War in Chechnya

I think the russians should continue to try and crush the rebellion in Chechnya. The US already had a very bloody civil war but I think Russia will have a harder time reunifying the Chechens because alot of them are radical islamist and see the Russians as an imperial power much like the US and UK is viewed in developing countries. Lets put it this way if they will commit atrocites like Beslan and the theater incident in moscow whats to say they wont get their hands on radioactive material for a dirty bomb from a nuclear Iran. Russia and the US needs to once and for all put the cold war behind us because we know what a war between the US and Russia would be. It would be the annihilation of the Earth. We need to further pool our efforts and destroy this scourge of terrorism on our planet. I bear no ill will towards the russians except that they keep arming regimes like Iran and Syria.Yes its good money, but its time for some ethics worldwide the days of dictators and authoritarian rule needs to come to an end this century.

read the book war in chechnya by Stasys Knezys and Romanas Sedlickas. Great read about the military operations and does not take sides.

One thing thats hilarous, thougth sad is that first after 94 the Chechens gained almoust heroic return in finnish neo-russophopic media, as all small nations fighting against Russia tends to...no proplem whatsoever, wery clearly they told as what to thing about the situation, who was who and what they were fighting for. Thougth bit bias in nature the reporting still was like ones usually did from wars, major strategical objectives told and so on...

but then after this certain septemper day in 2001...

suddenly the brave and gallant chechenfreedomfighters dissapear from the news...and return only as nameless terrorists blindly attacking russian civilians, and whats important in Finnish point of wiev, Russian soliers...
...sure there is the obligatory whine about HR situation in Chenchenya, but its too mandatory to crasp any attention...the terrorists have gained anonyme and enemy-status overnigth.

I agree. Before 9/11, the Chechens were regarded as heroes fighting off the evil Russians. Now it is the other way around simply because the people trying to gain independence are mostly Muslims (not all of them are even radical).

don't really think it's the 9/11 that pushed them into the terrorist camp.. it's more the school hostage/theatre bombings that put them in the terrorist camp and made the russians the good guys.

because back in the day (1990s) russians are still kind of considered as the enemy by the west, and chechnians are freedom fighters. but freedom fighters don't take kids hostage and kill innocent people going to watch a movie. with those two acts alone and some global media, everyone now sees them as terrorists that kills innocent kids and movie goers.

I think I have a reason why Checnya is so important. From what I have heard, Checnya has a lot of oil. So much oil that Russia can really restart its economy if it got all this oil. Now, it may be farfetched, but that is probably the reason why some Gulf states and even some Western countries had been or still are supporting the Checens. Any truth to that?

One last thing: the Russians aren't at all in control Checnya. Militants control large amounts of territory and Russia soldiers are killed on a daily basis. However, the Russians did quite a gruesome job of wiping out a good chunk of the population. Recently the Chechens have given permission for a man to marry up to four wives because so many women have been widowed and so many men have been killed in the conflict.

I dont believe that Chechens have oil, but the oil/gas pipelines should go trough them but cannot as long the terretory is unstable. And this pipeline is offcourse benefit to russia. If they would be oil, then our most beloved friends of freedom would have urge to liberate chechens from froces of evil, dont you think?

But Chechenia will eventually end up to be independed. Like in all other occasion, the gurellia war cannot be won, expecially by such inneffective ways than Russians are rebelling it. Main fault from russian side is the usage of conscripts which has already coused political proplems in russia.

I would believe that Russia is still keen to regain control (or at least a controlling influence) in its former Caucasian Soviet republics. This is especially true of the Azeri Oil fields around the Caspian. Obviously to do this Russia has to stabilise its own southern border and prevent further fragmentation of its peripheral republics.

Control of this area is of major geopolitcal significance. For Russia and its Allies, (like China) it secures more major oil reserves (of a particular type, not all Oil is the same) and connects a major land bridge to its friend Iran. Just as importantly as securing both of these things for itself, it denies them to its competitors, ie the West.

What is the Wests view of Chechenya?, probably the status quo as a victory on either side would be viewed as destabilising and counter to Western interest. A nasty, expensive, open ended and politically damaging local conflict, which keeps Russia tied up and busy is probably just what Western Strategist wish for and seek to prolong.

well Russia has its quarelles in georgia...thougth Im bit dissapointed to the western reaction to Georgias whining about 'russian sabotage' over blowing up of that gas pipe...
But I think that Europe, or least its media has only recent weeks become aware how big part of our enercy comes from russia. And as the fuels are the most common reasons for wars nowadays, I see no peacefull future in central asia.

Thougth some of the most 'clewer' minded conspiracytheoryfans sees US invasion of afganistan as major entrance to a yet another area of oil and natural gas that US hands werent yet extended, but certain is that US precense has been major boost to Central asian former soviet republics to seek alternative speheres of influence. This has made hillariosly tiny state to boast and brattle towards Moscow as have the tiny Baltic states made so under EU/NATO umbrella. Thougth im not keen supporter of the idea, its almoust inevitable that Russian foreing policy starts slowly turn towards anti-western or att least regaining power status of the USSR once again and be true player in the world policy. Wheter this is even possiple to Russia of today, it certainly would fit into dreams of many those who seek an enemy here in west...
Sad it seems, but there are certain marks of bad times in the air if You want to seek them. The current beat of the world slowly chantes us towards one big squarrel to redraw the ownership maps of important ra-materials...

Ok Gollevainen - lets go off topic for a second just for some background, based on my personal opinion.

Sure Chechenya is a peice of the Geopolitical Jigsaw and competition you refer too, but how did we get to this position.

Broadly Western policy for 40 years was to destroy the Soviet Union, period. It achieved this objective. Had the West pushed at this point, the former SU would have imploded and collapsed completely and some parties wanted to cause this to happen. Others however saw the risk of this enterprise and realised that a former Nucleur Superpower in Anarchy was seriously dangerous. especially with lots of Far Right Russian Nationalists in a strong and popular position.

The answer seems to have been to roll in gently with a series of peaceful democratic revolutions, well financed by the West via NGO's etc which could easily rout the bankrupt former Soviets. these revolutions would have swept into Russia and also the PRC. replacing Communism with Liberla Democracy. Well for a while this worked (and today is still working to an extent). Two things threw a spanner in the works:
1 - the Balkans - where the West had to spend years securing a problem in the Rear Flank.
2 - Tianaiman Square - Where plans went off half cock too soon and were easily dealt with by the better orgainsed CCP.

These factors aside, had Russia been alone, even with delays and diversions, the West would have probably overun it by now, especially with Yeltsin at the Helm.

Then things went seriously wrong - All the planners; focused intently on Russia, had taken their eye of the PRC.

Suddenly Russia had a strong friend and Buttress. Yeltsin went and Putin came - no more tame Russians.

Now I believe Western planning is in utter disarray - they simply have no plan to deal with a Russia backed by a rising Chinese Superpower. Revolution has stalled and even been bounced back.

Russia is now sandwiched between two massive powers, the big question is how will Russia deal with a Rising China? will it act as a conductor, passing all the stress to its Western Borders to Impact the West directly? or will it act as a resistor and risk being crushed by the pressures being asserted at either end?

We are in a game where the rules have suddenley and unexpectedly changed and no one is really sure how to play anymore. Hence why the West wishes to keep the status quo with Chechenya.

Like I said. just my personal view