Per the tireless (but, in fact, recently retired) Ronald O'Roarke
:
A December 18, 2025, press article reporting on a draft version of the Golden Fleet force-level goal stated that the draft version included 12 ballistic missile submarines, 54 attack submarines, 9 aircraft carriers, 67 large surface combatants, 12 Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), 24 other small surface combatants (frigates, by implication), 27 larger amphibious ships (including 9 LHA/LHD-type amphibious assault ships and 19 LPD-type amphibious ships), 27 smaller amphibious ships (i.e., Medium Landing Ships, or LSMs), and 100 large unmanned surface vessels (USVs). (Michael Fabey, "US Navy Mulls Major Concept Changes For Future Force," Jane's Navy International, December 18, 2025.) As reported numbers, these details are not necessarily authoritative. Other draft versions with differing numbers may have been prepared. Figures in the final version may differ from those in draft versions.
Now, these ostensible numbers are really weird. To be honest, I find it difficult to reconcile them with what we know of the Trump administration's instincts, as expressed most recently in the desire for a 50% uplift in defence spending. But notably, this isn't the first time that a retreat from the 66 SSN goal first expressed in the 2016 FSA has been mooted. Back in 2020, acting SecNav Thomas Moldy
:
“There are certain elements of that that, [with] industrial base constraints, we're not going to be able to do that as quick,” he added. “For example, even in the last force structure [assessment from 2016], we were looking at possibly 60 to 66 submarines as a requirement. We don't have the industrial base to do that. We can probably get to 50 or so in the next 10 years, but that doesn't mean we still want to keep driving towards that” number.
So this notion of retreating from a 66 SSN inventory goal is one that has been raised before, and was explicitly framed not in the context of operational requirements but in the context of industrial base constraints.
But here's the thing: the 2016 FSA goal was
already shaped by resource constraints. From the
:
It should not be assumed that this force level is the “desired” force size the Navy would pursue if resources were not a constraint – rather, this is the level that balances an acceptable level of warfighting risk to our equipment and personnel against available resources and achieves a force size that can reasonably achieve success.
Beyond this general statement, one can observe that the target inventory goal of 66 SSNs maps precisely on to the anticipated 33-year service life of a
Virginia-class SSN, i.e. inducting two boats per year each with an anticipated service life of 33 years tends to a steady-state inventory of 66 boats, which reflects the then recent transition to ordering two boats per year. It's implausible that this is a coincidence.
So all of this looks like the industrial tail wagging the Navy "requirements" dog. And so far as I can tell, it is increasingly out of step with developments in the threat environment and corresponding tasking requirements that by all rights
should be generating those inventory goals. Back when the 2016 FSA first lifted the inventory goal from 48 to 66 SSNs, the qualitative improvements and quantitative increase in PLAN nuclear submarine production that is only now beginning to bear fruit was scarcely on the horizon -- recalling that anti-submarine warfare has historically been the
primary role of the American SSN inventory. Also over the past decade and going forward, the WestPac environment is becoming progressively more hostile to USN surface assets, even as the SSN inventory is increasingly tasked with a broader range of missions, most notably the rise of significant land-attack and stand-off anti-ship roles. Further, public US wargame material suggests that SSNs are indeed regarded as amongst the most pivotal of American assets in conflict scenarios with China.
My point is that the 2016 FSA target of 66 SSNs was likely inadequate even at the time, and that operational requirements have only grown over the subsequent decade. Yet the actual rumblings we have heard since have been of a
retreat from that target. There appears to be a large and growing dissonance here.