US Financial Crisis/Bailout, China's Role

FugitiveVisions

Junior Member
From article posted half an hour ago:

The other side of the coin is that the Postal Service gets its monopoly and its various privileges-including exemption from taxes, zoning laws, and vehicle license requirement&-at the cost of being subservient to Congress.

Sure, no unfair competitive advantages at all. Taxes? Zoning laws? Vehicle license requirements? They can't possibly add any cost to service offered by private parties. Not at all.

Anyway, back to the global crisis.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
You better read where those articles are coming from.

By the way, Milton Friedman hailed Hong Kong as his ideal capitalistic society in his documentary Free to Choose. Yeah, Hong Kong which has a law that requires all taxis to use LPG as their fuel, and which also runs a public mail service.

And jeez, anyone can put a private mail box in their own back yard, or have said letters or boxes left in the doorstep. Or go to the local UPS or FedEx office when called to pickup their mail and package. UPS or FedEx does not have to invest in a postal office with lots of expensive steel boxes.
 
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crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Another one bites the dust, this time a media empire.

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LOS ANGELES, Dec. 8 (Xinhua) -- Faced with a mountain of debt and shrinking advertising revenue, the Chicago-based Tribune Co., which owns the Los Angeles Times, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.

The company made the move as a way to restructure payments due to banks and other creditors following the sale of the company to real estate magnate Sam Zell last year, sources said.

Tribune's Board of Directors has approved the action filed in federal court in Delaware, the Los Angeles Times said.

According to the paper, the Tribune Co. had about 300 million U.S. dollars in cash on hand, enough to make a 70 million dollars payment due Monday. But Tribune executives were unable to strike a deal with lenders to restructure the rest of the company's debt.

(continued under link)
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
This matches what the realtors are already saying.

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Paper: Chinese tourists go house-hunting in U.S.
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2008-12-08 13:21:12 Print

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis 

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) -- Chinese visitors have been seeking to buy foreclosures and other bargain properties in the U.S. plunging housing market in recent months, a newspaper reported Sunday.

The trips are part of a broader trend of individuals and businesses in China seeking greater investment opportunities abroad, the Los Angeles Times said.

"With housing prices crashing in the United States, home-buying trips to America are becoming one of the more popular tour group packages in China," the paper said.

Overseas Chinese have been buying U.S. properties for years. What is different now is that they are starting to do it in large groups and quite openly, said the paper.

"Before, it was kind of private, a quiet thing among friends," Jamie Lee, a Chinese American who runs the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau office in Beijing, was quoted as saying. "Now it's full-blown... It's huge."

The Chinese do have a lot of cash to spend. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that there were more than 391,000 millionaire households in Chinese mainland last year, up from 310,000 reported the previous year.

Home prices in the United States have fallen more sharply than in China, and many Chinese consider the American market a highly alluring place to invest and live because of the United States' developed economy, the paper said.
 

dlhh

New Member
The president-elect will be able to turn for help to the China-savvy individuals he has brought into his circle. Timothy Geithner, 47, Obama’s choice for Treasury secretary, studied Chinese and has lived in China. His transition team includes Jeffrey Bader, a China specialist with a 27-year career in government that spans trade and national security.

Among the possible candidates for ambassador are John L. Thornton, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia who has been a professor in Beijing; Richard Holbrooke, 67, who dealt with China as Clinton’s United Nations ambassador; and Shirk, 63, a visiting fellow at the Asia Society in New York.

Lieberthal expects Obama’s administration will engage Beijing in what he describes as “critical transnational issues of the 21st century.”

Interdependence will work to both countries’ advantage, Shirk says, “if it motivates us to do our best to cooperate rather than taking potshots.”

Actually, Shrik should be a candidate to be the ambassador as she understands China quite well. Read her book, China - a fragile superpower.

This artilcle by Indira A.R. Lakshmanan is quite good as it shows that the next administration may be more co-operative and friendly. Of course it does not change the dynamics of the military relationship where US main desire is to be the global military power.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Its a free fall situation. We are so doomed.

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ChangeWave Research Report:

4Q 2008/1Q 2009 Corporate Quarterly Report

Grim Snapshot – The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

December 8, 2008
Download the Adobe Acrobat PDF version of this report:
4q1q_20081208.pdf [217K]

Overview: Most everyone knows it’s a jungle out there for the U.S. economy, but how does this recession measure up to the last one we went through in 2001?

ChangeWave’s latest corporate quarterly survey shows the U.S. economy caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than that of 2001 – with alarmingly low 4th Quarter sales projections, abysmal visibility, a deteriorating job market and a severe pullback in capital spending.

The survey was conducted November 20-December 1, 2008 and a total of 3,029 U.S. respondents participated.

Highlights:

4th Quarter 2008 Performance: A whopping one-in-two respondents (51%) project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 4th Quarter 2008 – 16-pts worse than the previous quarter. Only 11% say their company sales will come in Above Plan – a 7-pt decrease.

As the following chart shows, these 4th Quarter (Dec ’08) corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession.

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Pipeline: There is also a huge plunge in visibility going forward. Sales pipeline projections for 1st Quarter 2009 show just 9% of respondents say their company will come in Above Plan – 12-pts less than the previous survey. At the same time, 39% report they’ll come in Below Plan – 18-pts worse than previously

Once again, these are by far the lowest sales pipeline numbers ever recorded in a ChangeWave quarterly survey.

Massive Pullback in Cap Spending: In perhaps the most ominous sign of rapidly deteriorating U.S. business conditions, survey respondents project a massive cutback in capital spending going forward.

Only 6% project an increase in their company’s 1st Quarter capital budget, while nearly half (45%) project a decrease. Note that these are the worst cap spending numbers ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey since we began asking this question back in December 2002.

Most disturbingly, capital spending is plunging at a time of year when we normally experience seasonal increases. This becomes immediately apparent when you look at the change for each December - beginning with December 2003 - in the Overall Capital Budgets chart above.

Ever since 2003, December has always been the peak point of the yearly cycle in this survey – up until December of 2007. That was when we had the critical early warning that cap spending was very seriously breaking down. Continued deterioration for the next 4 quarters led us to this December’s historic collapse.

Labor Market Woes. The survey also shows an unprecedented deterioration in the labor market. One-third (31%) of respondents say there are Less new hires in their company at this point in the 4th Quarter vs. last quarter – a 9-pt increase since the previous survey. Only 8% say there are More new hires.

Credit Crisis Tightens its Chokehold. Over the past year we’ve been measuring the impact of the credit crisis on U.S. businesses – generally thought to be one of the key causes of the recession. Yet despite the U.S. government’s numerous attempts to open the credit spigot, the credit crunch continues to worsen.

Three-in-ten respondents (30%) now say that it is harder for their company to borrow money than it was just 90 days ago – a 5-pt jump from previously. Less than 1% say it is easier to borrow money.

Biggest Drop in the Price of Products. The slowing economy continues to drive down the prices companies are charging for their products.

Simply put, the current results show a major acceleration of the downward price pressures we first picked up in our September survey – capping a dramatic turnaround from the upward price spikes we saw during the first half of 2008.

Only 7% now report prices are rising for their company's products –15-pts less than the previous quarter. At the same time, the percentage reporting falling prices (24%) has nearly doubled.

We also note that there has been an improvement in the ability to purchase commodities. One-in-four (26%) say it is easier for their company to purchase commodities than it was 90 days ago – a five-fold increase from previously. At the same time, just 8% say it’s become harder – 16-pts less.

Bottom Line: The current survey results provide clear evidence that the U.S. recession has now entered a far more virulent period – characterized by an unprecedented and rapidly accelerating freefall.

Moreover there is no relief yet in sight. Rather, 1st Quarter sales pipeline projections are by far the most dismal of any ChangeWave survey of the past eight years, and massive cutbacks are occurring in capital spending going forward.

To top it off, the U.S. credit crunch is now weighing even more heavily on U.S. businesses than at any previous point of the past year.

Further negative indicators include a rapid deterioration of the labor market, coupled with a huge increase in cancelled orders and a pullback in customer willingness to spend.
Summary of Key Findings
U.S. Economy in a Rapidly Accelerating Freefall
# Only 11% of respondents say their 4th Quarter company sales will come in Above Plan – a 7-pt decrease from previous quarter
# An unprecedented 51% say 4Q sales will come in Below Plan – 16-pts worse than previously, and the worst in a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001


Credit Crisis Weighs Even More Heavily On U.S. Businesses
# 30% say it is harder for their company to borrow money than it was 90 days ago – 5-pts worse than previous survey
# Less than 1% say it's easier


Record Low Visibility for 1Q Pipeline – With No Relief in Sight
# Just 9% project their company sales will come in Above Plan for 1Q – 12-pts less than previous quarter
# 39% say they’ll come in Below Plan – 18-pts worse than previously


Massive Pullback in 1Q Capital Spending
# Far more project a decrease in their overall 1Q capital budget (45%) than an increase (6%) – a net 22-pts worse than previously


Accelerating Labor Market Woes
# Only 8% see more new hires in their company this quarter and 31% see less – a net 17-pts worse than previous quarter


Biggest Drop in Prices Ever Recorded in a ChangeWave Quarterly Survey
# Only 7% say prices are rising for their company's products – 15 pts less than previous quarter
# At the same time 24% say prices are falling – 10-pts more than previously


Improved Ability to Purchase Commodities
# 26% report it’s easier for their company to purchase commodities than 90 days ago – a five-fold increase from previously
# 8% report it’s harder for their company to purchase commodities – but that's 16-pts improved from previously
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I remember when real estate prices started climbing last in California, they were blaming people from Hong Kong for buying up property. I wonder what they'll say about this if it does anything.


From the Los Angeles Times
Chinese tour groups go house-hunting in U.S.
The cash-rich visitors are looking for bargains in the plunging market. The trips are part of a broader trend of individuals and businesses in China seeking greater investment opportunities abroad.
By Don Lee and David Pierson

December 7, 2008

Reporting from Shanghai — Caravans of cash-rich Chinese in Hummers and Lincoln Navigators have been weaving through American neighborhoods in recent months, looking for foreclosures and other bargain properties to buy.

With housing prices crashing in the U.S., home-buying trips to America are becoming one of the more popular tour group packages in China. New U.S. visa rules for Chinese tourists and a loosening of foreign investment policies by China have made it easier for people such as Zhao Hongjun of Beijing to go house hunting across the Pacific.

The 48-year-old owner of a media company went on a two-week road trip through the U.S. last fall, visiting scenic sites and checking out properties from Los Angeles to New York. He's been following the swoon in prices ever since, and next month he's considering joining another prospecting group that is heading for San Francisco, Los Angeles and Las Vegas, three of the hardest-hit housing markets in the U.S.

Zhao's budget: $1 million.

"L.A. is not bad; a lot of Chinese live there," he said, noting that he was interested in both apartments and houses.

The tours are a new twist on an old phenomenon.

Overseas Chinese have been buying Southern California properties for years. What's different now is that they are starting to do it in large groups and quite openly.

"Before, it was kind of private, a quiet thing among friends," said Jamie Lee, a Chinese American who runs the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau office in Beijing. "Now it's full-blown. . . . It's huge." Some of these groups "are talking about going every two weeks."

Chinese home-buying missions in the U.S. are part of a broader trend of individuals and businesses in China seeking greater investment opportunities abroad. This week government and business officials from China's southern Guangdong province will arrive in Los Angeles to create a regional chamber office.

Certainly, a wave of Chinese bottom fishers won't end the housing woes in Southern California, where by some measures the median price has sunk more than 40% since the spring and summer of 2007.

But it could help rev up sales in some places, including the UC Riverside area and the San Gabriel Valley, home to large Chinese American communities and mentioned by some potential buyers as places of interest.

Ling Chow, president of the San Gabriel-based Chinese American Real Estate Professionals Assn., says brokers and agents welcome the mainland tours -- anything to shake the doldrums of the market crash.

But Chow, who mostly serves mainland Chinese buyers, is more skeptical about any new wave of Chinese home buyers making a significant imprint. Unless they're willing to spend more than $400,000, they'll probably be disappointed in the available homes. Chinese are culturally inclined to buy new homes and prefer high-achieving school districts, demands that drive up prices.

Chow said Chinese buyers' affinity for paying in cash will benefit them during the credit crunch. Many of her mainland clients have paid with cash, often for mansions and condos in Arcadia, where they can begin the immigration process or leave their college-age children to live alone.

The Chinese do have a lot of cash to spend. The central government holds the biggest stockpile of foreign reserves in the world, nearly $2 trillion, most of it in dollars. And the Boston Consulting Group estimates that there were more than 391,000 millionaire households in mainland China last year, up from 310,000 reported the previous year.

Still, Beijing has been cautious about outward investment, given the uncertainties of the financial crisis and heavy losses that its sovereign wealth fund has sustained buying stakes in American financial institutions such as investment bank Morgan Stanley. In addition, China's economic growth has slowed sharply in recent months as the nation's exporters have been hurt by slumping U.S. demand, and China's own real estate market has been sluggish.

But home prices in the U.S. have fallen more sharply than in China, and many Chinese consider the American market highly alluring as a place to invest and live because of the United States' developed economy.

The purchasing tours in the U.S. grew out of similar trips by well-heeled Chinese back home.

Investors from Wenzhou and other entrepreneurial hot spots were known for chartering buses to visit such cities as Shanghai to shop for apartments. Now some of them are signing up with outfits like Soufun.com, the real estate website that is sponsoring the home-buying trip next month from Beijing to California and Nevada.

Liu Jian, chief operating officer at Soufun Holdings, said his group's tour would focus on homes priced between $200,000 and $300,000, just at or below the median for Southern California. More than 300 people have registered for the trip, which could last 10 days and cost each person about $2,200, excluding airfare.

"Many of them want to buy because they have actual needs to live there or for their children," Liu said. "They will hold the property for quite a long period."

James Chou of Coldwell Banker George Realty in Alhambra said he was preparing for several groups from China early next year, totaling up to 200 people. His firm will provide hotels and tour buses.

Chou said the potential investors were keen to see foreclosed homes, but he warned that it would be difficult to educate them about the home-buying process in such a short time. He said they had little understanding of single-family houses, coming from a country where most people live in urban apartments.

"I don't think they know much about the market here," Chou said.

Lee, of the L.A. Convention and Visitors Bureau, has mixed feelings about these gou fang tuan, Chinese for home-buying groups. On one hand, she says, they will be staying and eating and shopping in Los Angeles, pumping dollars into the local economy.

On the other hand, Lee has been working hard in China to publicize the biggest attractions of Los Angeles: its great weather, beaches, Hollywood and theme parks.

"I'm promoting tourism to L.A., but not to go to buy cheap houses," she said. "Are we that desperate?"

Mei Xinyu is ambivalent for a different reason. As a researcher for China's Ministry of Commerce, Mei doesn't want to see a rush of Chinese buying homes in the U.S. and getting burned.

"The housing price right now in the U.S. is fairly low already, but it's hard to say how long it will remain in the valley," he said.

Chinese investors, Mei added, should be careful to study the markets before plunging into them. In some places, they could face a backlash, just as there was when the Japanese went on a shopping spree in the U.S. during the 1980s. What's more, he warned, some American cities may not bounce back at all.

"China is still in the process of urbanization. It's unlikely to turn into ghost towns," he said. "But the U.S. is different."

Yuan Lixin says his group's tour to the U.S. is meant to address precisely that concern -- to give visitors a deeper understanding of the real life of America over 14 days, before they buy into the real estate.

"What we sell is the culture, American culture," said Yuan, a planning department official at Beijing Youth, a newspaper enterprise that has organized group tours to the U.S. since late 2006.

The tours didn't start out as home-buying trips, but while driving across the continent in luxurious SUVs, people couldn't help but take notice of "For Sale" signs outside houses, including those that appeared to be empty, Yuan said.

"In many cases, members would stop the car and actively ask about the house situation," he said.

"Now because of the financial crisis, ordinary people in China also are starting to make large purchases in the U.S.," Yuan said. "In the past, people who traveled to the U.S. might carry back a large luggage with American goods. It's just that this time, what they bring back are [papers showing] hundreds of thousands of dollars of a house."

Lee and Pierson are Times staff writers.

[email protected]

[email protected]

Cao Jun in The Times' Shanghai bureau contributed to this report.

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pla101prc

Senior Member
To PLA, Engineer & all the others:

Why don't we point this arguments to a different direction.

What can happen if China were to have a free press to report economic crimes, corruption, etc and independent judicary to try these criminals including government officials?

well even if you have this so called independent judiciary and free press you cant realistically put every government official that had committed some kind of corruption in the past on trial. afterall the central government still needs all these ppl to govern the state. even if these officials are undoubtedly corrupted, they are nonetheless very competent individuals and have made great contributions to China's economic growth. some ppl would like to think that they have done nothing, but that is in fact not the case.
 

Engineer

Major
I disagree with you there. There are plenty of competant individuals around to replace those who have corrupted. The faster these competant individuals rise up the ranks, the better.

As to the original question, here are my thoughts.

Free media helps in that it can put more pressure on the government to remove corrupted local officals after a problem has surfaced. But don't expect the media to act like private investigators, because they aren't. At the end of the day, the thing that media cares the most is rating, because high rating means good money.

Independent judicary is a good thing, but again, judges are not investigators. Even after an independent judicary is established, you still need people to discover criminals, prosecute them and bring them into the court. It is so funny that someone would think that as soon as an independent judicary is established, all problems would be fixed.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
I disagree with you there. There are plenty of competant individuals around to replace those who have corrupted. The faster these competant individuals rise up the ranks, the better.

no that's in fact not true, yes there are always more than enough competent individuals, but even these ppl, when they go up the rank they'll become corrupted. i've seen too many of those. its not the individuals that are corrupted, its the system that is corrupted. if you are not corrupted you'll not get ANYTHING done. i spent three months in China last summer to look at its social structure and if there is one thing i learned it is that if you do things the canadian way you'll get nowhere (applies to driving in China too).

free media will and should always be complementary. they have no resources, no legal mandate, and no ethical incentive to fight corruption. free media alone will guaranteed to make things worse.

as for independent judiciary, it'll be cool to have it. but realistically the CCP wont allow it. and even if they do allow it, you cannot just suddenly put everyone on trial and have "clean" ppl to replace them. politics just doesnt work that way in China its kinda hard to explain but that's just the way it is.
 
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