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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I think Japan knows it can do nothing. Do not fear the legacy of the Japanese Empire. That's over. Anything Japan does... there will be a counter they don't like. Japan has the US on its side. If they don't feel secure under that shield, they certainly can't do it alone or with anyone else.
 

shen

Senior Member
I think Japan knows it can do nothing. Do not fear the legacy of the Japanese Empire. That's over. Anything Japan does... there will be a counter they don't like. Japan has the US on its side. If they don't feel secure under that shield, they certainly can't do it alone or with anyone else.

To a Japanese nationalist like Abe, been under the US shield may be an intolerable humiliation. For example, Russia signaled willingness to discussion the Kuril issue. But when the Ukrainian crisis started, Japan is forced to toe the American line and damage relationship with Russia.
Abe want Japan to become a "normal" country again, with an independent foreign policy. That can only happen by breaking off the dependent relationship with the US.
 

delft

Brigadier
What's a sign Obama's pivot towards Asia is floundering?

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I noticed in this article and in a similar article on a Dutch website a reference to the seizure of the Mitsui O.S.K. "Baosteel Emotion" 226,434 deadweight-ton ore carrier. Is this just a matter of Mitsui O.S.K. not paying its dues or ( also ) a way to discourage repair of the Japanese finances?
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Personally I think the Asian mentality is comforted by the US at the forefront. Japan has been able to concentrate on its economy while US provided military protection. South Korea is now eclipsing Japan in many areas which probably really irks them. They start acting aggressive, they're going to get wiped out of existence. Japan is frustrated with the US because they want Americans to put China in its place. The whole idea about getting other people to do your dirty work is to avoid all the negatives. If they're successful, you can benefit. But if they fail, the hate is focused on someone else. Japan being independent, they can only be aggressive. Which again I say no one should be alarmed by it. Who would join them except maybe the Philippines and Vietnam. And all they will be are the foot soldiers of Japan's policy not an equal.
 

shen

Senior Member
I noticed in this article and in a similar article on a Dutch website a reference to the seizure of the Mitsui O.S.K. "Baosteel Emotion" 226,434 deadweight-ton ore carrier. Is this just a matter of Mitsui O.S.K. not paying its dues or ( also ) a way to discourage repair of the Japanese finances?

I think the former. This is a private lawsuit, not war reparation which was settled. Mistsui is seeking a settlement. There will be more cases like this, in China and Korea.
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Interest this also come at a time when China has reportedly decrease the frequency of CG patrols around Diaoyu Island. Almost as if Abe want to stoke up tension with China and see what the US would do about it.

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One theory about Abe's strategy is that his ultimate aim is to throw off the American "yoke". By provoking a conflict with China, but when the shooting start and Americans fail to come to Japan's aid. (what happened in Crimea) At that time, Abe would have the domestic and international support to rearm in earnest, possibly including nuclear weapons.

Well I do not know about Japan, but I have had this pegged as a Chinese strategy towards Japan for quite some time. Lets face it, a Pivot without Japan is no pivot at all.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
North Korean Foreign ministry spokesman warns that US President's upcoming tour of region could escalate tensions

North Korea criticises Obama's 'dangerous' Asia tour
Reuters
21 Apr 2014

North Korea warned Monday that an upcoming Asian tour by US President Barack Obama could escalate military tensions, as South Korean media cited intelligence reports of increased activity at the North's main nuclear test site. Obama's April 23-29 tour includes visits to Japan and South Korea, the two main US military allies in Asia and key partners in the effort to curb Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme.

A North Korean foreign ministry spokesman said the "reactionary and dangerous" trip would only serve to "escalate confrontation and bring dark clouds of a nuclear arms race" over the Korean peninsula. In a statement carried by the North's official KCNA news agency, the spokesman said recent Asia visits by the US Secretaries of State and Defence had sought to demonise the North's nuclear and missile programmes and justify a growing US military presence in the region.
"It is as clear as noonday that Obama will trumpet the same thing," he said.

The last two months have been a period of elevated tensions on the Korean peninsula, as South Korea and the United States conducted annual, large-scale military exercises. North Korea protested by test-firing dozens of short-range missiles and conducting its first mid-range missile tests for nearly four years.

On Monday, the South's Yonhap news agency, citing unidentified military sources, said increased activity had been observed at the North's underground Punggye-ri site where its three nuclear tests were carried out in 2006, 2009 and 2013.
"South Korean and US forces have been closely monitoring the latest development to detect signs of another test," one source told Yonhap.

At the end of last month, North Korea said it would not rule out a "new form" of nuclear test after the UN Security Council condemned its latest medium-range missile launches. Experts saw this as a possible reference to testing a uranium-based device or a miniaturised warhead small enough to fit on a ballistic missile.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
I noticed in this article and in a similar article on a Dutch website a reference to the seizure of the Mitsui O.S.K. "Baosteel Emotion" 226,434 deadweight-ton ore carrier. Is this just a matter of Mitsui O.S.K. not paying its dues or ( also ) a way to discourage repair of the Japanese finances?

What happened was that Mitsui leased two vessels from a Chinese company in 1936 for one year. In 1937 the vessels were commandeered by the Imperial Japanese Navy and later sunk. In 2007, the descendants of the Chinese company sued Mitsui and won. Mitsui understandably said they couldn't be held responsible because the IJN took the ships away and they didn't have a choice in the matter.

The seizure of the vessel is supposedly to do with settlement of the case, but it is rather extreme. I think the severity of the action is a sign that it's to do with the bad state of Sino-Japanese relations and China's trying to show its displeasure with Japan. Plenty of Chinese citizens win cases in court and find it hard to recover their awards, especially if it's against part of the Chinese state. Unfortunately I think this has caused relations with Japan to get even worse, not better.

Interest this also come at a time when China has reportedly decrease the frequency of CG patrols around Diaoyu Island. Almost as if Abe want to stoke up tension with China and see what the US would do about it.

The Spring Festival is coming up, and lots of people will be visiting Yasukuni tomorrow, so I don't think it has anything to do with that. If anything I think giving an offering rather than going in person was an attempt at a compromise.
 
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delft

Brigadier
OT
I can't understand everything about the Japanese position. But I think a strong non-nuclear Japan will be safer when it maintains good relations with the US, China, Russia and Korea in whatever form that country exists or will exist. That means an active diplomacy and the removal of the US forces in the country. Apparently the Japanese politicians continue to let themselves be dictated to by the US. In the circumstances the pivot might be very damaging to Japan.
 
What's a sign Obama's pivot towards Asia is floundering?

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Now why would Japan have to resort to all these petty childish stunts of late if they felt secure with Obama's pivot?

This happens right before Obama's trip to Asia meaning it's directed at him who'll have to hear an earful from ally South Korea. This also is a sign the Trans Pacific Partnership is falling apart because it was stated early that talks with Japan are just discussions and not agreements. Meaning Japan is holding out for a better bargain because they can since it's all about China and Obama is past the point of no return since he bet against China in his foreign policy.

It's a far stretch to say these events mean that the US pivot to Asia is floundering. Rather, it shows how much the US pivot is needed.

China, Japan, and North Korea all have the top priority of wanting more strategic space (aka "independence") in NE/East Asia.

Russia wants economic development but doesn't mind trading some of that for conflict that does not involve itself if it means neither China nor the US can dominate the region and everyone else's strategic bandwidths to deal with Russia are reduced.

Among the locals South Korea alone desires the status quo, though even it probably doesn't mind a stronger China that have common interests with it regarding Japan and North Korea.

The only common interest the US shares with any of the locals is with Japan, for a stronger Japan to contain China. Yet even this is complicated by Japan wanting to be more "independent". Therefore the US must devote more direct effort in shaping the region to align with its interests as much as possible.
 
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