US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread

[jospence]

Not to worry, the new line will be that because the F-47 came out later, its technology is more mature and is therefor still superior to all other aircraft.

 

[douglaxd]

With first flight of the EMD prototype being 2028 I don't see what the surprise is here.

 

[Deino]

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Really funny! And even if I don't want to stick my neck out too far – and YES, this timeline is realistic, anything else would be wishful thinking – but, then the US wouldn't be ahead of China anymore, because by the mid-2030s both the CAC J-36 and the SAC J-XDS will most likely already be in service.

Again, I don't want to bet, but by 2030 at the latest – probably sooner – I expect with almost absolute certainty that the first pre-serial/LRIP machines will have been delivered and are in PLAAF service by one of the FTTB brigades. "Until Mid-2030s" is surely no problem.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Really funny! And even if I don't want to stick my neck out too far – and YES, this timeline is realistic, anything else would be wishful thinking – but, then the US wouldn't be ahead of China anymore, because by the mid-2030s both the CAC J-36 and the SAC J-XDS will most likely already be in service.

Again, I don't want to bet, but by 2030 at the latest – probably sooner – I expect with almost absolute certainty that the first pre-serial/LRIP machines will have been delivered and are in PLAAF service by one of the FTTB brigades. "Until Mid-2030s" is surely no problem.

With the flight testing and evaluation progress of the J-36 and J-XDS/50 that we've seen thus far, it's not just that both the J-36 and J-XDS/50 would be in active service by then, but also the very realistic possibility that both the J-36 and J-XDS/50 would have undergone some degree of iterations and upgrades by then. Such iterations and upgrades can be visible (e.g. J-20 to J-20A), invisible (e.g. between different production batches of the J-20), or both.

 

[anzha]

Again, I don't want to bet, but by 2030 at the latest – probably sooner – I expect with almost absolute certainty that the first pre-serial/LRIP machines will have been delivered and are in PLAAF service by one of the FTTB brigades. "Until Mid-2030s" is surely no problem.

Why not bet? BOEING is running the program. Even with the risk reduction, it's...Boeing.

 

[valysre]

With the flight testing and evaluation progress of the J-36 and J-XDS/50 that we've seen thus far, it's not just that both the J-36 and J-XDS/50 would be in active service by then, but also the very realistic possibility that both the J-36 and J-XDS/50 would have undergone some degree of iterations and upgrades by then. Such iterations and upgrades can be visible (e.g. J-20 to J-20A), invisible (e.g. between different production batches of the J-20), or both.

One can pray for the intended (presumably some ACE/VCE type) engine to be installed earlier than with the J-20, perhaps as an early iteration or upgrade.

Are there any noises on the American high-end CCA? Or did they definitively kill that idea with their stupid "phase1/phase2" program a year or two ago?

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Really funny! And even if I don't want to stick my neck out too far – and YES, this timeline is realistic, anything else would be wishful thinking – but, then the US wouldn't be ahead of China anymore, because by the mid-2030s both the CAC J-36 and the SAC J-XDS will most likely already be in service.

Again, I don't want to bet, but by 2030 at the latest – probably sooner – I expect with almost absolute certainty that the first pre-serial/LRIP machines will have been delivered and are in PLAAF service by one of the FTTB brigades. "Until Mid-2030s" is surely no problem.

Ther is in service and mission ready. Both F47 and the Chinese programs are probably going to be closer to each other in timelines than anything else. The aircraft that have flown are likely nothing close to a combat capability and closer to demonstration aircraft.
The J20 is still in production and F22 is getting a major overhaul with Raptor 2.0 just entering launch. It takes years to transition an aircraft from blueprints to production to delivery. It takes years to turn pilots from transition to a new type to combat ready and especially in operational numbers.

 

[Blitzo]

Ther is in service and mission ready. Both F47 and the Chinese programs are probably going to be closer to each other in timelines than anything else. The aircraft that have flown are likely nothing close to a combat capability and closer to demonstration aircraft.
The J20 is still in production and F22 is getting a major overhaul with Raptor 2.0 just entering launch. It takes years to transition an aircraft from blueprints to production to delivery. It takes years to turn pilots from transition to a new type to combat ready and especially in operational numbers.

F-47's EMD prototype is planned to make its first flight in 2028.

The question for us, that has been ongoing for over a year now, is whether the J-36 and J-XDS they've flown from late 2024 onwards is their equivalent EMD prototypes, and the consensus is one of a likely yes.

So technically speaking "closer to each other in timelines" is true if one accepts that "within 3-4 years" is "close to each other in timelines".

 

[douglaxd]

The question for us, that has been ongoing for over a year now, is whether the J-36 and J-XDS they've flown from late 2024 onwards is their equivalent EMD prototypes, and the consensus is one of a likely yes.

Sorry, how do we know this?

 

[Blitzo]

Sorry, how do we know this?

How do we know... that the consensus is likely yes? It's based on the various discussions this forum has had on the matter over the year, inclusive of their external appearances and details, sizes, airframe emergence rate, as well as the rumour grapevine.
As well as the fact that we know they've flown various smaller scale technology demonstrators in past years prior to this.


If you're asking for definitive confirmation, then we do not know that in the same way we do not have confirmation of most things PLA related.