Ukrainian War Developments

lube said:

It's going to be Belarus joining the fight as well. We already saw the buildup for this Western Ukraine thrust since day 2.

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Guess Tank Biathlon is cancelled this year?

anzha said:

Nope, but I seriously doubt that is accurate.

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Grain of salt, but it could be accurate. The Russians failed their quick decapitation attempt so they've set an operational pause for 1-2 days in preparation for Plan B.

So the things we thought Russia will use from Day 0, sweeping, methodical advance with combined arms and grid area removal is 99% going to happen.

There'll be less opportunities for the Ukrainians to get lucky if this is the case.

Jingle Bells said:

You are proposing throwing expensive and precious US SSN at cheap and numerous Chinese ASW platforms just off Chinese shores.....

Can SSN stop shore based long range anti-ship missiles? Especially those cheap ones that are design specifically for large, slow cargo ships without adequate air defense capabilities.

Dude, have you no idea of what geostrategy, logistics and the geographical aspects of warfare are, do you?

Any blockade on Taiwan would be a blatant strategy of "围点打援". The BIGGEST and most important strategic advantage the US military has over Chinese military is the reach of the US military. Therefore, strategically, the US use of force would be most efficient, if they can manage to make China "overstretch" her reach, into a territory where the US has overwhelming logistical and geostrategic advantage.

Trying to do "airlift Berlin style" is nothing but a typical American macho-man egotistical display of narcissism, born out of deep rooted penis-envy insecurity. The American does this often, not because the US people is not a great people. But because they have been constantly bombarded and brainwashing by Hollywood "Chad (personal-heroism)" propaganda disguised as entertainments since their birth.

Take the most pragmatic and rational Chinese, force him to watch "Team America" 10000 times, guess what he will do? He will fantasize about himself being Tony Stark saying "I've successfully privatized world peace. What more do you want?" in the mirror in his undies, before taking a shower and go to bed.

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I am average Go player (Weiqi or Baduk etc) and about say 20 kyu (percentile wise its about average) and there is this Go AI open sourced called KataGo which is basically already superhuman (11D) on even single GPU hardware (say rtx2080 or above) on normal time limits...

If I play with the intent to win and win as much points as possible, I end up losing a maximum amount of points and will never be able to score a win against the AI not even in a million years...

But although Go like Chess is a win/lose, and pro level often its decided by as little different as half a point (there is really no draw in Go unlike Chess) in Go there is a more granular level of scoring than Chess which is binary (either King is checkmate or it is not, whereas in Go you can lose/win by x amount of points accurate to half a point)

So if I play the AI going in knowing I will never win but playing "safely" and conservatively, if I give up say 10 to 20 points, then I can usually manage to lose the game but with "only" a lose of 10 to 20 points, whereas if I play to win, I end up with often losing 50 or even 100 points (basically majority of the board)...

US is the stronger player for sure against China, but like you said about 围点打援 etc if she brings the fight to China's doorstep and do that Hollywood crap, she will lose badly... (conventionally, not talking about MAD escalation ladder etc)

Geopolitically America is playing a lot of overplay moves that in the long term are all to its detriment, if it were to play more lightly and be less greedy it would actually end up with more points.

sferrin said:

Those Pesky SSNs and bombers might have something to say about that.

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and 039Cs and J-20s have something to say about them.

yongpengsuen said:

Kiev will never accept loss of second biggest city Kharkiv and second biggest port city Mariupol. The war will last years and years.

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There's no way Putin will accept Russian cities like Kharkiv, Mariupol or Odessa being under Ukrainian rule unless it's under a Belarus style pro-Kremlin puppet.

I doubt they'll let the Ukrainians keep any nuclear sites either given what they've said in the past.

bustead said:

I am sorry if that is the case. I am just woke up so I think I missed a lot.

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This thread contains like 95% of the activity going on this site.

I think that many realizes the symbolism of this war.

It marks the beginning of the long winter facing the world this next 2 decades as US and her allies loses their grid on their long hegemony/control and the violence that will follow during that process.

1st sign was the cracks in US democracy/leadership exposed by Trump.
2nd is Russia standing up to US dominance in Europe and now we have this war.
3rd is ?
4th ????

How much force can Belarus bring into this? Would it likely be be part of the Brest offensive do you feel or separate?

anzha said:

Nope, but I seriously doubt that is accurate.

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lube said:

Grain of salt, but it could be accurate. The Russians failed their quick decapitation attempt so they've set an operational pause for 1-2 days in preparation for Plan B.

So the things we thought Russia will use from Day 0, sweeping, methodical advance with combined arms and grid area removal is 99% going to happen.

There'll be less opportunities for the Ukrainians to get lucky if this is the case.

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2 days for Ukraine to get Western arms.

Kich said:

This thread contains like 95% of the activity going on this site.

I think that many realizes the symbolism of this war.

It marks the beginning of the long winter facing the world this next 2 decades as US and her allies loses their grid on their long hegemony/control and the violence that will follow during that process.

1st sign was the cracks in US democracy/leadership exposed by Trump.
2nd is Russia standing up to US dominance in Europe and now we have this war.
3rd is ?
4th ????

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All I know is that 5th will be sticks and stones.

lube said:

Grain of salt, but it could be accurate. The Russians failed their quick decapitation attempt so they've set an operational pause for 1-2 days in preparation for Plan B.

So the things we thought Russia will use from Day 0, sweeping, methodical advance with combined arms and grid area removal is 99% going to happen.

There'll be less opportunities for the Ukrainians to get lucky if this is the case.

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did they even announce the amount of days it will take? I was expecting Ukraine to take longer than Georgia.