Ukrainian War Developments

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Germany sending further military aid to Ukraine, this time in the form of... 9K32 Strela-2 and 9K38 Igla

Atomicfrog said:

Look like they will be pushing way farther than the Dnieper river, getting the south to cut maritime access bu it look like they want both banks of the river, they want to get all hydroelectric plants and control water supply ? I don't see them getting the west without enormous sacrifice. They are getting supply out there.

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An American general came on TV and said pretty confidently that the Russians were only really interested in Ukraine east of the Dniper. I wonder if that turns out to be true.

On the other hand, I don't see how Russia can reasonably claim to have "denazified" Ukraine without controlling Kiev or Lviv. The plan could be to take the east and then play it by the ear depending on how much resistance they face.

The hardest resistance has been on the eastern front against the most experienced Ukrainian soldiers. Very little resistance to zero difficulties around Kiev. The population in the west may be the most anti Russian but the military resistance seems to be lacking, e.g. Chernobyl.

It may also explain why Russia has had unusually high logistical related losses. They expected to overrun the east and fight heavily and slowly towards Kiev, so most of their engineering corps and supplies were deployed on the eastern front.

Instead the exact opposite happened. Slow advances on the east against a dogged army and lightening fast advance to Kiev within 1-2 days.

I wonder if it would have been better for the Ukrainian army to have withdrew from the eastern regions and fought from defensive positions somewhere around the Dnieper river. With their current strategy by the Russian army reach the Dnieper, the best Ukrainian soldiers will be dead or captured. It'll be the instagram thots, warrior-politicians and molotov babuskas defending the rest of the country. This war has had a lot of surprises so you never know...

EU is pushing China to broker a ceasefire. Encouraged that China abstained from the UN vote instead of putting a veto.
However they are frustrated that China hasn't used the word "invasion" as of now.

I think we might need to pay attention if any "evolution" towards more military-oriented terminology comes from China. China obviously won't call it an invasion, but they might find a middle ground once again.

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There is also a remarkable effort to push China to "betray" Russia and take a clear stance against this. Its really unfortunate that EU doesn't have any high quality diplomat to realise why this won't and can't happen

First a general note. People, please, we just got the thread reopened. PLEASE, don't post one-liners or just links from tweets. We were warned by the great and terrible mods about what would happen.

getready said:

Wait, so after first round talks failed when Ukraine rejected the terms, Russia increased their demands? I recall the three conditions they stated before didn't include taking all Ukraine.

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The French say the demands have increased. I would caution a little on taking the story at its face until after we have another source. I am not calling them liars, but the spin we have seen online from all sides could make the Liaoning into a Hollywoodesque helicarrier.

I'd like to hear what the Russians have to say. Not that I entirely believe them either.

getready said:

Wait, so after first round talks failed when Ukraine rejected the terms, Russia increased their demands? I recall the three conditions they stated before didn't include taking all Ukraine.

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From what I'm seeing they had every reason to increase demands. The harder you fight, the tougher it'll be.

At this stage talks should no longer be on terms of surrender but clarification whether the new Ukrainian policy that uniformed Russian soldiers will no longer be taken prisoner represents a withdrawal from the Geneva Convention.

anzha said:

On a personal note, we have extracted the family from Ukraine. They are in Europe now and we are trying to get them away from the border region. In all the darkness, there is a minute ray of relief for me. They lost everything, again, in a decade, but they are and will live.

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I’m sorry to hear of your family’s losses in this war, but I’m glad that they’re alive and healthy and that you’ve had some relief in all of this.

Hendrik_2000 said:

I am glad that your family is safe and sound

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Thank you. I appreciate that. I really appreciate that. I feared the worst.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Hope solution can be found and this carnage will end. People need to compromise and set aside past grudges. There is no right or wrong in conflict but reality on the ground. Ukraine should accept reality and Russia should end this war.

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I am going to say something that will not be popular: Ukraine will have to be utterly crushed to give up. I am sure that will come (91% sure at least). Even then, we will see partisans for years. This will be long, bloody and vicious. As determined as the Russians are, the Ukrainians are just as much.

There is no easy out. There will be no acceptance. This isn't a Disney fairy tale. This is Ukrainian and those almost never have happy endings from my experience.

I could also be wrong. I have been before and will be again.

Normally I don't like reddit as a source and neither this specific Twitter account, but I will make an exception today because they offer a view of Ukraine from another perspective, of commodity producer

Ukraine is one of the largest commodity producers, and most of the resources are in East Ukraine. Acquiring all these resources would significantly strengthen Russia's position as a raw material/minerals producer/exporter.

anzha said:

*CHORTLE*

The Russian invasion would not be welcomed probably at all now, even if the Russians were rich and the West poor. The events of 2014 pulled together Ukraine as being antirussian. There was a narrative in the Right Bank that Russia was an evil oppressor. This was prior to even 2014. It was not accepted Ukrainewide. After the events of 2014, it has. A lot of people don't appreciate how much of a feeling of a backstab Ukrainians had over the Donbas and Crimea. The feel of it is very much Cain and Abel, if you are familiar, whether it is right or wrong.

That said, a world where the West was poor and Russia rich would have had Ukraine wanting to join Russian based institutions, trade blocks, etc. I doubt Russia would have invaded at all then. it's a wildly different world than our own. It would be fun to think about how it came about in an alternate history sort of way, but not what we have today.

On a personal note, we have extracted the family from Ukraine. They are in Europe now and we are trying to get them away from the border region. In all the darkness, there is a minute ray of relief for me. They lost everything, again, in a decade, but they are and will live.

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If Ukrainians feel backstabbed by Russia invading them in 2014, I wonder how they're going to take the MUCH biggest backstab that I expect is being prepared by NATO.