Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Su-57 will probably be the closest facsimile to the F-22 for training the Chinese will be able to get once the Izdeliye 30 engines become available.
I think that in itself has some value. Then there is access not only to the engines but also to the airframe. Which is more advanced than the J-20's.
I think arguably the Su-57 has the most advanced airframe in any production fighter today. Then there is access to the weapons available for the Su-57 which will be quite extensive. At least once those are developed. The list is quite impressive. Assuming the Russians do all of them. Which I would not be surprised.

No it is not as simple as copying the look of the airframe. There is also the software to control all those movable surfaces. If it was just the overall shape the Russians themselves would have started production of the Su-57 years ago. Also, the Russians will export the Su-57. If you look at the customers for the Su-30 and extrapolate that as a possible list of Su-57 buyers a lot of them will be stationed on China's borders. Just like the F-35. You can bet that whoever does not get the F-35 will get the Su-57.

Vietnam, for example, is quite likely to be one of the purchasers. As a Russian weapons client for decades.

In fact I would not be surprised if even traditional US weapons clients might go Russian because the US has no twin engine stealth fighter available for sale. Heck, I would not be surprised to see South Korea buy it.

You have to think about it this way. China exports a lot of things to Russia. While right now Russia has only limited exports to China, mostly energy, so what will they purchase to have a trade balance? Food? There are other alternatives for that and food is relatively cheap. So purchasing aircraft makes sense. Any aircraft which they purchase from Russia is one less aircraft they have to manufacture in China at a time their stealth aircraft production will still be ramping up. It is not in China's interests to have the Russians keep a running tab on them and as time passes the US keeps piling on more sanctions on Russia so they will buy more and more from China. Just recently the main Russian banks connected themselves to the Chinese electronic bank transfers system and the Russians have started to keep Yuan as a reserve currency. This means their economies will become more interlinked.

Already the Russian naval sector is looking at Chinese engines. Which is something you wouldn't dream of even a decade ago.
 
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D

Deleted member 13312

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That's because Shenyang is using private funding on this, it doesn't have State funding like J-20's $4.4 billion R&D budget.

Shenyang probably spent like <$500 million max on the J-31 R&D, a fraction of the amount spend on J-20.
And they got a result that is commensurate to their investments, which shows in the current J-31. You cannot honestly say that a fully fledged J-31 will cost significantly less than the J-20's research.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Engine development alone typically costs as much as developing the rest of the aircraft.
This will likely also be the case for the WS-15. Or the FC-31 engine in case it gets produced.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Now we have an official proposal posted by Gloire-bb today on the Chinese Purchase of the Su-35 thread. This would be a mutually beneficial arrangement, and similar to the long awaited purchase of the Su-35 by the PLAAF?

hopefully he will share that link here shortly?


Pardon to say so, but NO we don't have.

we have a lot of desperate PR-stuff coming from Russia in their attempts to promote that bird to Turkey, the ME and now all over the world including China, but none of the sources is reliable or has any credibility in Chinese military aviation matters and all following reports are pure sensational reposts spiced up by even more unrealistic assumptions, including now " a deal to China"!

Come on .... this is at best the lowest KeyForum level! :mad:
Discussion stupid reports from unreliable sources ad nauseum ...

IMO this is a fun-thread at best or some sort of what if, but I find it annoying that some seem to take these reports for granted.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
$100-120 million per unit of J-20 is the LRIP estimate from 2011 (ancient) [1] [2]

The fly-away cost estimate of J-20 is $30-50 million estimated in 2016 (more recent numbers) [2] [3]

I anticipate China pump J-20's out like sausages, so variable per unit costs will drop as serial production ramps up.

Source:
[1]
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(PDF). China SignPost™ (洞察中国). 2011-01-17. Archived from
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(PDF) on 2017-09-11. Retrieved 2018-07-11.
[2]
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. CHINA POWER PROJECT by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 2017-02-15. Archived from
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on 2018-02-23. Retrieved 2018-07-11.
[3]
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. South China Morning Post (SCMP). 2016-12-14. Archived from
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on 2018-04-26. Retrieved 2018-07-11.

And if any says I copied from J-20 Wikipedia, I was the original person who wrote it on Wiki.

No, that estimate is complete bull. It's from a SCMP article that concludes it's cost based on some nobody's speculation that "Chinese platforms are 3 to 5 times cheaper than equivalent American ones". Yes, seriously, not joking.

Given that JF-17 costs 28 million $ and an older F-16 costs ~20 million $, whatever those speculations are made on are completely baseless.

It makes no sense that the prototype would be 4x as expensive as the production craft either. People are claiming the Su-57 won't be cheap because 50 million is only for the LRIP, yet according to this illogical estimate, it should cost 15 million in service??

And we are looking at another significant cost addon for the J-20 once the more expensive thrust vectoring engines come into service. China has a strong economy, but it would be exaggarating to think they can make a shit ton of J-20, at least on the current budget. If they reach F-22 numbers in the short term, that is already a very large production given the costs.
 

Dfangsaur

Junior Member
Registered Member
:rolleyes:

That’s installment payments right? Otherwise there is a bridge in Moscow I can sell you.

The Price point you are listing is what the Russians HOPE to sell it for... or Rather hope to buy it for themselves. It’s their objective price. However as with the rest of the SU57 program It’s no where near that yet.
To Think that they could sell it to China for that low at this point in time would mean the Russians short changing themselves so bad they might as well give it to them as gifts. That price point is not a “serious” any thing.
The Russians haven’t been able to bank roll it themselves How the hell will it proliferate?

They tried to use India to finance the R&D on this just as they used them to bank roll the Mig29K and SU30. If the Chinese buy Su57 they will be the new Sucker who pays for the Russian lollipops.

J31 may have smaller engines but it’s not in production it’s in a R&D cycle at this point and subject to change.
I think you have the Engines reversed here J20 could benefit from Su57 engines the new one the Russians have been trying to develop.
I'd probably cost almost that much just for the two engines tbh.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Pardon to say so, but NO we don't have.

we have a lot of desperate PR-stuff coming from Russia
+
And it isn't even coming from Russia at this point.

Though, to be honest, i won't be terribly suprised when the proposal will happen, nor if it will actually go through, even with J-20 being around.

I have to agree with the argument that the Su-57 offers nothing, with the possible exception of the Izdeliye 30 engine.
Here i have to disagree.
Su-57 is a very different platform, when compared to other 5th gens(they are all quite different, with only j-31 in its current form being ... boring).
And, if the proposal is going to actually happen - it is already going to be a signal, what at least Sukhoi itself feels the aircraft to be different enough to try.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
The Su-57 will probably be the closest facsimile to the F-22 for training the Chinese will be able to get once the Izdeliye 30 engines become available.
I think that in itself has some value. Then there is access not only to the engines but also to the airframe. Which is more advanced than the J-20's.
I think arguably the Su-57 has the most advanced airframe in any production fighter today. Then there is access to the weapons available for the Su-57 which will be quite extensive. At least once those are developed. The list is quite impressive. Assuming the Russians do all of them. Which I would not be surprised.

No it is not as simple as copying the look of the airframe. There is also the software to control all those movable surfaces. If it was just the overall shape the Russians themselves would have started production of the Su-57 years ago. Also, the Russians will export the Su-57. If you look at the customers for the Su-30 and extrapolate that as a possible list of Su-57 buyers a lot of them will be stationed on China's borders. Just like the F-35. You can bet that whoever does not get the F-35 will get the Su-57.

Vietnam, for example, is quite likely to be one of the purchasers. As a Russian weapons client for decades.

In fact I would not be surprised if even traditional US weapons clients might go Russian because the US has no twin engine stealth fighter available for sale. Heck, I would not be surprised to see South Korea buy it.

You have to think about it this way. China exports a lot of things to Russia. While right now Russia has only limited exports to China, mostly energy, so what will they purchase to have a trade balance? Food? There are other alternatives for that and food is relatively cheap. So purchasing aircraft makes sense. Any aircraft which they purchase from Russia is one less aircraft they have to manufacture in China at a time their stealth aircraft production will still be ramping up. It is not in China's interests to have the Russians keep a running tab on them and as time passes the US keeps piling on more sanctions on Russia so they will buy more and more from China. Just recently the main Russian banks connected themselves to the Chinese electronic bank transfers system and the Russians have started to keep Yuan as a reserve currency. This means their economies will become more interlinked.

Already the Russian naval sector is looking at Chinese engines. Which is something you wouldn't dream of even a decade ago.

WS-15 would still be preferable, not sure izd 30 has 3D TVC or the insane 10.8+ thrust to weight ratio that's is the project target.

In terms of stealth design, the Su-57 has not impressed most commentators. Whether it's kinematic performance can match the J-20 remains to be seen. Pilot interviews have revealed that J-20 outclasses PLAAF 4.5th gen aircraft in manueverability, which include J-10C, J-16 and Su-35. Despite that, it's obviously a competent airframe with high upgrade potential.

Compared to the J-20, it has done better at reducing cost, which is important for use as an air superiority fighter.

However, I agree that purchases should be sought after to support Russia and prepare the air force for eventual export model proliferation, even if the design is not sought after by PLAAF.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
You have to think about it this way. China exports a lot of things to Russia. While right now Russia has only limited exports to China, mostly energy, so what will they purchase to have a trade balance? Food? There are other alternatives for that and food is relatively cheap. So purchasing aircraft makes sense. Any aircraft which they purchase from Russia is one less aircraft they have to manufacture in China at a time their stealth aircraft production will still be ramping up. It is not in China's interests to have the Russians keep a running tab on them and as time passes the US keeps piling on more sanctions on Russia so they will buy more and more from China. Just recently the main Russian banks connected themselves to the Chinese electronic bank transfers system and the Russians have started to keep Yuan as a reserve currency. This means their economies will become more interlinked.

Already the Russian naval sector is looking at Chinese engines. Which is something you wouldn't dream of even a decade ago.

That is really not how trade works, just because Russia and China has a trade imbalance means that China must purchase additional stuff from Russia to make up for it. China already has much of what Russia could offer and food security is quite valuable for China. Purchasing different fighters from Russia will put additional strain on China's logistics and maintenance department so any advantage the Su-57 can offer would be negated.
 
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