I am worried And I think the PRC big wigs are worried. Many have viewed the man as the Closest link between Beijing and Pyongyang. If this is True then this means that any pull or push the Chinese had may have disappeared.
Could this be the sign of some political upheaval in NK? Or just the usual succession clean-up?
I am worried And I think the PRC big wigs are worried. Many have viewed the man as the Closest link between Beijing and Pyongyang. If this is True then this means that any pull or push the Chinese had may have disappeared.
I highly doubt that. China's influence over North Korea comes from the massive aid they send them, not from some possibly over-ambitious old guy.
To the semi sane person or leader yes you are correct.. but we're talking bout the Kims here. I mean the dude just had his uncle murdered! and I bet he was probably over his house for some fancy feast just last week!
C'mon let's be serious here. Do any of us seriously really think just because he's a despotic dictator, that will mean he can nuke or do whatever he wants and his staffs won't stop him? No matter how much of a messiah he is within his borders, he is only as powerful as the staffs who support them.
And all successful dictators(meaning those who can finish their reign) have this in common: they are sane, rational people, and they need the support of his senior staffs. Power only exists where people recognizes it, and the most important rule of this is that you make it attractive choice for people to recognize your power, while unappealing choice if one is to ignore your "legitimacy"(in the case of a dictator or power-seeker, they make sure disobedience is associated with fear, or the theme for the consequence). If they aren't, they couldn't see too many birthdays.
This also means something even more important: he can't go against this golden rule. If for these people, supporting him actually put themselves in danger, they will stop supporting him, or go against him in order to protect themselves. That said, he will not pull off something crazy that will send himself and all his staffs to death, since they will then be alarmed to do something about it or against him(because everyone looks after themselves. Heck if I'm one of his corrupted senior staffs and I know my life's in danger, I probably will disappear with my entire family one afternoon flying out of the country). THAT, is when you have your classic political instability where even the head of state is in serious jeopardy. This is when he acts in a way which he throws his game away and asks for his minions to turn against him. He loses his game by putting his values at risk("values" as in that they represent something critical to his instrument of power). I'm pretty sure all dictators know this golden rule the day they enter the political world.
To outsiders, dictators are just simply unpredictable to us, and to most people. However, unpredictable doesn't mean you're insane; just simply people can't guess their minds or figure out what they are about to do next. Dictators are especially specialized in micro-managing their social circles, and perhaps better at doing this than managing interstate relations. Being unpredictable is just him simply either steps ahead, or being extremely deceptive, manipulative, in order to stay above the game. So that said, we are getting our unknowns of him mixed with the stupid media reports and our lack of possessing the whole picture.
No matter how eccentric we envision Kim or his kind to be(including Hitler, Idi the Last King of Scotland LOL, Gaddafi, Hussein), we are the ones being stupid and taking a media image to our weird imaginations if we think they want to nuke the world next, or pull off some crazy sh!t "that no sane person will do", "get us all killed".
So him killing his uncle is probably just him doing housekeeping, and telling his folks what to and what not to. If his uncle is really something powerful, what we should look at is the steps and the events that had taken place up to this. That way, we can tell how far he had come into securing his power. My hypothesis is that if he executed his uncle without much foreplay(this probably is very unlikely to occur), and his uncle had never been known to the party as opposing to him, then Kim would have executed a poor move. On the other hand, if either his uncle had been known to be opposing him for many occasions, and there was a foreplay leading up to a trial and of the sort, then this lets everyone in his party to know what's going on and what to expect. Another question we should examine is the blood relations between him and this uncle. Is this uncle the father of his older brother? or his younger? Or just someone who's not important? And what's going to happen to the uncle's family? Either way, fear is for sure, but how he treats the family will send the ripple effects to the "community"(the Party).
Hmm writing this, I think I've got Stockholme Syndrome figured out haha...
C'mon let's be serious here. Do any of us seriously really think just because he's a despotic dictator, that will mean he can nuke or do whatever he wants and his staffs won't stop him? No matter how much of a messiah he is within his borders, he is only as powerful as the staffs who support them.
And all successful dictators(meaning those who can finish their reign) have this in common: they are sane, rational people, and they need the support of his senior staffs. Power only exists where people recognizes it, and the most important rule of this is that you make it attractive choice for people to recognize your power, while unappealing choice if one is to ignore your "legitimacy"(in the case of a dictator or power-seeker, they make sure disobedience is associated with fear, or the theme for the consequence). If they aren't, they couldn't see too many birthdays.
This also means something even more important: he can't go against this golden rule. If for these people, supporting him actually put themselves in danger, they will stop supporting him, or go against him in order to protect themselves. That said, he will not pull off something crazy that will send himself and all his staffs to death, since they will then be alarmed to do something about it or against him(because everyone looks after themselves. Heck if I'm one of his corrupted senior staffs and I know my life's in danger, I probably will disappear with my entire family one afternoon flying out of the country). THAT, is when you have your classic political instability where even the head of state is in serious jeopardy. This is when he acts in a way which he throws his game away and asks for his minions to turn against him. He loses his game by putting his values at risk("values" as in that they represent something critical to his instrument of power). I'm pretty sure all dictators know this golden rule the day they enter the political world.
To outsiders, dictators are just simply unpredictable to us, and to most people. However, unpredictable doesn't mean you're insane; just simply people can't guess their minds or figure out what they are about to do next. Dictators are especially specialized in micro-managing their social circles, and perhaps better at doing this than managing interstate relations. Being unpredictable is just him simply either steps ahead, or being extremely deceptive, manipulative, in order to stay above the game. So that said, we are getting our unknowns of him mixed with the stupid media reports and our lack of possessing the whole picture.
No matter how eccentric we envision Kim or his kind to be(including Hitler, Idi the Last King of Scotland LOL, Gaddafi, Hussein), we are the ones being stupid and taking a media image to our weird imaginations if we think they want to nuke the world next, or pull off some crazy sh!t "that no sane person will do", "get us all killed".
So him killing his uncle is probably just him doing housekeeping, and telling his folks what to and what not to. If his uncle is really something powerful, what we should look at is the steps and the events that had taken place up to this. That way, we can tell how far he had come into securing his power. My hypothesis is that if he executed his uncle without much foreplay(this probably is very unlikely to occur), and his uncle had never been known to the party as opposing to him, then Kim would have executed a poor move. On the other hand, if either his uncle had been known to be opposing him for many occasions, and there was a foreplay leading up to a trial and of the sort, then this lets everyone in his party to know what's going on and what to expect. Another question we should examine is the blood relations between him and this uncle. Is this uncle the father of his older brother? or his younger? Or just someone who's not important? And what's going to happen to the uncle's family? Either way, fear is for sure, but how he treats the family will send the ripple effects to the "community"(the Party).
Hmm writing this, I think I've got Stockholme Syndrome figured out haha...
Have to respecfully disagree on some things. He is not the typical run of the mill dictator in which case your analysis is right on. He IS insane! that is the very definition of insanity. Maybe a calculated, deious form of insait but insanity all the same. Also NK unlike most other countries where a dictator rules, NK is not only entirely close to the outside world but he (or at least his family) is look upon by the average NK as deity.. almost a demi God. Pretty much everyone in NK is brainwashed unlike other countries with dictators where the local populace at least know what's going on in the outside world. This is inspite of countless atrocities and sending thousands if not millions to hard labor camps where majority will most certainly meet their doom.
Also not sure where you got that nuke thing from. I never mentioned that in my post. My original contention was about the strain with Chinese support and that he may not care as much as you may think he does with the assasination and all. If anything I think that the West thinks he is more dependant on China than he really does or even care. I think he is far from being China's lap dog like most in the West think he is. While China certainly has some influence on NK I think we put too much stock in it.
I do agree on the housecleaning thing. That is partly insanity and partly human nature. Even in many corporations when a new CEO comes in he usually would bring with him overtime his 'buddies' to management to form his power base. Just that in Kim's case he go the extra mile of craziness. He is also less concern about the outside world because this was not done in secret. I'm sure in the past his dad and other NK leaders have done many assasinations on either friends or even family members but this is the first time I think where it is made relatively public on such a high profile individual not to mention a close relative of his.