I have a feeling Zhao Dashuai is right, India will purchase the Su-57. You can't only love arms race when you're winning. Dropping the six gen fighters last Dec was a brilliant strategic move.
Indian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter bd popeye
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I have a feeling Zhao Dashuai is right, India will purchase the Su-57. You can't only love arms race when you're winning. Dropping the six gen fighters last Dec was a brilliant strategic move.
Since PAF is allegedly receiving J-35 ground based fighters in coming years, IAF will feel obliged to purchase stop gap 5th gen fighters until their AMCA reaches IAF service. AMCA looks like it's over 15 years away from IAF service, by their own admission, around 10 years.
They have not even a single known tech demonstrator (assumption) let alone a static test prototype, let alone a flying prototype. Their journalists seem to have confused a plastic + fibreglass + wood mockup with a prototype. What they've displayed is NOT a test product of any sort.
This means they will likely purchase either the Su-57 or F-35 as the only commercially available fighters outside of the J-35 which they can't and won't buy for obvious reasons. F-35 can be sold to India. Certainly more so with Trump and Musk in power. F-35 would be the better choice to purchase even though the strings attached are more substantial than Su-57. IAF F-35s are guaranteed to be permitted to work against China. So for IAF, why not go for the superior combat platform? Even without the networking strengths of F-35, it is still a better BVR fighter than Su-57. Plus if IAF purchases Su-57, China can just buy a minimum order down the line and test and train against it to develop the best tactics to counter it a la UK with France during Falklands wrt Argentine Exocet missiles and Mirages. In that example the UK didn't even have any examples to train against, just the specs.
Considering Su-57 would be totally stupid of India. There's nothing stopping China to buy 24 or maybe even fewer as a modern Su-35. It could even serve the same role Su-35 has served and is serving in PLAAF - opfor training, study, and forward deployed during peacetime to hide mainstay fighter digital signatures.
Oh and the Su-75 is not that much closer to actual service than Indian AMCA is. So... yeah that's not really an option either. KF-21 you may as well buy F-35, similar strings and with F-35, it's much more capable. KAAN is about as an option to India as J-35 is.
They have not even a single known tech demonstrator (assumption) let alone a static test prototype, let alone a flying prototype. Their journalists seem to have confused a plastic + fibreglass + wood mockup with a prototype. What they've displayed is NOT a test product of any sort.
This means they will likely purchase either the Su-57 or F-35 as the only commercially available fighters outside of the J-35 which they can't and won't buy for obvious reasons. F-35 can be sold to India. Certainly more so with Trump and Musk in power. F-35 would be the better choice to purchase even though the strings attached are more substantial than Su-57. IAF F-35s are guaranteed to be permitted to work against China. So for IAF, why not go for the superior combat platform? Even without the networking strengths of F-35, it is still a better BVR fighter than Su-57. Plus if IAF purchases Su-57, China can just buy a minimum order down the line and test and train against it to develop the best tactics to counter it a la UK with France during Falklands wrt Argentine Exocet missiles and Mirages. In that example the UK didn't even have any examples to train against, just the specs.
Considering Su-57 would be totally stupid of India. There's nothing stopping China to buy 24 or maybe even fewer as a modern Su-35. It could even serve the same role Su-35 has served and is serving in PLAAF - opfor training, study, and forward deployed during peacetime to hide mainstay fighter digital signatures.
Oh and the Su-75 is not that much closer to actual service than Indian AMCA is. So... yeah that's not really an option either. KF-21 you may as well buy F-35, similar strings and with F-35, it's much more capable. KAAN is about as an option to India as J-35 is.
Being the hater that he is I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk off loads a bunch of F-35s to India and produces drones exclusively.
Lethe
Captain
I don't think so. Arguably it would be a good idea for India to join FCAS as it would allow India to field technologically competitive aircraft while benefitting from ToT arrangements, while for France it would solve the problems of funding and economies of scale. But the devil is in the details. France would not want its own development roadmap or fielded capabilities to be held hostage to the vagaries of India's notoriously sclerotic defence industrial apparatus, while India would reasonably seek broad spectrum domestic industry involvement in both development and manufacturing: they certainly would not wish to go backwards from what has been achieved with LCA. I think the basic structure of any such program would end up similar to what was contemplated for FGFA, i.e. parallel production with India taking what it needs and modifying what it likes. But would India be prepared to pay the vast sums of money required to make that structure work for France? They weren't willing to do so for MMRCA, FGFA, or even MTA.
I would clarify that France has not been a consistent partner in the LCA project, rather there have been various rounds of foreign consultancy, beginning with Dassault in the 1980s regarding the basic aerodynamic configuration of the aircraft, to testing at ONERA last year regarding the canard configuration of LCA Mk. II. External assistance has been sought from other nations also, most infamously Lockheed Martin in relation to the flight control software in the late 1990s, a process that was rudely interrupted by the Pokhran II nuclear tests and subsequent US sanctions.
LCA Mk. II, AMCA and TEDBF are all intended to use General Electric F414 as an interim engine, to be succeeded eventually by a new indigenous turbofan developed in concert with Safran. The latter is still entirely notional so far as I am aware: lots of talk, no contracts. I haven't read anything about French involvement in AMCA outside of that notional future engine program.
For Indian Navy, the fallback position if TEDBF does not progress is undoubtedly "more Rafale", but I doubt that there is any intent on the ADA side of things for TEDBF to simply become Rafale-by-another-name, though the model displayed at Aero India just now resembles Rafale closely enough that the question is worth asking. Reportedly one issue with LCA-N was that the approach speed was too high despite the LEVCON and other aerodynamic changes for that variant. As such it is very conceivable that, in further refining the aerodynamic configuration for TEDBF, ADA might seek input from Dassault (or Sukhoi) in relation to the canard design, inlet-canard-wing interface, control laws, etc.
I don't think that France is "milking" India. France is certainly happy to provide lucrative solutions to these requirement crunches that emerge from India with some consistency, and has cultivated a relationship as a reliable technology partner. But for France it would've been much better to get India's signature on the dotted line for a Su-30MKI-sized contract with guaranteed benefits accruing over decades than to engage in this piecemeal business of three dozen Rafales here, two dozen there, multiple rounds of dancing around A330 MRTT, etc. If India had signed that contract for 126 MMRCA a decade ago, by now the extension clause for a further 63 aircraft would probably have been executed (in light of timelines for LCA and AMCA being pushed back considerably from what was envisaged 10-15 years ago), and having that domestic production line would've made the choice for Indian Navy a simple one too. The total order could've reached 250 aircraft, which would've been transformational for Dassault's rather artisanal production base. One can debate which matrix of acquisition paths would've best served India's interests but for France there is no doubt that the big fish got away.
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The downside (from India's perspective) with buying the F-35 is that China has some "experience" with it. F-35 presents as the greatest airborne threat for China. It has had close to two decades of intel gathering on the F-35's strengths and weaknesses. China has exploited every avenue available and I can only assume has collected a decent amount of detail. It is also exactly what PLAAF and PLAN has been gearing against in the air combat domain. Not Su-57.
So a double edged sword.
I'm kinda hoping India goes for F-35 and gets to buy them. From Japan to India, the main fighter to counter is the F-35. Simplifies the problem. I mean it's been the same problem for the last 15 years and can only assume not only addressed but currently addressing any and all future problems. I mean advancing the symmetrical side has been happening - J-10 to J-36 and J-50. The assymmetric stuff has yielded fruits like DF-27 and who knows what else. With the leaping into 6th gen, we have gone from developing strategies and tactics to counter F-22 and F-35 with 4th gens like j-11A and B to countering those with J-20 and J-16 to lets set the pace and anticipate the future of air warfare... what would you like us to produce for you to dominate the skies PLAAF?
Doubters are a dime a hundred, we know how and what they think. The truth is, if PLAAF hasn't met up to the F-35 challenge yet with what PLAN and PLAAF have since 2020, it isn't going to be pouring money into these platforms. The only uncertainties are those unknown unknowns so nothings to say.
India equipping F-35 would be the best thing for PLAAF. It would allow them to work to PAF to glean more intel on the F-35. Don't think the Indians will operate the F-35s as professionally as the Japanese or Americans.
Seriously it's even more dumb for the person who asked that question. How can you compare a genuine proven operational 5th generation fighter like the F-35 who has over 1500 operational fighters and is used constantly by over a dozen countries around the world (and even more willing to acquire it if not for the US refusing and unwilling to sell to many others) and you are using a so called 5th generation fighter like SU-57 who is still struggling to get into full scale production for a while now(we don't even know when they will sort it out and put it in mass production) while struggling for years now to get firm export orders. The 2 are not comparable to be honest.Comment section are so intense.
Only the J20 can still be comparable to the F35 since they are both in mass production and being modified/updated with new variants/tech/softwares etc.
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Yeah... but she's pretty. lol.
Okay seriously though the Su-57 production woes are more a reflection of conditions and circumstances outside of the Su-57. The fighter aircraft itself is as far as the public can know, a decent performer. It features stealth shaping, it applies the very best avionics and sensors Russia can produce and that is at the very least, decent. Whether it's effective enough against western and Chinese counters is unknown. The state of Russian electronics, communications and sensors technology is overall probably accurately judged as being lagging behind the US and China. I mean I can justify this position with loooooong lists of examples etc and economic conditions and so on but I think most readers understand this well enough.
The question is whether or not Sukhoi has an effective engine masker. The fans are only partially visible from some specific angles. But this is a thing to address regardless of how minute. Have they managed to? Let's just assume they have for sake of argument. After all, every serious customer and decision maker worth their position will get down to the figuring this out for certain. So it's stealthy. The materials and worksmanship on the actual production fighters are indeed miles better than the prototypes.
Maybe Russia doesn't have the latest metamaterials available. By UAC's own "brochure specs" they've put the Su-57 as having a frontal RCS quite a bit higher than its "peers". Forget the exact figures but recall NAFO guys mocking it since it was basically a clean superhornet level or clean Rafale level.
Overall, the Su-57 is likely to be somewhere between Rafale and F-22/J-20/F-35/J-35 in terms of overall stealth and technology levels (sensors, software, ECM and so on). Exactly where it is is for India to figure out (based on assumptions on where the F-22 -> J35s are).
Indians probably will just buy off the shelf if they do make a move on Su-57. Optics will be too difficult to manage if they resurrect the FGFA program for a two seater Su-57 when they don't have CCA to network with it. Networking a hypothetical tandem seat FGFA with future Indian CCA ecosystem is about half a decade work in itself. Tandem seater FGFA development would be at least another half decade. None of these will be likely to be pursued for a stop gap. In all honesty, does HAL and IAF have 100% confidence in AMCA delivering within 15 years a capable enough product to match existing 5th gen levels of performance? Without a domestic super heavy turbofan program even running let alone with working cores and the backend industries to support?
At this moment, not only do they need to carefully evaluate the geopol context and where they want to be standing and balancing the conditions of those exchanges but also go further into understanding exactly what they can get in the different timeframes. Have no delusions about capabilities like they do typically where everything they bring is automatically amazing and world leading to say nothing of performing exactly like they desire. I do not believe Indian leadership is capable of this even if a small minority of Indian people actually are. It is just not the way the culture is set up. This may change with new generations getting into positions of influence.
Will they commit to the thinking that buying Su-57 is sinking money since its effectiveness against China and by some marginal extension, Pakistan, is limited because of the closeness of Russia and China or commit to Rafale + future AMCA? If I were in their position it would be more money on AMCA and Rafale (problem is they actually don't have the industrial ability to bring about a decent AMCA until well into next decade by then the SOTA has shifted much much further). Diplomacy secures issues with Pakistan. China has really no intention of invading India but every intention to settle the disputed lands. India does not wish to relinquish Aksai Chin which is why they refuse to cooperate with China. Not only this, they do not wish to relinquish ambitions on most of Tibet. They know deep down that China is not a threat to India as long as border disputes become settled. Stumbling block is their ambition on Tibet and at the very least, the desire to take over Aksai Chin. Can't fault them on that point because China is equally adamant on land it considers to be part of its nation.
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For every time line Indian aerospace organisation like HAL, ADA etc gives you should add 5 years or more years to that. That is time tested and proven. This wouldn't be any different if anything it might be even more so, given the complexity of this program and India having little experience building and operating a reliable /viable successful fighter jet. So this will take even more time than a normal Indian military delayed project
Imagine if India proceeds to purchase Su-57s from Russia in order to "counter Chinese aggression" - Just for China to buy 24x Su-57s while using the "we want to replace our 24x Su-35s" excuse.
That'd be the best execution of "The Art of Spiting Your Enemy" lmfao.
(Yes I know there is zero need for China to buy any Su-57 from Russia at this point, but I'm just laughing with that thought lol)
That is actually a painted Prototype of the CATS warrior loyal wingman not just a mockup btw