US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread

[TerraN_EmpirE]

F-47's EMD prototype is planned to make its first flight in 2028.

The question for us, that has been ongoing for over a year now, is whether the J-36 and J-XDS they've flown from late 2024 onwards is their equivalent EMD prototypes, and the consensus is one of a likely yes.

So technically speaking "closer to each other in timelines" is true if one accepts that "within 3-4 years" is "close to each other in timelines".

I would lay money though that the F47 EMD is closer to a production prototype than the J36 and J-XDS. The U.S. does a lot of its early demonstration in the black. We have known for years something was brewing in the Navada desert and it wasn’t Klingon Blood wine. The F47 flying a prototype in 2028 would also work for full mission capability in the mid 2030s.

 

[Blitzo]

I would lay money though that the F47 EMD is closer to a production prototype than the J36 and J-XDS. The U.S. does a lot of its early demonstration in the black. We have known for years something was brewing in the Navada desert and it wasn’t Klingon Blood wine. The F47 flying a prototype in 2028 would also work for full mission capability in the mid 2030s.

I agree that F-47 flying in 2028 will be an EMD prototype.

But I'm wondering why you think J-36 and J-XDS are not. For the same reason that the US conducts secretive demonstrator testing in the black, surely you are aware that J-36 and J-XDS were also preceded by their own demonstrators that we were never aware of?

Putting it another way, the fact that we got open pictures and videos of J-36 and J-XDS should be an indication of how far they are along in their programs and not state driven demonstrators?

 

[manqiangrexue]

I would lay money though that the F47 EMD is closer to a production prototype than the J36 and J-XDS.

That's a real funny assumption. Kinda like looking at 2 identical eggs and saying you have a feeling yours is better. I'd "lay money" on the opposite and there's no way to know the answer definitively.

 

[mangchaocs]

I would lay money though that the F47 EMD is closer to a production prototype than the J36 and J-XDS. The U.S. does a lot of its early demonstration in the black. We have known for years something was brewing in the Navada desert and it wasn’t Klingon Blood wine. The F47 flying a prototype in 2028 would also work for full mission capability in the mid 2030s.

The first J-36 prototype is numbered 36011, not 36001. If you're familiar with the logic behind Chinese fighter numbering, you'll know what I'm getting at.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I would lay money though that the F47 EMD is closer to a production prototype than the J36 and J-XDS. The U.S. does a lot of its early demonstration in the black. We have known for years something was brewing in the Navada desert and it wasn’t Klingon Blood wine. The F47 flying a prototype in 2028 would also work for full mission capability in the mid 2030s.

And what makes you think that China hasn't done the same at Chengdu, Shenyang, Lop Nur and Malan, among others?

​

If anything, China's X-planes for their 6th-gen efforts have been flying as early as the mid/late-2010s. And that is yet to include all of the following (but not exhaustive) aircraft which can be rightfully considered as X-planes that were first seen (not first rolled out) in the early-2020s:




All of the above are the ones that we've seen, and do not yet include the ones that we haven't seen. So there's that.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

What I am getting at is the “secret sauce” of advanced modern combat aircraft. Building a stealthy airplane even a flying wing isn’t that difficult. It’s been done now multiple times in multiple countries. The First “Stealth fighter” the F117 remember lacked any radar, electronic warfare equipment, defense was built with off the shelf technology and its only means of survival was just being a hole in the sky.
It is the avionics. The mission systems. The radars, EW, attack capability and engines that are what makes a 5th generation fighter and it’s the next generation of those and MUMT that will likely make the 6th.
The Prototypes we have seen flown don’t showcase any of that at least on the surface J36 is probably the closest to reality yet it seems likely to be porting technology from J20 making it more a 5th gen than a 6th gen. It’s aim being more a long range Very heavy fighter kludging 3 existing engines to get a bigger bird.
Then we have what looks like a very slick aircraft but we don’t know what’s under the proverbial hood.

 

[valysre]

The Prototypes we have seen flown don’t showcase any of that at least on the surface

Not sure what kind of camera you have at home but I don't think you can see any of that 'on the surface' at all. Not much of a reason to consider this an argument against its existence.

 

[vincent]

What I am getting at is the “secret sauce” of advanced modern combat aircraft. Building a stealthy airplane even a flying wing isn’t that difficult. It’s been done now multiple times in multiple countries. The First “Stealth fighter” the F117 remember lacked any radar, electronic warfare equipment, defense was built with off the shelf technology and its only means of survival was just being a hole in the sky.
It is the avionics. The mission systems. The radars, EW, attack capability and engines that are what makes a 5th generation fighter and it’s the next generation of those and MUMT that will likely make the 6th.
The Prototypes we have seen flown don’t showcase any of that at least on the surface J36 is probably the closest to reality yet it seems likely to be porting technology from J20 making it more a 5th gen than a 6th gen. It’s aim being more a long range Very heavy fighter kludging 3 existing engines to get a bigger bird.
Then we have what looks like a very slick aircraft but we don’t know what’s under the proverbial hood.

Cope harder.

 

[Blitzo]

What I am getting at is the “secret sauce” of advanced modern combat aircraft. Building a stealthy airplane even a flying wing isn’t that difficult. It’s been done now multiple times in multiple countries. The First “Stealth fighter” the F117 remember lacked any radar, electronic warfare equipment, defense was built with off the shelf technology and its only means of survival was just being a hole in the sky.
It is the avionics. The mission systems. The radars, EW, attack capability and engines that are what makes a 5th generation fighter and it’s the next generation of those and MUMT that will likely make the 6th.
The Prototypes we have seen flown don’t showcase any of that at least on the surface J36 is probably the closest to reality yet it seems likely to be porting technology from J20 making it more a 5th gen than a 6th gen. It’s aim being more a long range Very heavy fighter kludging 3 existing engines to get a bigger bird.
Then we have what looks like a very slick aircraft but we don’t know what’s under the proverbial hood.

I agree with you that it is of course the avionics, mission systems, radars, EW and engines which determine an aircraft's capability and it is those systems for new aircraft that determine their status as EMD prototypes or technology demonstrators.

It is exactly because on both aircraft we have seen things reflective of those features (even with the poor quality images we have), such as of J-36's nose mounted EO sensors and side nose mounted RF panels, as well as J-XDS having a EOIRST/EOTS sensor

Come on you are a very reasonable user most of the time -- all of the things you are describing for meeting the expectation of a EMD prototype are things which we reasonably can observe on J-36 and J-XDS in context of the imagery quality.
When you then combine that with rollout pace of new airframes, the relative willingness to let them be exposed without keeping them secret (as one would expect for an earlier stage demonstrator), and the cumulative grapevine rumours, it's fairly hard to argue against the idea that they are EMD prototypes.


The faster that the status of the J-36 and J-XDS airframes can be accepted by everyone, the easier it will be to have discusssions about F-47 going forwards as well.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

What I am getting at is the “secret sauce” of advanced modern combat aircraft.

It is the avionics. The mission systems. The radars, EW, attack capability and engines that are what makes a 5th generation fighter and it’s the next generation of those and MUMT that will likely make the 6th.

The Prototypes we have seen flown don’t showcase any of that at least on the surface J36 is probably the closest to reality yet it seems likely to be porting technology from J20 making it more a 5th gen than a 6th gen. It’s aim being more a long range Very heavy fighter kludging 3 existing engines to get a bigger bird.

Then we have what looks like a very slick aircraft but we don’t know what’s under the proverbial hood.

One - Why are you trying to cope so hard that you are actually contradicting yourself within the same post?

Two - What makes you think that China's current 5th-gen fighters (J-20/A/S and J-35/A) cannot incorporate systems and capabilities that are both:
- At least one stage/level more advanced than those found on typical 5th-gens of today, AND
- Are fundamental/defining features for 6th-gen warplanes -
With themselves serving as technological demonstration/verification testbeds for the 6th-gens, before (and after) the J-36 and J-XDS/50 took their maiden flights in December 2024?

Three - Unlike the F-22 which is already out of production for 15 years by now, China is very much grinding the clock to produce the J-20 family in the triple digits today, with the J-35 family expected to reach similar production rates within the coming 10 years if needed be.

This means that in the subsequent stages of 6th-gen warplane developments, systems and capabilities that are considered as native to 6th-gen warplanes which are developed within this time frame can also be implemented/incorporated into newer 5th-gen airframes through continuous iterations and upgrades on the production line (at least to a certain degree), if not during their MLUs. Such iterations and upgrades can be visible from the exterior (e.g. J-20 to J-20A), hidden inside the airframe (e.g. between different production batches of the J-20), or both at the same time.

TL; DR - It works both ways. That's also why we have 4.5th-gen fighters.

Last but not least - Back in the 1990s, Chengdu AC actually took one of their J-7s and modified it to serve as a testing and evaluation platform for stealth technologies (yes, you heard that right). Hence, this particular J-7 unit can actually be considered as one of the X-planes for the J-20.




Yet, I certainly did not see anyone referring the J-20 as a 2nd/3rd-gen fighter instead of a 5th-gen fighter.

(Note: There is also reportedly a similar effort undertaken by Shenyang AC on one of their J-8s (though I didn't manage to find related photos).)

So may I suggest that you get real?