I've been thinking about the reasons behind the ongoing psy-op staged by American and British governments and I have since developed a hypothetis:
(a) It
is not caused by threat of imminent Russian attack.
While the possibility always remains for obvious reason Russian forces began the buildup in March 2021 when it became evident that there will be no legal challenge to Biden's presidency. Personally I view it as two things: (1) pro-active deterrence against any change in Ukrainian policy and (2) a convenient distraction from Belarus.
(b) It
is not caused by an attempt by the US to provoke an attack from Russia.
This line of reasoning is entirely faulty because the only thing that Russia needs to do to defeat such provocation is to do nothing. Ukraine would have to conduct an offensive against the separatist republics which Russia could easily allow to develop until it would become obvious that it was a provocation and only then step in.
(c) It
is an attack by the US and UK against current government of Denys Shmyhal under the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky.
To establish motive let's revise cabinet composition after the overthrow of Yanukovych:
- First Yatsenuk government - 27 Feb 2014-27 Nov 2014: Fatherland/Yatsenuk - 6, Svoboda/ultranationalists - 3, independents -9
Parliamentary election - 21 Oct 2014 - 450 seats, mixed proportional and single-mandate:
Petro Poroshenko's bloc - 132, People's Front/Yatsenuk - 82, Self-Reliance - 32, Opposition/Russian - 27, Radical/Lyashko -22, Fatherland/Timoshenko - 19, Svoboda - 6, Indpendents -96, others -4
- Second Yatsenuk government - 2 Dec 2014-14 Apr 2016: People's Front - 5, Proshenko's bloc and nominations -11, Fatherland - 2, Self-Reliance -1, Radical/Lyashko -1.
- Groysman government - 14 Apr 2016-29 Aug 2019: Proshenko's bloc and nominations - 17, People's Front - 7, independent -1
Parliamentary election - 21 Jul 2019 - 450 seats, mixed proportional and single-mandate:
Sluha Narodu/Zelensky - 254, Opposition/Russian - 43, Fatherland/Timoshenko - 26, Solidarity/Poroshenko - 25, Holos/Vakarchuk - 20, Independents - 37, others - 19
- Honcharuk government - 29 Aug 2019 -4 Mar 2020: Zelensky's party and nominations - 8, People's Front - 1(Avakov), independent - 10
- Shmyhal government - 4 Mar 2020 - present: (current cabinet) independent -17, Zelensky's party and nominations - 9
Current cabinet is the first since the overthrow of Yanukovych in 2014 which doesn't have pro-American and pro-British faction in the cabinet. While Zelensky has been targeted by a smear campaign calling him "sluha zakhodu" (servant of the west) he is not part of the same clique that was elevated to power after 2014. I am not sufficiently familiar with internal Ukrainian politics to propose an explanation which is why I describing this as a "hypothesis" rather than a "theory" of what's happening around Ukraine.
The key event in my view is the
dismissal of Arsen Avakov who headed the Ministry of Internal Affairs since
22 February 2014 until 15 July 2021.
Avakov was a member of Arsen Yatsenuk's "People's Front" and previously of Timosheko's "Fatherland" and Yushchenko's "Our Ukraine". He was responsible for allowing Ukrainian right-wing inside the National Guard's volunteer units. The party "People's Front" also included in its ranks commanders of the volunteer units. That made Avakov an American intelligence asset in the Ukrainian government, rather than a partisan.
Importantly in the 2019 election
People's Front has lost all 82 seats in the parliament, yet Avakov retained the ministerial position due to his "experience".
If we consider that through Avakov US intelligence held the "trigger" of the conflict being able to escalate it below the threshold of war through protests, riots, terrorist attacks etc. then removal of Avakov and placing the ministry under Zelensky's loyalist Denys Monastyrsky meant that the "trigger" was out of hand because the foreign and defense minister is by law nominated by the president regardless of electoral result, so they can't be affected by snap elections.
Let's develop the hypothesis - implicit and explicit cause:
The
implicit cause for the attack is the radical drop in popularity of Volodymyr Zelensky and his party "Servant of the People". In 2019 Zelensky won the election with 73% and his party received 43% of votes to the parliament allowing it to govern independently with 254 seats out of 450. However within months the support plummeted and it currently at mid 20s for Zelensky himself and below 20% for the party.
Both the 2014 and 2019 elections were
snap elections caused by the presidential election in April of 2014 and 2019 respectively. President of Ukraine has broader powers than in most parliamentary-presidential republics and among others nominates the foreign and defense minister to the government cabinet.
The
explicit cause could be the resignation of former chief of campaign, chief of party and chairman of the parliament Dmytro Razumkov
on 8th November 2021. Razumkov consequently set up his own party "Smart Politics" and polls at ~8%. He is the founder of Razumkov Centre which is a long-standing influential pro-western think-tank which also conducts its own polls.
Current constitution of Ukraine states that unlike in 2019 there will be
only proportional representation and no single-mandate districts which gives parties greater power over the final outcome.
Latest polling - by Razumkov Centre, see Wikipedia link - gives in a hypothetical parliamentary snap election:
- 25,2% to Poroshenko,
- 18,4% to Zelensky,
- 12,6% to Timoshenko,
- 9% to Boyko/Russians
- 8,7% to Razumkov
With two more parties around the 5% threshold and several securely below it. Such result would restore the situation from after the 2014 election and could even result in removal of Zelensky's party from government with Poroshenko, Timoshenko and Razumkov forming a governing coalition.
All that is required is sufficient drop in confidence to force a snap election.
The easiest method that is available to the US - and which also achieves the additional objective of weakening EU and destabilizing local energy markets - is to inspire "fear, uncertainty and despair" aka FUD through creating an impression of an imminent Russian threat and the government's inability to resolve the issue without western (American and British) help.
- If people believe the attack is imminent but the attack itself is an information attack - thus ignored by the command and government - then US/UK create a situation where the government is seen as incompetent and endangering the security of the country. This provides excuse for defectors to cast their votes against the government and force dissolution.
- If the government acts as if the attack was imminent even though it knows it is fabricated then it also can be presented as incompetence, an admission of guilt, and the defectors can overthrow the cabinet.
This could explain why recently there were contradictory statements from both the US and Ukrainian governments with the US government officials insisting that Russian attack is imminent, while Ukrainian government insisted that no such attack is likely and appealing to the public for calm.
This hypothesis sound plausible enough to be considered but recently (2 Feb 2022) this presidential decree has been signed:
In 2020 Ukraine spent ~3% of GDP (~$6bn) on defense while maintaining 215 thousand active personnel, not including reservers, border guard and National Guard (former Internal Troops).
Ukraine's GDP has recently reached 200bn USD. However currently Ukraine relies on conscription to fill the necessary positions. While conscription is extremely unpopular and the mandatory military training lasting 3-4 months proposed in the reform is an improvement it does not resolve the issue of the standing army. If the conscripts are replaced with contract soldiers the necessary budget for defense will have to be increased in relative terms possibly to 4-4,5% of GDP.
This decree will be easily used by opposition as redirecting funds from social services to professional military. It also focuses on Ukraine's self-reliance in defensive capabilities doubling-down on current stance of the government that Ukraine doesn't need external support to defend itself.
In my view it is clearly an attempt by Zelensky to gain popularity among people opposed to conscription but also among the armed forces as the decree mandates
an increase in the material conditions and salaries for military personnel.
At this point I can assume that the hypothesis should be tested against proper evidence which I don't have because it requires someone up to date with Ukrainian politics. I don't know why Zelensky is targeted or what the demands of Biden administration were but it is most plausible and comprehensive explanation so far.
Feel free to test against it.
