Ukrainian War Developments

KYli said:

My observation is that Russia didn't use much of its artillery. Both Russia and China love to use massed artillery to soften their enemies and targets before full assault. I think it has to be the fact that Russia doesn't want to have bad publicity and to control civilian casualties. In addition, I find it odd that Russia didn't bombard Ukraine for a few weeks before attacking like the NATO or the US did. It could be that Russia wanted a quick victory and element of surprise. Unlike the West which has MSM on its side, Russia doesn't want a prolong war and wanted to finish the war in a matter of weeks not months.

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Krasnopol

KYli said:

My observation is that Russia didn't use much of its artillery.

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FriedButter said:

They certainly aren’t doing a lot of air sorties either.

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Bad assumptions.

Most air sorties would've been at high altitude, phone cameras don't capture that. And MLRS barrages targeted Ukrainian formations, so you wouldn't find civilian footage of this because no civilians were present where those formations were deployed.

In the coming days, detailed analysis of how the war unfolded will be released on open-source intel. We'll get a better picture of what the air sortie rate and MLRS effects were. I'd bet in the first 24 hours, there was intense air and artillery action.

By now, major Ukrainian formations and its air force is probably out of the equation. That phase seems to be over already

9dashline said:

But indeed China IS the only real "threat" to US hegemony

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But it's the best kind of threat they see... It's not illegal.

anzha said:

Russia is threatening military consequences for Finland an Sweden if they join NATO

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Based. Putin has seemed to finally make a decision on how to communicate with the West.

For the past 30 years its was by the pen, from today onwards it will be by the sword. If anyone starts doing the useless things they did in the past, get ready to not face Putin the modern man, but Putin the Tsar.

For anyone asking what does that mean, simply open a history book and read how the Tsars behaved with hostile/bothersome countries (hint: not in a good way).

9dashline said:

Russia doesn't have much oil, and EU only gets like 35% at most of its Natural Gas from Russia


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Except that’s not how reality works. Depending on the source Russia is top 2-4 of global oil exporters. Cutting them off from swift means they can’t buy oil with dollars anymore and I doubt Russia and their customers have bilateral trade agreements with local currencies.

And here is the issue with the EU 35% of gas from Russia. There is no extra global supply sitting anyway for Europe to replace Russian Gas with. Otherwise, the US wouldn’t be trying to negotiate with the Saudis and Qatar for gas. To supply Europe with gas means they will have to take it away from other countries.

“The volume of gas needed by the EU cannot be replaced by anyone unilaterally, without disturbing supplies to other regions around the world," the minister, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, said in a statement

“Keeping our contractual word is sacrosanct in Qatar,'' said Kaabi, implying that it will not be possible to divert to Europe gas shipments already contracted for delivery to other countries without their consent

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Cut Russia off from swift and there will be a global frenzy for energy because they can’t use dollars to buy Russian energy. So everyone will be forced to chase after a smaller quantity of energy thus massive inflation.

siegecrossbow said:

Just in time to be received by Russians?

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Don’t be ridiculous, it clearly says it will be delivered outside the country. Since it won’t get back to Ukraine in time, it will be sold on eBay

“GUARANTEED 100% AUTHENTIC BUNDESWEHR HELMET NIB!!!” NO RESERVE

Overbom said:

Based. Putin has seemed to finally make a decision on how to communicate with the West.

For the past 30 years its was by the pen, from today onwards it will be by the sword. If anyone starts doing the useless things they did in the past, get ready to not face Putin the modern man, but Putin the Tsar.

For anyone asking what does that mean, simply open a history book and read how the Tsars behaved with hostile/bothersome countries (hint: not in a good way).

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The Two Horsemen of Western Decline...

Zichan said:

What Russia is doing in principle is detrimental to China. They've thrown aside the respect for the sanctity of other nation's integrity and sovereignty by annexing Crimea and recognizing the two rebel republics in the east of the Ukraine. By not overtly reprimanding Russia for its transgressive behavior China is demonstrating to the world that its

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are self-centered: as long as you respect our integrity and sovereignty, we don't really care what you do with third party nation's integrity and sovereignty.

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I do agree that it is a step away from official Chinese established positions. But China has woken up that the west does not respect borders or sovereignty as we have seen in funding Xinjiang, Tibetan, HK separatists. Russia saw how the west couped a democratically elected Yanukovych and in turn decided to launch cyber and misinformation attacks all over the west.

Perhaps this is a threat to the west that China, will become like Russia and no longer stick to it's policy of non-interference if the west continues funding separatists.

From the way the market behaved, stocks up big two days in a row and oil prices dropped significantly from the peak, it doesn't seem the market is predicting harsh sanctions or foreseeing oil export from Russia will be cut from this event.