US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

MwRYum said:

Pretty much this is what's the situation so far:
The actual status quo is unchanged, China still has their island bases, the US still doing what they've been doing all this time.

The biggest casualty is Chinese pride, I reckon - consider all the tones seen on all newswires and various forums in and out of China, the fact that USN do pretty much as they pleased left Chinese took a thousand stabs on their pride...and the stabbings set to go round 2 when the USN going to take the Japanese navy along for the ride.

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If that's the case than how come China's island are still being constructed? Also what if new China's island building continues in a new location? As a result all that FON posturing did not do anything to stop it. Therefore this end's up as a major lost of face since that's the purpose of military flexing and posturing in the first place.

MwRYum said:

The biggest casualty is Chinese pride, I reckon - consider all the tones seen on all newswires and various forums in and out of China, the fact that USN do pretty much as they pleased left Chinese took a thousand stabs on their pride...and the stabbings set to go round 2 when the USN going to take the Japanese navy along for the ride.

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Two sides to every Coin. A wounded pride could be a good thing, it could serves as a catalyst or sense of urgency for greater drive for militarization program, or even breakthrough in certain areas.
1996 caused the ASBM program. Recent Philippines taking China to court causes land reclamation. As you can see, China does need some motivation factors to make it go.

This would go back and forth, back and forth till China reaches parity, then probably China would be left alone.

China warns US it could spark war with 'provocative acts' in South China Sea

China has warned the US that its “dangerous and provocative acts” in the

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could lead to “a minor incident that sparks war”.

China’s naval commander, Admiral Wu Shengli, issued the warning to his American counterpart Admiral John Richardson during video conference talks on Thursday aimed at defusing tension in the region, according to a Chinese naval statement.

“If the United States continues with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could well be a seriously pressing situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that sparks war,” the statement paraphrased Wu as saying.

“I hope the US side cherishes the good situation between the Chinese and US navies that has not come easily and avoids these kinds of incidents from happening again,” Wu said.

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Bltizo,
Would you care to comment about the statements made on the Chinese side whether they are accurately reported and is not some translation error to begin with.

Brumby said:

China warns US it could spark war with 'provocative acts' in South China Sea

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Bltizo,
Would you care to comment about the statements made on the Chinese side whether they are accurately reported and is not some translation error to begin with.

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From what I understand, the quoting of the Admiral's words seem quite accurate.

The title of the article (as well as a few other articles about the same issue) is a little bit awkward, imo, as it makes it sound like the Admiral is threatening war, rather than merely stating that continued confrontations like this could result in circumstances of where a minor incident could spiral to war.

tidalwave said:

Two sides to every Coin. A wounded pride could be a good thing, it could serves as a catalyst or sense of urgency for greater drive for militarization program, or even breakthrough in certain areas.
1996 caused the ASBM program. Recent Philippines taking China to court causes land reclamation. As you can see, China does need some motivation factors to make it go.

This would go back and forth, back and forth till China reaches parity, then probably China would be left alone.

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well said, totally agree ......

tidalwave said:

Two sides to every Coin. A wounded pride could be a good thing, it could serves as a catalyst or sense of urgency for greater drive for militarization program, or even breakthrough in certain areas.
1996 caused the ASBM program. Recent Philippines taking China to court causes land reclamation. As you can see, China does need some motivation factors to make it go.

This would go back and forth, back and forth till China reaches parity, then probably China would be left alone.

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Indeed, the impetus to militarize the new island strongholds (eventhough Beijing insisted they were mainly for civilian purpose) would be stronger and with more backing...ok, the scale and dimension of the project from the beginning points to none other than an enhanced military presence, now that Washington played hardball, Beijing can easily argue that the kind of military presence has proven a matter of necessity, if not rush the project's tempo even more now.

Still, on the surface, taking hits and not hitting back will put Bejing at an disadvantage because clearly, unlike the old days, Beijing can't easily tell Chinese to just swallow their pride, unless the Chinese can be seen score back some points, be it on this front or on some other fronts. Beijing has to please the home crowd like everyone else. That said, Beijing has to throw some real and effective punches back, mere harsh words on the editorals of People Daily just don't cut it anymore...alas, Beijing's option at that end also very limited.

MwRYum said:

Indeed, the impetus to militarize the new island strongholds (eventhough Beijing insisted they were mainly for civilian purpose) would be stronger and with more backing...ok, the scale and dimension of the project from the beginning points to none other than an enhanced military presence, now that Washington played hardball, Beijing can easily argue that the kind of military presence has proven a matter of necessity, if not rush the project's tempo even more now.

Still, on the surface, taking hits and not hitting back will put Bejing at an disadvantage because clearly, unlike the old days, Beijing can't easily tell Chinese to just swallow their pride, unless the Chinese can be seen score back some points, be it on this front or on some other fronts. That said, Beijing has to throw some real and effective punches back, mere harsh words on the editorals of People Daily just don't cut it anymore...alas, Beijing's option at that end also very limited.

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Militarising and fortifying those new islands would be counter enough.

The USN can do all the FON patrols it wants, but the whole dynamic of the situation will change from one where the USN is flexing its muscles and showing strength to one where China holds the advantage.

It would be akin to 96 when the US sailed a carrier through the Taiwan Strait. At the time, it was almost a taunt, where the USN was saying, "here we are, take a shot if you think you are hard enough" knowing the PLA at the time had little chance to seriously threaten them while they could do serious damage to China with their aircraft and weapons - its basically gunboat diplomacy with a modern twist, but the underlying threat is just the same as it always was.

If they tried that now, they would know that the PLA would wipe them off the face of the earth any time it wants, so a repeat performance in any future conflict would just be plain stupid.

Similar thing with FONOPs around the islands after they have been militarised.

As I have said right from the start, these US FONOPs are pointless at best and an own goal more likely, as they try to prove a point that was never seriously in doubt, but comes at significant cost for the US, both diplomatically and strategically.

Without the FONOPS, Beijing would have had a hard time justifying arming those new islands. With the backdrop of the US FONOPS, and especially if others join in, it would give Beijing an actual reason and justification to do so (not that the western press will see it that way of course).

I often find it ironic of the highest order that even though the west loves to attribute and dismiss Chinese intentions to "saving face" (which itself is a deliberate mistranslation by applying a pedantically inaccurate literal translation of the component words of a phrase to mock and belittle), yet it is almost always western governments who make short-sighted decisions to the detriment of their own long term national interests just because what they did would play well in the press for a news cycle or two.

Both sides will be destroyed in a war. Both sides know this.
I suppose the question is, provided the US continues to exercise FON, will the Chinese risk physical confrontation or turn up the pressure elsewhere?

lucretius said:

Both sides will be destroyed in a war. Both sides know this.
I suppose the question is, provided the US continues to exercise FON, will the Chinese risk physical confrontation or turn up the pressure elsewhere?

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Within the SCS, USN FONOPs actually serves Chinese interests by given China the perfect pretext and excuse to formally militarising its newly built islands and laying the blame at America's door for that decision.

Unless the USN does something truly and explicitly against international laws, like coming within 500m of an island or trying to land people on them, China will not do anything to physically stop or disrupt FONOPs.

I think a key test to see if this will escalate further is if other countries, especially countries with a direct stake in territorial disputes, start using FON as a pretext to try and challenge Chinese sovereignty and control of islands and features.

The Chinese government is complaining because it is thinking 2, 3 steps ahead and is worried now that the USN has set the precedent, the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines will start following suit with their own FON missions routinely close to Chinese controlled islands and features, especially around those that have always qualified for their own 12nm territorial seas.

That is when things could get heated and out of hand, fast, especially if China pushes back and mounts some FON ops of its own against countries who also control contested islands and features.

Contrary to western propaganda, China does not want chaos or escalation, but these USN FON ops risks turning the whole region into the wild west.

The only way that this FON exercise could be meaningful is for the US to further escalate the situation, i.e., as plawolf mentioned, if its allies in the region starts to do FON missions themselves.

I think the Chinese most probably would have already forseen such a move from the US, and it's in their calculations before embarking on its current island reclaimations.

As it is, the new normal of China's expanding influence and control of the South China Sea continues. Those reclaimed islands would still be there, they will get their airstrips and there's nothing anyone can do about it short of actually bombing or landing troops on them.

Perhaps the US and its allies could enforce a trade embargo, or some other meaningful trade sanctions that could really hurt China... but I don't think so.

Or better yet, they could do the same kind and scale of reclaimations that China's doing. But do they have the will?

Now the geo-political struggle is being played out at the South China Sea or within the "First Islands Chain". A decade or two ago, it was in the Taiwan Straits, right outside China's coastline. What will happen a decade or two into the future?