What should China do when Japan & US conduct biggest ever military drill?

tphuang · Dec 20, 2010

Ambivalent said:
The Soviets had AGI's sitting just outside the 12 nm territorial limit off all our major coastal cities. We were told to leave them alone and not harass them. The Soviets once sailed a big battle group right off of Honolulu, clearly visible from the beach and all the big tourist hotels. No one said a thing. They were in international waters and had every right to be there.
International law regarding freedom of transit is only going to be honored if nations fully exercise their rights. China has many of her neighbors cowed, afraid to challenge China's claims in the South China Sea and Yellow Sea even when these mean surrendering their territory to China. China adds to the problem by trying to enforce territorial sovereignty in their EEZ. An EEZ is still international waters and ships may transit these freely by law, but only a powerful navy like ours and maybe Japan will exercise this right regularly against a nation like China. While China can and has attacked and beaten the Navy of Vietnam, and routinely arrests fishermen from the Philippines as they ply their ancient fishing grounds which China claims for herself, China won't attempt that against the US Navy, and the US is not going to surrender our navigational rights under the law of the sea simply because China is offended.
I wish China would put some ships off our coast so she can see that up to 12nm, we will say nothing. Even the Soviets understood this. What is wrong with China?

This argument doesn't really work, right? Soviet and US were in a stage of cold war. I know I have been out of the loop recently, but I don't believe China and US have reached that stage yet. The largest confrontations that China and US have right now are all commerce or foreign country related.

Having your navy right next to the doorstep of one of your largest trading partners without their consent is clearly a very aggressive action. In peace time, if US navy routinely sends ships to 15 nm off the coast of Brazil or India or South Africa, that would clearly be a provocative action. If there are constantly Chinese ships 15 nm off the coast of Cali, FoxNews and the right leaning media would all be calling for retaliatory actions. We'd have congressman and senators threatening actions against China. Heck, even when a Chinese company tried to set up a steel plant in America, we have local congressman asking for investigations. Do you really think they'd tolerate seeing Chinese ships that close to US soil? This is not the cold war anymore.

As for what should China do? It should just continue it's process of developing its economy, building its industrial base and building its navy. The more it spouts off, the more it pisses off its neighbours. Now, I do think eventually China will get strong enough that this would not be tolerated anymore. But China would have to wait a few more years for neighbouring countries to look at it as the natural leader of the region rather than looking at USA for directions. China will get there, but it won't get there by having its foreign minister telling nations around it that China is a large nation and they should listen to it. When Hilary Clinton told Cambodia that it needs a more balanced policy and should not become overly reliant on China, it clearly did not get received it Cambodia as well as the message would be received in Vietnam or Malaysia. Imo, she sounded pretty stupid. And China has sounded pretty stupid numerous times this year when it overplayed its strength a few years too early. It needs to go back, continue to build its economy, have the trust of its neighbours. The neighbouring countries will slowly give more ground to China over time. And there is nothing USA or Japan can do about that.

bladerunner · Dec 20, 2010

tphuang said:
And China has sounded pretty stupid numerous times this year when it overplayed its strength a few years too early. It needs to go back, continue to build its economy, have the trust of its neighbours. The neighbouring countries will slowly give more ground to China over time. And there is nothing USA or Japan can do about that.

Trouble is, the unease that China unleashed amongst the Asean nations won't be quickly forgotten.

MwRYum · Dec 20, 2010

bladerunner said:
Trouble is, the unease that China unleashed amongst the Asean nations won't be quickly forgotten.

Or more like...they'd feel easy with China only when it roll back to its poor and broken state that was 30 years ago. This modernized and resurrected China isn't what the West and ASEAN happy to see.

To say the least, 2 of the principle ASEAN nations have history of anti-Chinese, and those were pretty bloody to boot. So some feared once China finally complete its "rise from the ashes" the nationalistic China will make it hell to pay. Of course it is groundless but it gives something to think about.

Now, as much as each individual nation lack of the bargain power against China, neither can ASEAN ever form an united front on anything, so they all wait for the rallying call for US.

It's true that China still yet to meet its time to show its muscle, but for how long can they keep it under? Cold War is upon China once more, US and Japan will keep pushing China more and more, China will have to respond beyond mamby pamby protests made by the Foreign Affairs spokesperson in news conferences, or risk being seen weak by the opinion. Eventually, military response will be necessary, but will China be ready then?

advill · Dec 20, 2010

It looks like a new "Cold War" might start in the Asia-Pacific. Mao quoted a Russian Media report that the Chinese and Russian Navies will be conducting exercises in the Sea of Japan next year. It appears that countries are now taking sides. Which side is RIGHT or WRONG depends on who is the BULLY & AGGRESSOR based on their actions not words. 2011 does'nt look too good for the region.

SampanViking · Dec 20, 2010

tphuang said:
This argument doesn't really work, right? Soviet and US were in a stage of cold war. I know I have been out of the loop recently, but I don't believe China and US have reached that stage yet. The largest confrontations that China and US have right now are all commerce or foreign country related.

Having your navy right next to the doorstep of one of your largest trading partners without their consent is clearly a very aggressive action. In peace time, if US navy routinely sends ships to 15 nm off the coast of Brazil or India or South Africa, that would clearly be a provocative action. If there are constantly Chinese ships 15 nm off the coast of Cali, FoxNews and the right leaning media would all be calling for retaliatory actions. We'd have congressman and senators threatening actions against China. Heck, even when a Chinese company tried to set up a steel plant in America, we have local congressman asking for investigations. Do you really think they'd tolerate seeing Chinese ships that close to US soil? This is not the cold war anymore.

As for what should China do? It should just continue it's process of developing its economy, building its industrial base and building its navy. The more it spouts off, the more it pisses off its neighbours. Now, I do think eventually China will get strong enough that this would not be tolerated anymore. But China would have to wait a few more years for neighbouring countries to look at it as the natural leader of the region rather than looking at USA for directions. China will get there, but it won't get there by having its foreign minister telling nations around it that China is a large nation and they should listen to it. When Hilary Clinton told Cambodia that it needs a more balanced policy and should not become overly reliant on China, it clearly did not get received it Cambodia as well as the message would be received in Vietnam or Malaysia. Imo, she sounded pretty stupid. And China has sounded pretty stupid numerous times this year when it overplayed its strength a few years too early. It needs to go back, continue to build its economy, have the trust of its neighbours. The neighbouring countries will slowly give more ground to China over time. And there is nothing USA or Japan can do about that.

I think the problem here Tphuang is not the basic principal of Chinese policy but its reaction against the deliberate policy of others. The idea of China just having to wait a few more years is fine and dandy, but if you were a leading power facing displacement by China's ascent, would you just sit there and let them have a free ride?

I think that generally that this is potentially the most dangerous part of the Chinese ascendancy, as to try and "stop China" may still be a viable option, while in a few years time in may be all but impossible. If you were serious about trying to constrain or disrupt the trajectory of China then this is as late as you can afford to leave it, after having tried all sorts of internal shenanigans to change the system . By 2020 it will be game over and the gap increasingly untenable from about 2015 onwards.

MwRYum · Dec 20, 2010

SampanViking said:
I think the problem here Tphuang is not the basic principal of Chinese policy but its reaction against the deliberate policy of others. The idea of China just having to wait a few more years is fine and dandy, but if you were a leading power facing displacement by China's ascent, would you just sit there and let them have a free ride?

I think that generally that this is potentially the most dangerous part of the Chinese ascendancy, as to try and "stop China" may still be a viable option, while in a few years time in may be all but impossible. If you were serious about trying to constrain or disrupt the trajectory of China then this is as late as you can afford to leave it, after having tried all sorts of internal shenanigans to change the system . By 2020 it will be game over and the gap increasingly untenable from about 2015 onwards.

So perhaps the US should "nudge" Taiwan from its current stance, back to a more anti-China one? That'd be an easy one to get it in gear compare to other possibilities. Or egg India on in territorial claims?

delft · Dec 20, 2010

In 1689, the year after the Glorious Revolution, the Council of Amsterdam remarked that, in time, England ( the kingdom became "united" in 1707) would replace the Netherlands as the dominant power in European waters and beyond..
England was put on that road to greatness by tj invasion by the Dutch head of state, who became King William III of England.
The next war between the two was nearly a century later.

SampanViking · Dec 20, 2010

MwRYum said:
So perhaps the US should "nudge" Taiwan from its current stance, back to a more anti-China one? That'd be an easy one to get it in gear compare to other possibilities. Or egg India on in territorial claims?

I think the most interesting competition here is between money and weapons or if you prefer Business vs Security. All these nations are happy to sail around in their tubs and fire a few cannons with Uncle Sam, but when its all over they tend to straight away fly to Beijing to close some more deals!

bladerunner · Dec 20, 2010

MwRYum said:
So perhaps the US should "nudge" Taiwan from its current stance, back to a more anti-China one? That'd be an easy one to get it in gear compare to other possibilities. Or egg India on in territorial claims?

Going on the last election results, that should'nt be too hard to make some mischief there.

mods note >> bladerunner..Why do you have so much trouble with the quotes? It's easy..just saying.

popeye

tphuang · Dec 21, 2010

SampanViking said:
I think the problem here Tphuang is not the basic principal of Chinese policy but its reaction against the deliberate policy of others. The idea of China just having to wait a few more years is fine and dandy, but if you were a leading power facing displacement by China's ascent, would you just sit there and let them have a free ride?

I think that generally that this is potentially the most dangerous part of the Chinese ascendancy, as to try and "stop China" may still be a viable option, while in a few years time in may be all but impossible. If you were serious about trying to constrain or disrupt the trajectory of China then this is as late as you can afford to leave it, after having tried all sorts of internal shenanigans to change the system . By 2020 it will be game over and the gap increasingly untenable from about 2015 onwards.

A lot of it has to do with America. Now, I'm saying all of this as someone that lives in America and want the best for myself in the future. America is at a stage where the debt burden in the country has exceeded all level of sanity. In the coming years, America will have to make the painful choice of making huge cuts in its budget. And there will be debates over whether the cuts should be in health care or wealth transfer or education or energy or defense or intelligence services. If they make the kind of across the board cuts that I'm in favour of, America will have no choice but to adopt a more humble foreign policy. A lot of things could happen in 10 years, but there will be a point in the future when it will become obvious to ASEAN countries that this is a sphere that has permanently tilted to China's country. Not all of the countries will like it. If you look at the Western hemisphere, there are numerous countries that have elected anti-American leaders. That will obviously happen to China too.

Now as for China's policy toward Japan and South Korea. They are going to have to get a lot more level headed. You can't have Chinese fisherman going to other countries' waters and butting heads with their coast guard.

What should China do when Japan & US conduct biggest ever military drill?

tphuang

Lieutenant General

bladerunner

Banned Idiot

MwRYum

Major

advill

Junior Member

SampanViking

The Capitalist