Wow! What a thread this has become! I expect in a month any hiatuses I take are going to be hilarious to return and read through the posts here. I have to say this thread has a wild tendency to degenerate into arguments over things having little to do with the Russo-Ukrainian War. I saw one warning. We should heed it. There might be one more after that, but we had a thread lock once, folks.
Some thoughts.
1. Kramatorsk's train station. I don't think the Russians did it. I don't think the Ukrainians did it. There is a 'third' party to this war, another set of combatants known to fsck up. Ones that known for shooting down 'cute birds' the last time fighting in the Donbas was really hot. Ones known to be given captured Ukrainian equipment. Ones noted for using the phrase 'for the children.' If you haven't guessed it, I'm disappointed. They are the LNR and DNR. It makes no sense for the Russians to hit the station intentionally. A false flag by the Ukrainians seems more likely to cost them support than gather it: the truth will out. The DNR+LNR use a lot of captured Ukrainian equipment and they are not as professional as the Russians and Ukrainians for their targeting. I don't think they intentionally targeted the train station. I can't imagine a handed over Tochka would be terribly accurate. However, LNR+DNR feet fit the slipper the best of the groups involved.
2. The losses described of the Russian BTGs. I've been tracking the photographic evidence and keeping a rough tally of the losses of IFVs, APCs and tanks. I have equipment losses for at least 18, almost 19 BTG for their APCs, IFVs and tanks plus another 8 tank battalions. 35% of the tanks the original 130 BTG had have been lost (neglecting the non BTG tank units). That's...bad.
The death guessimate I have now hits over 4,100 dead. This is based on the destroyed tanks, apcs, ifvs and MT-LBs. This does not count rear echelons, infantry not associated with that equipment, or other vehicles' crew and passengers. I definitely believe the infantry have suffered more than what I am guessimating - they always do - and I also believe t he rear echelons have been targeted a lot, but I don't have a good feel for deaths there.
If we go with a 3x deaths for wounded, we get 12,300 wounded. That would bring casualties to a total of 16,400 or more than 20 entire BTG.
Could 25% of the units deployed be combat ineffective? A total of 32 BTG mauled? I believe that is possibly true. It could be worse: remember the Russians have been reinforced and the total BTG deployed into Ukraine are more than the original 130 BTG.
Remember: combat ineffective does NOT mean everyone in that unit has died. It means between 20 to 40% of the personnel or equipment has been destroyed, killed, wounded, or requires significant repair.
With the admission by the Russian government the losses have been bad, even in an off the cuff remark, I definitely believe they have been chewed up. How much? We will have to wait and see. I don't think we have a good number just yet, even and especially me, despite tracking everything I can.
3. Czechia and Slovakia sending combat vehicles to Ukraine is a bluff call of Russia. If Russia doesn't do anything, we will see more nations doing the same thing, overtly or covertly. I have a feeling more equipment has been shipped covertly, but it's not based on anything other than a feeling. I am starting to think, for this war, IFVs might be the best AFVs to get: move lots of infantry fast and have them hop out with ATGMs... IFVs and artillery. Lots of artillery. And drones. Where is our resident drone salesman?
4. I want to call people's attention to the T-80s in the Kharkov Oblast that was recently posted. There's a detail I suspect most people missed: dust. Lots of dust. We could be seeing an early drying of the raputitsa. That would be bad for the Ukrainians and beneficial for the Russians. The Ukrainians need another month, IMO, of reinforcement by general mud to get into a better position by killing tanks, APCs, IFVs and trucks limited to the roads...and, therefore, easy to kill by infantry and very hard to pursue by tanks, etc. Mud will win or lose the war.
5. The Ukrainian army seems to be practicing what western armies claim they like to do, but rarely actually do: lots of initiative and independence by the local forces in contact. The West often talks this, but when faced with real combat, the commanders on high intervene a LOT. Even down to the squad from the colonel level. Here it seems, the Ukrainians are showing exactly how effective the model could be if anyone actually followed it. Huh. Hypocrisy and deviation from military doctrine when actually facing combat. Can't imagine who else has done that besides the West. Huh, Russia?
6. Finally, I don't think Russia is winning. I don't think she's losing either. Everything hinges on what happens in the next month. The keys will be the raputitsa and logistics. Whoever gets there to the fastest with the mostest will win this. If the Russians can pull together enough forces to finally produce the kessel (Baba Yaga's pot!) and the mud relents, they'll win. If the Ukrainians can reinforce their flanks enough to chew up the Russian offensive and the muck stays for a month longer, I think they have a solid chance at beating the Russians back across the ante bellum borders.
