Ukrainian War Developments

taxiya said:

Regarding the moves between US/NATO and Russia over Ukraine, I see quite some similarities to Taiwan straight crisis in the 1990s.

• US invite and encourage Ukraine to join NATO. Taiwan want to move more to official independence.
• Russia put possible invasion on the table without saying when and under what circumstance. PRC made it clear that military solution is an option without saying when.
• US make no promise of US boot on the ground now, nor a promise to accept Ukraine into NATO in the future. US does not make promise to come to the aid to Taiwan in case of invasion even there is the domestic law.
• Russia makes the military demonstration. China did the missile exercise.
• US moves in troops around Ukraine. US sailed CV through Taiwan straight.
• Taiwan did not make official independence. Let's see if and when Ukraine will apply for NATO membership.

Regarding who is winning. I think both sides can claim winning and not backing down from their demand.

• China never said it would invade Taiwan during the crisis. It couldn't be seen as back down from a position it never took.
• Russia never said of invasion. There is no position for Russia to back down from.
• US never said it will defend Ukraine. It can not back down from a position it never take.
• Taiwan might have taken further materialistic steps for independence if PRC did not show the force. And Taiwan did not take those possible steps since. So China reached its objective to prevent Taiwan's further move.
• It is almost certain that Ukraine would have or will soon apply for NATO membership if it is not because of Russia's forceful demonstration.
• Will Ukraine and US continue to push for their luck? We have to wait and see.
• The Russian objective is to prevent Ukraine joining NATO. Until that day (if it ever happens) Russian objective is attained.

The western media will claim a win forcing Russia back down from an invasion that requires a US first move which the US has decided not to take. It is a perfect circling trick to win everything by not winning anything.

To me, it is just a rehearse of what US administration has been doing since Obama's red line in the sand, to Trump's win in the trade war.

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Yes, once invasion actually happens, all sides lose. For that reason, I never thought an invasion was likely. The U.S. loses because we would be forced into a sanction that also damages our currency. Also in the longer term, the Europeans will find ways to distance from the U.S. due to the devastating impact the sanctions have on their economy. The Europeans lose due to the damages to their economy and a potential refugee situation. The Russians lose due to the sanctions and the lost of Nordstream II sales. The Ukrainians lose due to the wars, potentially taking out the current government.
Everyone will just dance to the precipice and stop.

Today, RussianArmy deployed bridging equipment from Kursk toward the areas near the Northern borders of Ukraine. You can see here PPS-84 floating brigdes & PP-91 pontoon bridges here. They can be used in any incoming offensive for occupation of Poltava.

This video recorded today shows a Kasta-2E2 low-altitude mobile surveillance radar system of #Russian Aerospace Force at Belgorod just 13km away from the border with Ukraine today. That radar helps short & medium range SAM systems such as Tor & Buk deal with cruise missiles.

Wondering how the life of Russian Army troops at the fronts of the possible incoming war with Ukraine looks like? Here is inside one of their tents in Kursk district today.

As the Russian Military Forces have moved into their attack positions next to the borders of Ukraine, a USAF's RC-135V Rivet Joint ELINT aircraft with 63-9792 serial number flying over Black Sea is monitoring them now.


As a show of force to Russia which is about to invade Ukrane, USAF's 69th BS simulated cruise missile strike at Russian bases in Syria this morning. They used a pair of B-52H bombers (61-0018 & 61-0039). Israel Air Force escorted them using an F-15A (696) & an F-15C (519).

Russia Army prepares for Nuclear war! Today, a group of RPM-2 radioactive reconnaissance and patrol vehicles (BTR-80 chassis) were spotted on a train in Bryansk on their ways toward the fronts of the incoming war with Ukraine.

Map at @Cen4infoRes showing the movements of Russian military forces along Ukraines borders now has 250+ pieces of geolocated & verified footage:

Suetham said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1493268544120832001

The US Air Force's reconnaissance drone, Global Hawk, has made a long route over Ukraine in recent hours, passing close to the Belarusian border to the north and east to the Russian border.

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FORTE12 returning back home after(Sigonella AB) a +23h mission over Ukraine. Note the continuous MLAT coverage by flightradar24, no dotted line .

So its happening?!?!

Graphic by the WSJ shows just how far some of the Russian forces massed at Ukraine's border have travelled.


And a sobering look at the range of Russia's Iskander missile brigades, which have the capacity to fire more than 400 missiles in an hour and reach 95 percent of Ukraine's territory.