Ukrainian War Developments

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Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
So its happening?!?!
No. From what I've seen, some units are indeed retreating to their permanent locations, but most units still remain in training camps a little farther from the Ukrainian border, but the pace of tactical exercises near the Ukrainian border really it's still very big.

But for now, nothing indicates that the invasion will really start. Russia has always carried out these tactical exercises close to Ukrainian territory and intensified even more after 2014, with a certain and partial amount of troops currently being deployed.

It still remains to find out the exercises in Belarus that end on February 20th. I've seen that some field hospitals have already been deactivated. The approximate number of Russian troops in Belarus is somewhere close to or above 30,000 troops, most being deployed from the central and eastern district of Russia. These are troops that were deployed to Belarus with the intention of preparing in advance for the biggest strategic exercise of the year - the Vostok-22.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The more ‘on the ground’ videos posted to western social media (Twitter/FB,YT, Reddit etc) of Russian military movements to or around the boarder, the less likely there is going to be real action.

I will sit up and take notice when the videos suddenly stop.

Unless that happens, just break out the popcorn and enjoy the show, because that’s all this is. For now at least.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
The more ‘on the ground’ videos posted to western social media (Twitter/FB,YT, Reddit etc) of Russian military movements to or around the boarder, the less likely there is going to be real action.

I will sit up and take notice when the videos suddenly stop.

Unless that happens, just break out the popcorn and enjoy the show, because that’s all this is. For now at least.
I will only fall into this invasion narrative when Russia deploys large numbers of trucks near the Ukrainian border, for now we are only envisioning large artillery units, tanks and armored vehicles. Unless massive amounts of trucks are deployed for logistical support and ammunition around the BTGs, any invasion narrative will be false.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
This here is very funny:

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The Guardian: British intelligence officials estimate that a further 14 Russian tactical battalions are moving close to Ukraine, each battalion around 800 soldiers, in addition to the 100 battalions (BTGs) already concentrated on the Ukrainian borders.

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Zaluzhny: We are recording Russian troop movement on the border, but not an increase.

The Armed Forces Command is constantly recording the movement of Russian troops along the border, but there is no evidence that their numbers continue to increase.

Another source:

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"We have seen their maximum number, which is constantly on the move. They are moving, moving from the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea to Belarus. We are recording their movement, but to say that now there has been a radical increase, I cannot," he said Zaluzhny.

Another on the same line:

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An analysis of the actions of Russia, which continues to deploy troops close to the Ukrainian border, shows that it is more a matter of psychological pressure than preparation for an offensive.
 

Suetham

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"Not enough for a full-scale invasion": Arahamiya said how many troops the Russian Federation has drawn to the border with Ukraine

Last year, Russia drew 220,000 troops to the Ukrainian border.

Servant of the People faction leader David Arahamiya said up to 127,000 Russian military personnel are currently on the border with Ukraine. That, he said, was not enough for a possible new full-scale Russian invasion.

The popular deputy said this after a meeting of the faction in the Presidency of the Republic on February 14.

The leader of the "Servants of the People" said that, according to information from the intelligence and intelligence services, there are 127,000 Russian military personnel on the border, while in 2020 there were 220,000.

"... In 2020, there were 220,000 Russian soldiers and equipment, etc. And now, when they say there will be an invasion tomorrow, 127,000. That's not enough to carry out large-scale actions. So I want everyone to calm down and live a normal life. That doesn't mean there is no threat, but at the moment there is no threat level that they are trying to show us in any way," Arahamiya told Pavlovsky News.

He also added that today the people's deputies did not discuss the Minsk accords with the president. But he assured that Ukraine did not plan to withdraw from the Minsk accords.

At the same time, according to him, Ukraine's position remains unchanged - first the Armed Forces must establish full control on the border and "then make political components".

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Arahamiya explained why Russia will not attack Ukraine tomorrow

At the same time, Arahamiya emphasizes that there is no certainty that Russia will not be able to concentrate in a few months.

The leader of the Servant of the People faction, David Arahamiya, explained why he considers a new Russian attack on Ukraine to be impossible in the coming days.

He explained that when there was also an escalation last year, 220,000 Russian troops and equipment were concentrated on Ukraine's borders. According to him, this contingent is theoretically enough to carry out a large-scale attack on Ukraine. There are currently far fewer Russian troops on the borders - just over 120,000.

"Almost twice less than then. But from an information point of view (warfare. - Ed.) It looks like tomorrow will be an attack. Even theoretically, as the military explained to us, a large-scale attack is now impossible. means that in a month or two they won't be able to concentrate," Arahamiya said.

In addition, the people's deputy added that the second factor is weather conditions.

"Heating. There is information that dozens of tanks are already stuck in the swamps - and they just have big problems, even during training, how to get equipment", - said David Arahamiya.

And the third factor why, according to Arahamiya, a full-scale attack by the Russian Federation is now impossible is the fact that intelligence does not see the direct training of the Russians in terms of coordination.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
If Ukraine survives this (doubtful), it should export its copium. It's got some strong stuff, I have never seen such denial of reality in my life. It's like the ostrich buried his head all the way down to the center of the Earth.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
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"Not enough for a full-scale invasion": Arahamiya said how many troops the Russian Federation has drawn to the border with Ukraine

Last year, Russia drew 220,000 troops to the Ukrainian border.

Servant of the People faction leader David Arahamiya said up to 127,000 Russian military personnel are currently on the border with Ukraine. That, he said, was not enough for a possible new full-scale Russian invasion.

The popular deputy said this after a meeting of the faction in the Presidency of the Republic on February 14.

The leader of the "Servants of the People" said that, according to information from the intelligence and intelligence services, there are 127,000 Russian military personnel on the border, while in 2020 there were 220,000.

"... In 2020, there were 220,000 Russian soldiers and equipment, etc. And now, when they say there will be an invasion tomorrow, 127,000. That's not enough to carry out large-scale actions. So I want everyone to calm down and live a normal life. That doesn't mean there is no threat, but at the moment there is no threat level that they are trying to show us in any way," Arahamiya told Pavlovsky News.

He also added that today the people's deputies did not discuss the Minsk accords with the president. But he assured that Ukraine did not plan to withdraw from the Minsk accords.

At the same time, according to him, Ukraine's position remains unchanged - first the Armed Forces must establish full control on the border and "then make political components".

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Arahamiya explained why Russia will not attack Ukraine tomorrow

At the same time, Arahamiya emphasizes that there is no certainty that Russia will not be able to concentrate in a few months.

The leader of the Servant of the People faction, David Arahamiya, explained why he considers a new Russian attack on Ukraine to be impossible in the coming days.

He explained that when there was also an escalation last year, 220,000 Russian troops and equipment were concentrated on Ukraine's borders. According to him, this contingent is theoretically enough to carry out a large-scale attack on Ukraine. There are currently far fewer Russian troops on the borders - just over 120,000.

"Almost twice less than then. But from an information point of view (warfare. - Ed.) It looks like tomorrow will be an attack. Even theoretically, as the military explained to us, a large-scale attack is now impossible. means that in a month or two they won't be able to concentrate," Arahamiya said.

In addition, the people's deputy added that the second factor is weather conditions.

"Heating. There is information that dozens of tanks are already stuck in the swamps - and they just have big problems, even during training, how to get equipment", - said David Arahamiya.

And the third factor why, according to Arahamiya, a full-scale attack by the Russian Federation is now impossible is the fact that intelligence does not see the direct training of the Russians in terms of coordination.
In the case of a limited objective would they need that many for a full scale invasion?

Like if it specifically the Eastern part of Ukraine and the costal region would they need as many.
 
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