndrewJ]

The PLA’s HCM is like an urban legend at this point—I’ve heard about it in so many circles, including from some pretty reliable sources hinting at its existence. And honestly, I have no doubt China could develop an HCM that outperforms HACM (just look at all those research papers floating around). The real question is whether we’ll actually see it in this parade. I’m leaning pessimistic—my bet is they’ll just roll out the DF-19 as a stand-in instead.

So, hopefully Chinese will develop a Scramjet powered cruise missile in the near future. Its a gap that they should fulfill.

Guancha Trios already confirmed, the real scramjet-powered cruise missile speeding over Mach 5, aka DF-XX (not DF-100), will be showcased in the Parade. China will have all three typical types of hypersonic missiles, i.e. waverider-shaped glider (DF-17/27), double-cone shaped (DF-21D/YJ-21), scramjet-powered (DF-XX).

What they said in the podcast:

US is now trying to clone China's hypersonic missile types, based on what they've known. They know China doesn't have scramjet-powered ones by now, so they cancelled scramjet-powered HACM and thought that's ok. And they're developing Mako now.
But a month later, (after seeing the Chinese parade,) they will find all hypersonic missiles they're developing are all already outdated! China is now mastering all the collections of hypersonic family.

Relevant part is from 7:10:

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[REautomaton]

Guancha Trios already confirmed, the real scramjet-powered cruise missile speeding over Mach 5, aka DF-XX (not DF-100), will be showcased in the Parade. China will have all three typical types of hypersonic missiles, i.e. waverider-shaped glider (DF-17/27), double-cone shaped (DF-21D/YJ-21), scramjet-powered (DF-XX).

What they said in the podcast:


Relevant part is from 7:10:

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I think I must’ve missed that part—thanks for the heads up!

 

[Blitzo]

View attachment 157268
That's not Dark Sword is it?
View attachment 157269

I had assumed the project was long dead but there were rumours in 2023 that 家有神兽 prominently featured it in his video were it was acting as J-20S's CCA because he got a nudge on the shoulder.

The picture is so generic and poor quality that it could be anything.

At this point, whether the dark sword planform is adopted by any of the CCA/UCAV platforms or not, imo is unimportant.

They probably have considered multiple dozen interesting looking CCA/UCAV planforms by now that are all viable, so Dark Sword as a planform/shape is mostly irrelevant. It should just be seen as one of likely many planform options.