The Kashmir conflict 2025.

madhusudan.tim

New Member
Registered Member
The Pakistani Defense Minister is literally saying "it is likely that [indecipherable] India will attempt an incursion of Pakistan and will engage Pakistan militarily."


While senior Indian officials are
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for war against Pakistan, or in some cases, the
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, which could only be achieved militarily:


Yet you suggest "nothing will happen."

How are you so optimistic, comrade?

What do you see that the rest of us are missing?

In all fairness, you can't disconnect internal politics from the Indo-Pakistani conflict unless you want to avoid the entire topic altogether.

Case in point: zero hard evidence has emerged thus far that proves that Pakistan, as a state, was responsible for the recent attack in Pahalgam. However, internal politics are driving a many Indians to scream for blood, and why a skirmish, if not war is practically inevitable at this point.

Almost reminds you of US internal politics following 9/11 when American Neocons insisted on an invasion of Iraq. We all know how that panned out, but such is the power and relevance of internal politics!



No one wants to put up with endless Jai Hind v. Pakistan Zindabad flames wars, but unless the entire topic is to be avoided, the best you can really do is insist that discussions occur on a positive basis (i.e. "X happened, Y occurred") rather than a normative basis (i.e. "country A should do X cause it's the 'moral' or 'right' thing to do").

Beyond that, not sure if there's really much we can ask of the mods. Ultimately, it's their call however they wish to proceed.
Even this time, they would still do the lip service and let the aggressive regional power become even more powerful. Now they lost leverage over Kashmir when they could't do anything ove the revocation of aticle 370, but India still has leverage by keeping and facilitating tiebteain government in exile. Keep your ally an essentail miiliary dictatorship, see it crumble over your eyes slowly. And they think India would suddenly become friend if they shut up over Kasmir. I hope China would get a good lession on how it let its potential allies go fragile ultimatel leading to regime change and become ring fenced. Give it few more years, we will have a West-allied Iran, crumbled Russia, massively weak pakistan without Kashmir, Bangladesh returnign to india allied regime. Afterall, has China thought of creating a incentive structure for allies?
The Pakistani Defense Minister is literally saying "it is likely that [indecipherable] India will attempt an incursion of Pakistan and will engage Pakistan militarily."


While senior Indian officials are
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
for war against Pakistan, or in some cases, the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which could only be achieved militarily:


Yet you suggest "nothing will happen."

How are you so optimistic, comrade?

What do you see that the rest of us are missing?
If you chant “ Shared future for mankind” 1000 times, PM Modi and India will finally understand the brilliance idea of common prosperity for Asians and will embrace China. We shall not interfere in the internal affairs of India and we are happy to pick the pieces left of Pakistan after-all we didn’t do anything.
 

AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
Going slightly of topic here but this is why I don't think China has got what it takes to lead the world in a potential post-US era. Can it achieve military and economic superiority? Sure. Can it use them to yield geo-political and cultural power? No.

It can't save its supposedly closest ally from self-destructive behavior while being the largest or 2nd largest economy in the world.

China is capable of intervening in foreign politics, but doesn't want to. That's China's foreign policy.
 

han1289

Junior Member
Registered Member
If PL-15s start downing Indian jets, dramatically changing the perception of China's armaments and making Western powers think twice about their belligerence in East Asia, then China should reward Pakistan.

If Pakistan can only cry wolf and fence sit to extract more benefits, China should just leave things alone.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Art of Doing Nothing......

Friends to all enemy to none, a standard diplomacy followed by a mature and cultured nation even though they themselves had been victim of terrorist attack inside Pakistan. It maybe infuriating for us Chinese chauvinist BUT not interfering is giving respect to Pakistan who is also a victim. Why widen the wound of your friend in times of needs by intervening in their domestic affair? You only encourage more mayhem and uncertainty which is a trap set up by the US, being different is what set us apart from the collective west and is our major Trump Card to show to the global majority that there is an alternative.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now they lost leverage over Kashmir when they could't do anything ove the revocation of aticle 370, but India still has leverage by keeping and facilitating tiebteain government in exile.

What will supporting the "Tibetan government in exile" do for India?

Has supporting Tibetan separatists achieved anything tangible for India in the past?!

Happy to talk about actionable cards in India's hands, but let's please skip the theoretical exercises in futility.

Keep your ally an essentail miiliary dictatorship

What's wrong with that?! :cool:

Afterall, has China thought of creating a incentive structure for allies?

Absolutely, and one of those incentives is a commitment to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, especially friends and allies.

This is in fact a
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of Chinese foreign policy!

We shall not interfere in the internal affairs of India and we are happy to pick the pieces left of Pakistan after-all we didn’t do anything.

Pakistan will do just fine.

If "shit hits the fan," the choice Pakistani authorities will make between regime change and "first use" of nuclear weapons will be obvious, if not easy.
 

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Don't know how true this is, but if it is PL-15 could have it's first real combat use. I personally don't expect it to go well for the Indians as if it's made to combat the Americans, it's going to be way overqualified for Indian jets.
If PL-15s start downing Indian jets, dramatically changing the perception of China's armaments and making Western powers think twice about their belligerence in East Asia, then China should reward Pakistan.

If Pakistan can only cry wolf and fence sit to extract more benefits, China should just leave things alone.
Rafale/Meteor will give J10CE and JF17C with PL15 a run for their money. But the rest of IAF is pretty much toast against them I would think.
The PL-15s that were sold to Pakistan are of the "E" variant, i.e. with 145 km instead of 200-300 km range. Assuming that IAF operates the unfettered variant of the Meteor, the PAF J-10CEs and JF-17s would be outranged by the IAF Rafales. Of course, EW/ECM assets like the ZDK03 or Saab 2000 might close the gap in the PAF's favor to some extent.

As for the rumors that the PAF was given PL-15s from the PLAAF's own stock, keep in mind that losing a PL-15 to enemy capture or even exposing the unrestricted performance of the missile to enemy sensors would be a major OPSEC breach that could very well bite the PLAAF in its own behind in a HIC. Hence I doubt that the PLAAF would be okay with selling domestic PL-15 stocks to Pakistan or - if such a sale did take place - allow the PAF to use them in this conflict.
 

Rafi

Junior Member
Registered Member
The PL-15s that were sold to Pakistan are of the "E" variant, i.e. with 145 km instead of 200-300 km range. Assuming that IAF operates the unfettered variant of the Meteor, the PAF J-10CEs and JF-17s would be outranged by the IAF Rafales. Of course, EW/ECM assets like the ZDK03 or Saab 2000 might close the gap in the PAF's favor to some extent.

As for the rumors that the PAF was given PL-15s from the PLAAF's own stock, keep in mind that losing a PL-15 to enemy capture or even exposing the unrestricted performance of the missile to enemy sensors would be a major OPSEC breach that could very well bite the PLAAF in its own behind in a HIC. Hence I doubt that the PLAAF would be okay with selling domestic PL-15 stocks to Pakistan or - if such a sale did take place - allow the PAF to use them in this conflict.

I have heard from PAF sources that PL-15 was given because China has already got something better coming ‘on line’ take that for whatever you want.
 

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have heard from PAF sources that PL-15 was given because China has already got something better coming ‘on line’ take that for whatever you want.
Even if the PLAAF did have something new in the pipeline, the PL-15 will continue to be the mainstay PLAAF BVRAAM for the near foreseeable future; having its peformance leaked to a potential adversary or losing an intact unit to be examined & taken apart would be an unacceptable breach of security.

This is precisely why there is an "export" version of the PL-15 even though the range of the original variant falls under MTCR limits.
 

ohan_qwe

Junior Member
Even if the PLAAF did have something new in the pipeline, the PL-15 will continue to be the mainstay PLAAF BVRAAM for the near foreseeable future; having its peformance leaked to a potential adversary or losing an intact unit to be examined & taken apart would be an unacceptable breach of security.

This is precisely why there is an "export" version of the PL-15 even though the range of the original variant falls under MTCR limits.
MTCR don't apply to AAM unless you have 500kg warhead.
"systems which can carry a payload of 500 kilograms for 300 kilometres"
 
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