US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

Brumby said:

Elections has consequences as it is often quoted. What do you expect from an ex community organiser? Now that I have got that off, I agree it is simply incompetence.

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I'm no fan of Obama, and I agree his administration is at times incompetent. But, what's your context in the matter?

Latest development is that McCain is seeking the same answers.

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McCain Seeks Clarity on Recent U.S. South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operation

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Senator McCain is a patriot and I appreciate his service for the country. Unfortunately, he's also gun happy on foreign policy, as indicated by the fact he supported every single military action since his election to Congress, and argued for even more. Given that track record, it's easy to understand his preference for confrontations with China in East and South China Seas, and with Russia in Syria and Ukraine.

Blackstone said:

I'm no fan of Obama, and I agree his administration is at times incompetent. But, what's your context in the matter?

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The point being that the recent FON messaging is another example of an administration that is lead by someone who has effectively not demonstrated any track record of successfully managing anything. This is just another addition to the list.

Blackstone said:

Senator McCain is a patriot and I appreciate his service for the country. Unfortunately, he's also gun happy on foreign policy, as indicated by the fact he supported every single military action since his election to Congress, and argued for even more. Given that track record, it's easy to understand his preference for confrontations with China in East and South China Seas, and with Russia in Syria and Ukraine.

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I do not see a policy of executing FON as confronting. If China wish to see it as such that is their issue. I believe the US needs to exercise the FONOP with firmness, clarity and consistency.

Brumby said:

The point being that the recent FON messaging is another example of an administration that is lead by someone who has effectively not demonstrated any track record of successfully managing anything. This is just another addition to the list.

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I’m not sure why you believe Obama is incompetent on recent SCS naval operation, since it’s not at all clear Obama has blundered on the FON vs. innocent passage narrative. Most of the ASEAN countries care less about FON and more about increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington. The minority of nations that care have mixed views;
Vietnam is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Philippines is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Indonesia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Malaysia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Australia is for FON against everyone, but don’t want to be pressed into joint patrols

The rest of ASEAN don’t want any trouble with either China or the United States.

I do not see a policy of executing FON as confronting. If China wish to see it as such that is their issue. I believe the US needs to exercise the FONOP with firmness, clarity and consistency.

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Whether FON is confrontational or not is only important in minds of US and China. The rest of Asia would go along with both Beijing and Washington, should the two come to a modus vivendi. Right now, China sees FON as confrontational, and that's the whole banana. Unless China could be convinced FON isn't threatening to its security interests, or the US backs off roaming near China's shores, then there will be increasing great power friction.

Blackstone said:

I’m not sure why you believe Obama is incompetent on recent SCS naval operation, since it’s not at all clear Obama has blundered on the FON vs. innocent passage narrative. Most of the ASEAN countries care less about FON and more about increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington. The minority of nations that care have mixed views;
Vietnam is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Philippines is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Indonesia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Malaysia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Australia is for FON against everyone, but don’t want to be pressed into joint patrols

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Can you provide source to this or is it just your personal assertion?

Blackstone said:

I’m not sure why you believe Obama is incompetent on recent SCS naval operation, since it’s not at all clear Obama has blundered on the FON vs. innocent passage narrative.

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The nature of what constitute a FON is not difficult to comprehend nor the objectives behind it. However if you read every post analysis of the USS Larssen transit in question by every commentator surrounding this event is essentially "what just happened?". Senator McCain had to write a letter to the Secretary of Defence asking exactly the same. The bucket stops with the CIC - period.

Blackstone said:

Most of the ASEAN countries care less about FON and more about increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington. The minority of nations that care have mixed views;
Vietnam is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Philippines is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Indonesia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Malaysia is for FON against China, but not for FON against itself
Australia is for FON against everyone, but don’t want to be pressed into joint patrols

The rest of ASEAN don’t want any trouble with either China or the United States.

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The ASEAN nations want to have the cake and eat it except the cake is melting and they have to decide as events are catching up on them.

Blackstone said:

Whether FON is confrontational or not is only important in minds of US and China. The rest of Asia would go along with both Beijing and Washington, should the two come to a modus vivendi. Right now, China sees FON as confrontational, and that's the whole banana. Unless China could be convinced FON isn't threatening to its security interests, or the US backs off roaming near China's shores, then there will be increasing great power friction.

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China is committed to creating a strategic space for itself. FON, International tribunals, et al are just obstacles in its path and it is responding with a repertoire of instruments using lawfare to ambiguity, sprinkled with bellicose statements. I don't think China has any interest in being convinced.

Brumby said:

I do not see a policy of executing FON as confronting. If China wish to see it as such that is their issue. I believe the US needs to exercise the FONOP with firmness, clarity and consistency.

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Hehe, the problem with confrontation is that it doesn't matter what the party conducting an action thinks it is, it all depends on how the other party on the receiving end of an action perceives it.

That goes for not only geopolitics but also any kind of interpersonal relationships.

SamuraiBlue said:

Can you provide source to this or is it just your personal assertion?

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Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia all said they welcome US presence in SCS, that's easy to Google, so it's reasonable to infer they're for US FON against China. The US also conducted FON operations against all of them. and It's doubtful they're in favor of US FON conducted against themselves. Australia debated whether to join US FON in the SCS, and decided not to. That's also easily Googled.

Brumby said:

China is committed to creating a strategic space for itself. FON, International tribunals, et al are just obstacles in its path and it is responding with a repertoire of instruments using lawfare to ambiguity, sprinkled with bellicose statements. I don't think China has any interest in being convinced.

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I mean, the US could always offer to withdraw the majority of its military forces from the western pacific in a grand bargain with China, which would probably do quite nicely to convince China that the US is committed to FON but won't seek to "abuse" its FON rights around China's periphery by stationing and deploying many military forces there...

I kid, of course -- this is geopolitics and the US has the ability to use whatever advantages it wants to fulfill its strategic needs, and same goes for China.

Bltizo said:

Hehe, the problem with confrontation is that it doesn't matter what the party conducting an action thinks it is, it all depends on how the other party on the receiving end of an action perceives it.

That goes for not only geopolitics but also any kind of interpersonal relationships.

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We then have to get to the source of the problem. If China wants to pursue an agenda by fiat and doesn't care how others perceive its actions, what moral position is the argument based on to expect a set of reactions to conform to conditions that China itself rejects.

Bltizo said:

I kid, of course -- this is geopolitics and the US has the ability to use whatever advantages it wants to fulfill its strategic needs, and same goes for China.

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Precisely why I feel we have gone past the notion of convincing but rather that each side are making strategic moves it deems necessary to protect its own interest.