Z-20 (all variants) thread

[Blitzo]

@taxiya- a poster (Franklin) said he thought the Z-20 team didn't post pictures because its members might be too embarrassed about copying the Blackhawk, and I offered an alternative explanation. At no point did I claim it was the correct or the only alternative, and others have opined with additional reasons.

When it's all said and done, SDF is a discussion forum where different, and hopefully reasonable, views compete in the free market of ideas, and the good ones move on to the next rounds, while the bad ones don't. Yes, I'm just as guilty as some others here on occasionally taking things too seriously, but like Sigmund Freud said: "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

It depends on how certain ideas are phrased, what kind of logic and premises they rest on, and using critical thinking to interrogate it all.

Based on the information we have at present, and what we know about past and present PLA practices regarding opsec, the explanation suggested by Taxiya seems the most likely... or at the very least, we do not have enough information to know what stage or how successful the development of Z-20 is going for us to explain its absence of photos as being due to slow development.

By the way, I also like how you're using the name "copyhawk" in such a casual way. Now, I myself am not bothered by it, but others in future might be, given sensitivity surrounding stereotypes of China copying etc, and they might criticize you for it. Continue using the name by all means, but just appreciate that some people might not receive it very well and will have the right to interpret it as mildly inflammatory.

 

[vesicles]

For members here who think about secrecy or showing/not showing, I must remind you one thing.
Do you think the abundant J-20 photos are due to "showing", the relative lack of photos of J-31, Y-20 and Z-20 are due to "hiding"?
CAC airport is surrounded by tall civilian apartment buildings just few hundred meters outside of the airfield. CAC can not easily hide J-20 even they wanted to. Remember all photos of J-20 that we have seen are taken at takeoff and landing.
XAC and SAC are relatively far away from civilian areas. The buildings near the airfields are mostly houses for their employees and families. These people are managed as military personals, even the non-employee family members. They won't leak any photos even they can take them, even that is not likely as taking unauthorized photos can send one to prison. Remember a CAC guy was jailed last year? BTW, Yanliang (XAC) is basically city of XAC, not so sure about the location of SAC though, but you get the idea.
So why is it so difficult for someone to accept that the most likely reason of lack of photo of Z-20 is just because there is not many outsiders who have a chance to take photos?

People believe what they want to believe, perhaps.

Well, about that. If the PLA does not want people to see what is happening inside of CAC, they would have chosen a site more remote. China has plenty places so remote that you won't see a human being within hundreds of miles. In fact, China has many of military facilities built in these remote places. Yanliang would be a good example. It would've been so easy for them to move CAC to another locale if they feel like it.

So the fact that CAC is where it is now means only one thing: China and the PLA do not care if you see anything there. If you note, each and every J-20 prototype spends some jolly time at CAC and then disappears... We all know that they move the plane to Yanliang for more sensitive testings. So it is obvious that they could conduct ALL their testing at Yanliang, where no one will be able to see anything IF they want to. They chosen to parade the J-20 prototypes at CAC and above the sky of Chengdu on purpose.

 

[broadsword]

[QUOTE="Blackstone, post: 368094, member: 8516" (8,516 in = 216 m) (8,516 in (8,516 in = 216 m) = 216 m)]A simpler possibility is they're failing at Copyhawk, so there are no good photos to show.[/QUOTE]

I don't want to rule that out either. A helicopter has so many mechanical parts and copying them is not just using CAD or PS.

 

[taxiya]

@taxiya- a poster (Franklin) said he thought the Z-20 team didn't post pictures because its members might be too embarrassed about copying the Blackhawk, and I offered an alternative explanation. At no point did I claim it was the correct or the only alternative, and others have opined with additional reasons.

Hi, Blackstone. Please don't take my last post as particularly aiming at you, not at all, it was referring to many who have that tendancy.
Regarding all photos of Z-20 leaked so far, I don't believe they are taken by Z-20 teams and leaked on purpose considering the quality (smartphone camera from a distance) and the security rules in the quasi-malitary nature of all Chinese aircraft industry (in my prvious post). Another evidence is that we haven's seen any photos of J-20 in Yanliang even we have tons of it in CAC.

When it's all said and done, SDF is a discussion forum where different, and hopefully reasonable, views compete in the free market of ideas, and the good ones move on to the next rounds, while the bad ones don't. Yes, I'm just as guilty as some others here on occasionally taking things too seriously, but like Sigmund Freud said: "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

Agreed. I will take your advice to be more patient.

 

[taxiya]

Well, about that. If the PLA does not want people to see what is happening inside of CAC, they would have chosen a site more remote. China has plenty places so remote that you won't see a human being within hundreds of miles. In fact, China has many of military facilities built in these remote places. Yanliang would be a good example. It would've been so easy for them to move CAC to another locale if they feel like it.

So the fact that CAC is where it is now means only one thing: China and the PLA do not care if you see anything there. If you note, each and every J-20 prototype spends some jolly time at CAC and then disappears... We all know that they move the plane to Yanliang for more sensitive testings. So it is obvious that they could conduct ALL their testing at Yanliang, where no one will be able to see anything IF they want to. They chosen to parade the J-20 prototypes at CAC and above the sky of Chengdu on purpose.

When CAC was established at its present location (60s 70s), it was isolated enough. It is the fast urbanization after 1980s that made it too close to civilian area, or quite contrary, the civilian area expanded too close to CAC. Moving CAC to somewhere else is not easy if it is not impossible considering all its employees and families and social services (hospital, school etc). And today's Chinese government is very different from 60s when she enjoyed absolute authority then, she cann't just grab a piece of land from some remote locals and uproot the employees and their relatives who have lived in a place for generations. BTW, new recruits prefer to be close to big citys as well, nobody is willing to work in the middle of nowhere.
So I believe my view still stand.

 

[Franklin]

Guys, my saying that the Chinese government is embarrassed about the similarities between the Z-20 and the UH-60 Black Hawk was nothing more than a joke. I can't believe that that comment has spawn an entire discussion here.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

When CAC was established at its present location (60s 70s), it was isolated enough. It is the fast urbanization after 1980s that made it too close to civilian area, or quite contrary, the civilian area expanded too close to CAC. Moving CAC to somewhere else is not easy if it is not impossible considering all its employees and families and social services (hospital, school etc). And today's Chinese government is very different from 60s when she enjoyed absolute authority then, she cann't just grab a piece of land from some remote locals and uproot the employees and their relatives who have lived in a place for generations. BTW, new recruits prefer to be close to big citys as well, nobody is willing to work in the middle of nowhere.
So I believe my view still stand.

Umm there are work around for that Tax look at the US Area 51 and Area 52. Both are deep in the Navada Desert and in locations no one would really want to live in complete with Radioactive wastelands from nuclear weapons testing.
So how do people work there? The Employees live in Las Vegas a major city, on Monday morning they go to Las Vegas international catch a contractor flight that lands at Area 51. And set to work. Some stay the work week others catch the return flight at the end of the day.
If the PLA wanted there is no reason why they couldn't do the same. Don't even need a Airliner. In Russia under the main civilian metro in Moscow is a second military train service that likely does something similar for the Russian government.

 

[taxiya]

Umm there are work around for that Tax look at the US Area 51 and Area 52. Both are deep in the Navada Desert and in locations no one would really want to live in complete with Radioactive wastelands from nuclear weapons testing.
So how do people work there? The Employees live in Las Vegas a major city, on Monday morning they go to Las Vegas international catch a contractor flight that lands at Area 51. And set to work. Some stay the work week others catch the return flight at the end of the day.
If the PLA wanted there is no reason why they couldn't do the same. Don't even need a Airliner. In Russia under the main civilian metro in Moscow is a second military train service that likely does something similar for the Russian government.

Or the Chinese central government should have stopped the local government to extend their civilian residential area close to CAC, but unfortunately, they didn't during the time of economy reform as they are all focused to money making.
Regarding the moving, I heard SAC is planning to do it by acquiring new land few months ago. However it is more difficult for CAC to do the same as it sits in mountainous province. Anyways, the cost would be high and there is a need of good connection to nearby cities, in Chinese case, bullet train.
So I agree with you about area 51/Las Vegas. There is a difference though, American made this arrangement from the beginning, she was rich to do so. China has to do it only now and she don't have the infrastructure (bullet train) yet. That's why the civilian leak.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

My point was that if the PRC wanted to they could easily establish a off site testing and development center and have a large cleared work force for said living away from said center.
CAC is more or less the assembly plant. Like the Palmdale CA Plants of American builders. An aircraft can be built there and then sent away for testing at a more secure facility away from prying eyes.
Such a facility could be accessed by any number of means. High speed rail though seem a more troublesome means though as it would kinda be a giant arrow pointing to your secret base. The PRC does however have a extensive regional Air line network and nationalized carriers. Allocation of a few Airbus or Boeing or eventually Comac regionals would be easy.

 

[Deino]

Finally a new image ...