Z-20 (all variants) thread

[Franklin]

I don't see any reasons why they would censor the Z-20 unless they are embarrassed by its resemblance to the UH-60 Black Hawk. I think the reasons mentioned by Blitzo are more reasonable. As for the budgetary issue's. There are a dizzying numbers of military projects active in China these days. But China also has large gaps in its defense equipment not to mention training, doctrine and tactics. But they do have to prioritize what they will procure. The Z-20 utility helicopter may well be low on the priority list as other equipment needs are much greater. Like the Y-20 strategic airlift. As for utility helicopters China has the Mi-17, the Z-18 family and the Z-9 family but its strategic airlift fleet consist entirely out of old and second hand Russian planes.

 

[Deino]

anyway .... I want images !!!!!

 

[Blackstone]

I don't see any reasons why they would censor the Z-20 unless they are embarrassed by its resemblance to the UH-60 Black Hawk. I think the reasons mentioned by Blitzo are more reasonable. As for the budgetary issue's. There are a dizzying numbers of military projects active in China these days. But China also has large gaps in its defense equipment not to mention training, doctrine and tactics. But they do have to prioritize what they will procure. The Z-20 utility helicopter may well be low on the priority list as other equipment needs are much greater. Like the Y-20 strategic airlift. As for utility helicopters China has the Mi-17, the Z-18 family and the Z-9 family but its strategic airlift fleet consist entirely out of old and second hand Russian planes.

A simpler possibility is they're failing at Copyhawk, so there are no good photos to show.

 

[vesicles]

I don't see any reasons why they would censor the Z-20 unless they are embarrassed by its resemblance to the UH-60 Black Hawk. I

Shouldn't they already know its resemblance to the UH-60 Black Hawk when they designed the Z-20? If they were embarrassed, they would have canceled it long ago and would not allow the program to proceed, let alone leaking the photos to the public. Why would they need the public to tell them that after they leaked the photos?

I tend to agree that the priority issue is the key. The Z-20 program simply doesn't have the funding and manpower that other programs do. Hence the slow pace...

A simpler possibility is they're failing at Copyhawk, so there are no good photos to show.

I honestly don't think that would be a "simpler possibility". Such possibility would actually be a very complicated one... Why would they leak the photos of the Z-20 if they "failed the design"? Why would they allow the assembly of the chopper if they "fail the design"? Such possibility would bring up so many questions based on improbable assumptions inconsistent with how the PLA does things...

 

[Blackstone]

I honestly don't think that would be a "simpler possibility". Such possibility would actually be a very complicated one... Why would they leak the photos of the Z-20 if they "failed the design"? Why would they allow the assembly of the chopper if they "fail the design"? Such possibility would bring up so many questions based on improbable assumptions inconsistent with how the PLA does things...

One possible explanation is the Copyhawk team had some early success and mistakenly thought the rest would be just as doable, so they 'leaked' some photos of initial progress for reasons ranging from PR to budget lobbying. Fast forward to now, they can't show images of concrete progress, because they don't have them.

Copyhawk might not be "failure design," since the Z-20 team could still successfully duplicate most of the Blackhawk.

 

[vesicles]

One possible explanation is the Copyhawk team had some early success and mistakenly thought the rest would be just as doable, so they 'leaked' some photos of initial progress for reasons ranging from PR to budget lobbying. Fast forward to now, they can't show images of concrete progress, because they don't have them.

Well, we all should know by now that that is not how the PLA works... We all know that the PLA is very conservative when it comes to showing off their toys. When was the last time they leaked something prematurely?

 

[Blackstone]

Well, we all should know by now that that is not how the PLA works... We all know that the PLA is very conservative when it comes to showing off their toys. When was the last time they leaked something prematurely?

Secretary of Defense Robert Gate's visit in 2011? Agreed on PLA is very conservative and generally don't like showing off toys. But, I think something changed with Xi Jinping's coronation, and PLA is indeed showing off more toys.

 

[taxiya]

For members here who think about secrecy or showing/not showing, I must remind you one thing.
Do you think the abundant J-20 photos are due to "showing", the relative lack of photos of J-31, Y-20 and Z-20 are due to "hiding"?
CAC airport is surrounded by tall civilian apartment buildings just few hundred meters outside of the airfield. CAC can not easily hide J-20 even they wanted to. Remember all photos of J-20 that we have seen are taken at takeoff and landing.
XAC and SAC are relatively far away from civilian areas. The buildings near the airfields are mostly houses for their employees and families. These people are managed as military personals, even the non-employee family members. They won't leak any photos even they can take them, even that is not likely as taking unauthorized photos can send one to prison. Remember a CAC guy was jailed last year? BTW, Yanliang (XAC) is basically city of XAC, not so sure about the location of SAC though, but you get the idea.
So why is it so difficult for someone to accept that the most likely reason of lack of photo of Z-20 is just because there is not many outsiders who have a chance to take photos?

People believe what they want to believe, perhaps.

 

[Blackstone]

@taxiya- a poster (Franklin) said he thought the Z-20 team didn't post pictures because its members might be too embarrassed about copying the Blackhawk, and I offered an alternative explanation. At no point did I claim it was the correct or the only alternative, and others have opined with additional reasons.

When it's all said and done, SDF is a discussion forum where different, and hopefully reasonable, views compete in the free market of ideas, and the good ones move on to the next rounds, while the bad ones don't. Yes, I'm just as guilty as some others here on occasionally taking things too seriously, but like Sigmund Freud said: "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

 

[vesicles]

Secretary of Defense Robert Gate's visit in 2011? Agreed on PLA is very conservative and generally don't like showing off toys. But, I think something changed with Xi Jinping's coronation, and PLA is indeed showing off more toys.

I wouldn't call showing 2001 was premature. Far from it, I think they showed it off because they were very confident about the plane. In fact, just look at how smooth the J-20 program has been. When it comes to "showing off new toys" vs. "avoiding possible humiliation from a potential accident", the PLA most likely put much more emphasis on the latter. So they must have fully evaluated the 2001 and the status of the entire program before deciding to leak the photos and videos. If there is any potential issues, they would cancel the showing without any hesitation.

I believe the underlying philosophy of the PLA is that it is OK not letting people know what you have (in fact, I think this is PLA's default and preferred mode), but definitely not good to make a fool of yourself in front of the whole world if something goes wrong. Better safe than sorry, so to speak... And I tend to agree with this.