Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Here we are, once again! It's time for my assessment of progress in the war in Ukraine. This is PURELY my opinion. There will be some conjecture tossed in because I think some bits that have not made sense are starting to fit into place. Or not. I could be wrong. I have been wrong before and will be again. As always, this post is worth as much as you paid for it and if you actually paid anything for it, you were ripped off!
This is day *5* of the war!
That said, without further ado, here we go:
1. Russian continues to win! Don't let your hopes, your biases, your dreams, or the charm of those involve convince you otherwise. The Russian army continues to slog forth and conquer. Ukraine is going to get itself crushed. Perhaps not today. Perhaps not tomorrow. However, unless something spectacular happens, Russia's got this.
2. However, Russia's expectations to date do not match the reality. Talk of 72 hours or even 96 hours, whelp, that totally didn't happen. The way Russia fought the war makes little sense if they thought it was going to have any serious opposition. I got poked fun at much earlier about the Russian analyst who warned of this before the war's start. Looks like he was right.
3. Russia has semi paused what they were doing today. The assaults on Kiev have stopped except at Bucha (again). Their army appears to have not come close to encircling Kiev after all. The real progress seems to be going in the south towards Mariupol. It is surrounded. The DNR forces are pushing forward and have either linked up or are within a day of doing so.
4. There's been no real noise of thrusts west towards Odesa. That's interesting. We kept hearing about something far more west, but...zip. nada. zilch.
5. The kessel seems to be closing on the eastern Ukrainians forces. Or so we keep hearing. There was a counterattack at Tokmak by Ukrainians. But...not much else. There's a distinct lack of info being uploaded to twitter, etc. from towns and villages between the pincers. I also find that interesting.
6. We are starting to see more impressive aircraft show up to the party: Su-35s, for example. Finally. There are hints of Russian drones, but not like the Ukrainians, yet. The drone salesmen are probably just letting the Russians try before they buy here. Still, RuAF, I am totally disappointed in you. You're making a bad, bad boogie man.
7. We are hearing less Ukrainian birds in the air or strikes on the ground. The Russians have declared air supremacy. The US claimed the air was disputed, but the lack of video strongly suggests otherwise. The Ukrainian fighters were diving straight in before. Where are they now if they are not dead? Well, besides the ones ferrying the Mikoyans from Poland.
8. Russian tactics have also changed. The probing Leroy Jenkins style attacks seem to have ceased. There is an enormous buildup just north of Kiev. There is a helluva Some descriptions put it longer than 64 km. The bunching up of that massive convoy suggests the Ukrainian air force is not in good shape as well. The implication also is the buildup is going to be a massive offensive. The Russians are shipping in more forces via train. Again, those changing tactics.
9. A major assault has begun on Kherson. I erroneously thought the RUssians had already taken it. I was wrong. Well, perhaps as I write. We will see in a few hours.
10. Despite the LNR & DNR advances from the East, the Ukrainians are attacking Gorlovka with artillery and even shelled Donestk today. The DNR and LNR advances except along the coast, do not sound like they have made much progress.
11. Weirdness in this war does continue. Another tractor made off with an air defense track today. Lots of abandoned equipment is being found. Sometimes with AKs and vests and helmets inside. Sometimes fully fueled and working fine. Sometimes units larger than companies. I have very little confidence this is due to mechanical problems and the units need to go fast. Too much of the equipment is just fine. I find it weird rather than can draw a lot of conclusions.
12. It still appears the Russians are having logistical issues. The slow down may allow them to address it.
13. One more WTFism is Belarus. There are videos of dug in troops around Brest. Yes, there is a large column sitting there, but far, far more troops in prepared positions. I guess they are scared of the advancing Cossacks?
14. Another one is the Iskandr. Its CEP blows. It needs nukes to actually guarantee a kill.
15. Ukraine continues to shape the propaganda war. However, they are getting caught in some stupid lies. I mean, c'mon. You've won this part. Just keep fighting and the plucky underdog bit will play well with the West.
16. That said! I have my suspicions about why Russia has not been shaping the narrative online more. We know they can do it. They mess with other countries online all the time. Why not here? it makes little sense at first blush. Except...the DNR when it started pushing forward started cranking out decent images and videos. If we assume the pretext was supposed to be to protect the DNR and LNR, then they should be the ones who are seen online and with all the imagery. NOT the Russian forces! It suddenly makes a whole lot more sense. The narrative was prepped and ready and like all great plans...did not survive contact with the enemy. To *ME* this all clicks into place as to what we've seen.
17. Unfortunately for the Russians, there are consequences for not shaping the narrative online successfully. The West has united far, far more than any time since 9/11. The amount of weaponry coming in from Europe and the US is huge and getting massive.
18. With all the assets frozen, if those are outright seized, this will be a massive financial loss for the Russians. 40% of the wealth of the state, plus who knows how much from the oligarchs. That's going to hurt and far more than when the Russians retaliate.
19. Ukraine still stands. Kharkov, Mariupol, Kiev stand. Ukrainians are fighting on. It's hard not to admire them a great deal. Even if they are doomed in the fight.
20. That said, the end game for Russia is starting to be very questionable. Putin is welding together a lot of Ukrainians. He did this some before my own eyes in 2014. Now there is most definitely a fiercely defiant nation of Ukrainians, whether they are Russian or Ukrainian.
I give Ukraine a solid 7% chance of 'winning.' It all depends on the massive push into the cities the Russians have coming up. If they fail, those numbers will start climbing fast.
The Russians are winning. The Ukrainians are fighting, screaming defiance at the Bear.
This is Moscow's war to lose. Always has been. They might be trying harder to actually win now. Time will tell.
This is day *5* of the war!
That said, without further ado, here we go:
1. Russian continues to win! Don't let your hopes, your biases, your dreams, or the charm of those involve convince you otherwise. The Russian army continues to slog forth and conquer. Ukraine is going to get itself crushed. Perhaps not today. Perhaps not tomorrow. However, unless something spectacular happens, Russia's got this.
2. However, Russia's expectations to date do not match the reality. Talk of 72 hours or even 96 hours, whelp, that totally didn't happen. The way Russia fought the war makes little sense if they thought it was going to have any serious opposition. I got poked fun at much earlier about the Russian analyst who warned of this before the war's start. Looks like he was right.
3. Russia has semi paused what they were doing today. The assaults on Kiev have stopped except at Bucha (again). Their army appears to have not come close to encircling Kiev after all. The real progress seems to be going in the south towards Mariupol. It is surrounded. The DNR forces are pushing forward and have either linked up or are within a day of doing so.
4. There's been no real noise of thrusts west towards Odesa. That's interesting. We kept hearing about something far more west, but...zip. nada. zilch.
5. The kessel seems to be closing on the eastern Ukrainians forces. Or so we keep hearing. There was a counterattack at Tokmak by Ukrainians. But...not much else. There's a distinct lack of info being uploaded to twitter, etc. from towns and villages between the pincers. I also find that interesting.
6. We are starting to see more impressive aircraft show up to the party: Su-35s, for example. Finally. There are hints of Russian drones, but not like the Ukrainians, yet. The drone salesmen are probably just letting the Russians try before they buy here. Still, RuAF, I am totally disappointed in you. You're making a bad, bad boogie man.
7. We are hearing less Ukrainian birds in the air or strikes on the ground. The Russians have declared air supremacy. The US claimed the air was disputed, but the lack of video strongly suggests otherwise. The Ukrainian fighters were diving straight in before. Where are they now if they are not dead? Well, besides the ones ferrying the Mikoyans from Poland.
8. Russian tactics have also changed. The probing Leroy Jenkins style attacks seem to have ceased. There is an enormous buildup just north of Kiev. There is a helluva Some descriptions put it longer than 64 km. The bunching up of that massive convoy suggests the Ukrainian air force is not in good shape as well. The implication also is the buildup is going to be a massive offensive. The Russians are shipping in more forces via train. Again, those changing tactics.
9. A major assault has begun on Kherson. I erroneously thought the RUssians had already taken it. I was wrong. Well, perhaps as I write. We will see in a few hours.
10. Despite the LNR & DNR advances from the East, the Ukrainians are attacking Gorlovka with artillery and even shelled Donestk today. The DNR and LNR advances except along the coast, do not sound like they have made much progress.
11. Weirdness in this war does continue. Another tractor made off with an air defense track today. Lots of abandoned equipment is being found. Sometimes with AKs and vests and helmets inside. Sometimes fully fueled and working fine. Sometimes units larger than companies. I have very little confidence this is due to mechanical problems and the units need to go fast. Too much of the equipment is just fine. I find it weird rather than can draw a lot of conclusions.
12. It still appears the Russians are having logistical issues. The slow down may allow them to address it.
13. One more WTFism is Belarus. There are videos of dug in troops around Brest. Yes, there is a large column sitting there, but far, far more troops in prepared positions. I guess they are scared of the advancing Cossacks?
14. Another one is the Iskandr. Its CEP blows. It needs nukes to actually guarantee a kill.
15. Ukraine continues to shape the propaganda war. However, they are getting caught in some stupid lies. I mean, c'mon. You've won this part. Just keep fighting and the plucky underdog bit will play well with the West.
16. That said! I have my suspicions about why Russia has not been shaping the narrative online more. We know they can do it. They mess with other countries online all the time. Why not here? it makes little sense at first blush. Except...the DNR when it started pushing forward started cranking out decent images and videos. If we assume the pretext was supposed to be to protect the DNR and LNR, then they should be the ones who are seen online and with all the imagery. NOT the Russian forces! It suddenly makes a whole lot more sense. The narrative was prepped and ready and like all great plans...did not survive contact with the enemy. To *ME* this all clicks into place as to what we've seen.
17. Unfortunately for the Russians, there are consequences for not shaping the narrative online successfully. The West has united far, far more than any time since 9/11. The amount of weaponry coming in from Europe and the US is huge and getting massive.
18. With all the assets frozen, if those are outright seized, this will be a massive financial loss for the Russians. 40% of the wealth of the state, plus who knows how much from the oligarchs. That's going to hurt and far more than when the Russians retaliate.
19. Ukraine still stands. Kharkov, Mariupol, Kiev stand. Ukrainians are fighting on. It's hard not to admire them a great deal. Even if they are doomed in the fight.
20. That said, the end game for Russia is starting to be very questionable. Putin is welding together a lot of Ukrainians. He did this some before my own eyes in 2014. Now there is most definitely a fiercely defiant nation of Ukrainians, whether they are Russian or Ukrainian.
I give Ukraine a solid 7% chance of 'winning.' It all depends on the massive push into the cities the Russians have coming up. If they fail, those numbers will start climbing fast.
The Russians are winning. The Ukrainians are fighting, screaming defiance at the Bear.
This is Moscow's war to lose. Always has been. They might be trying harder to actually win now. Time will tell.
Equation
Lieutenant General
It basically sucks the air around it during detonation to heat it up to high temperature and send out an explosion that is far more intense than conventional bombs. It can basically vaporize the entire human body to dust.
WILDLY OFF TOPIC! You have some good points. Don't fault into the fate of the drone salesman!
I’m still callin’ it for Ukraine!
I miss him!
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