Ukrainian War Developments

“The Battle for Donbass is coming: According to Pentagon estimates, more than 40 Russian battalion tactical groups are located in or near the Donbass region.
On Wednesday, April 6, the figure was called "more than 30". About 10,000 more military personnel have arrived in recent days," a correspondent from the Pentagon said. ABC News.”

Ukrainian army assaulting civilians.

Zichan said:

According to an official statement from Slovakian MOD, they were replaced with 4 batteries of Patriot SAMs:
Security of the Slovak Republic and our citizens is our highest priority. That is why we decided to make this decision in the moment, when we have the adequate replacement for the S-300 system, as we had stated before. Fourth battery of the Patriot system, one of the most modern air-defence systems, provided by our Allies, will be deployed in Slovakia. Together, four batteries of the Patriot system will cover the territory of the Slovak Republic. Due to the technical condition, limited options of maintenance and age of the S-300 system, the deployment of the fourth battery of the Patriot system is great news for Slovakia and at the same time tremendous help for Ukraine.”

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So the Slovaks will be basically giving their air defense unit in return for loaned units which can be taken back whenever those countries want? Neat.

FairAndUnbiased said:

This better be a bus to Russian territory or a POW camp.
I don't advocate violence towards POWs. But they do need to be 100% disarmed and not allowed to continue fighting. They should not be released and allowed to get armed again. Even feeding them for free is better than releasing them.

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They will be sent to a POW camp most likely and swapped for Russian prisoners.

Maikeru said:

Drive article comprehensively debunking Russia's lies about the murders it committed in Kramatorsk today:

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Uh right. An article with the usual lack of quality I have come to expect from The Drive's Russian coverage in general. The Tochka isn't in service in Russia. In those maneuvers the Ukrainians have movies of, those were Belarus units, and the Belarus border is too far away and out of range. Belarus hasn't even become an active part of the conflict thus far. Then there is the fact by the layout of the missile wreckage it came from the opposite side of the Belarussian or Russian border. It seems to have been fired from the same direction the Ukrainian troops in Donbass are in. Then there is the fact in this conflict thus far the Ukrainian side are the only ones who have used the Tochka. In fact they used it against the civilian populated areas in Donbass controlled by the separatists and hit a civilian market in Lugansk. Then newspapers in Italy used these as front page pictures to claim it was a Russian attack in Ukraine government held areas. Ridiculous.
An Ukrainian Tochka with cluster ammunition, similar to what was used in this attack, also destroyed that Russian troop landing ship in Berdyansk. And it was fired from roughly the same direction. So perhaps the Russians also blew up their own ship?

I still hope this was the Ukrainians trying to hit Russian troops south of Izyum and dropping the Tochka into the wrong target. Because if they did this on purpose to avoid ethnic Russians at Kramatorsk from evacuating the city to use them as human shields to delay the Russian push south from Izyum this is a major war crime. Unfortunately it would not be out of character compared to what they have done thus far. We have videos of Azov at Mariupol shooting at civilian cars and dragging people out of their vehicles to prevent them from leaving the city.

Overbom said:

"U.S Defense and Intelligence Officials are reporting that the Russia Military is now Mobilizing more than 60,000 Reservists to send into Combat Operations in Ukraine in the next few weeks, though the number of Reservist could be Increased quite rapidly if the Need Arises."

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Gosh I hope so. I cannot see them enter Kharkiv with the current force size they are using.

Abominable said:

The EU model isn't sustainable though. Having your young working population emigrate so they can clean toilets or pick strawberries in Germany or Sweden is very bad for the country long term. Developing countries can manage with high emigration ok as they have high birth rates to replace the lost population, Ukraine has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. People talk about China having demographic problems, Ukraine's population was decreasing >1% a year before this war. Imagine how high emigration would be with EU membership.

The only industry they had was whatever was left from the USSR that they didn't plunder post break up, and their only source of income was EU funding and Russian gas transit fees. Ukraine is the definition of a failed state.

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Well, it doesn't matter. What matters for politicians in a parliamentary system is if they can convince the people to vote for them, when it comes to important subject like EU/NATO membership.

EU does not NEED to really be able to provide a viable option in long run. They are preferred by direct comparison with Russia. When you have EU on one side and Russia on the other, majority of people are certainly going to jump on the EU bandwagon.

Remember, all of these are not happening after Ukraine joins the EU, it is happening BEFORE they do. This is why EU, US, NATO are always going to be a attractive option in the minds of Ukrainians.

Besides, even for calculated strategists. They are not entirely wrong about joining NATO and EU. Because these two packages DOES offer strategic advantages, for poor former USSR/Warsaw-pact nations. This is simply because NATO membership would drastically alleviate member nation's defense budget burden. They can afford to pay much much less on defense, and still have credible national security guarantee. This is a very sound and compelling arguments, let's not pretend it's not. It is especially true when EU and NATO memberships are together, provide both alleviation of defense budget burden, AND access to a large and rich integrated European economy and common market.

Regardless of political sympathies, we must be as truthful and neutral as possible to recognize the value and meanings of EU/NATO membership for small countries in the close vicinity.

gelgoog said:

An Ukrainian Tochka with cluster ammunition, similar to what was used in this attack, also destroyed that Russian troop landing ship in Berdyansk. And it was fired from roughly the same direction. So perhaps the Russians also blew up their own ship?

I still hope this was the Ukrainians trying to hit Russian troops south of Izyum and dropping the Tochka into the wrong target. Because if they did this on purpose to avoid ethnic Russians at Kramatorsk from evacuating the city to use them as human shields to delay the Russian push south from Izyum this is a major war crime. Unfortunately it would not be out of character compared to what they have done thus far. We have videos of Azov at Mariupol shooting at civilian cars and dragging people out of their vehicles to prevent them from leaving the city.

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Two missiles missing yet hitting the same target? Don't buy it.

Loaded up with anti-personnel cluster munitions, hitting a city that a day ago had announced an evacuation via rail. The same region where everywhere else mayors are telling citizens to stay in place like in Kharkhiv, despite how close to the front line they are.

This was clearly a targeted attack to kill as many civilians as possible. The only question is who is responsible.

Jingle Bells said:

Well, it doesn't matter. What matters for politicians in a parliamentary system is if they can convince the people to vote for them, when it comes to important subject like EU/NATO membership.

EU does not NEED to really be able to provide a viable option in long run. They are preferred by direct comparison with Russia. When you have EU on one side and Russia on the other, majority of people are certainly going to jump on the EU bandwagon.

Remember, all of these are not happening after Ukraine joins the EU, it is happening BEFORE they do. This is why EU, US, NATO are always going to be a attractive option in the minds of Ukrainians.

Besides, even for calculated strategists. They are not entirely wrong about joining NATO and EU. Because these two packages DOES offer strategic advantages, for poor former USSR/Warsaw-pact nations. This is simply because NATO membership would drastically alleviate member nation's defense budget burden. They can afford to pay much much less on defense, and still have credible national security guarantee. This is a very sound and compelling arguments, let's not pretend it's not. It is especially true when EU and NATO memberships are together, provide both alleviation of defense budget burden, AND access to a large and rich integrated European economy and common market.

Regardless of political sympathies, we must be as truthful and neutral as possible to recognize the value and meanings of EU/NATO membership for small countries in the close vicinity.

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Joining the EU/NATO would probably make more economic sense than joining the Russian block in the short term at least.

As you say, it doesn't matter what we think, it's ultimately a choice for the Ukrainians to make. But that decision may have consequences (i.e. Russia invading) and they shouldn't expect anyone outside of the EU/NATO to care or help them if it happens.

tank3487 said:

It was not small sums. Especially considering as long it had dragged. Plus Russian market. Plus oil. Main reason of Ukraine poverty is corruption.

Plus, cake do not work if guys that actually make decisions in Ukraine(oligarchs) store all the capital in the west. US always can blackmail by threat to steal the assets. This is why there was never a proRussian government in Ukraine. In the best case, there were episodes of government that are neutral to Russia. It is actually why the whole point of "Russia had alienated Ukraine with Crimea move" are pointless, Russia never had any foothold in Ukraine despite massive waste of resources.

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Okey, can you show us in numbers why you think it is not a small sum?
Like how many billions of "cake" they got from Russia, in comparison to how big the Ukrainian economy is.

Because if the cake is big enough, where did all these money go? If these cake are big enough to give Ukraine a steady growth into a rich high-income society in a foreseeable future when corruption is non-existence, than where are these money?

Or you can show us how high Ukrainian GDP can get when corruption is very low, with the "cake" given by Russia gets to where it should go. Because my original argument was NOT about whether Russia has and gives cake, but on how big this cake is compare to what the Ukrainian perceives they can get when joining the EU.

We really need to be sensitive to numbers.

Heavy units now moving into Ukraine

the fight is now going to be taken to the Russians

pmc said:

How exactly is Russia poor when it managed FIFA world Cup, Winter Olympics, Formula 1, University Games without creating much debt?
Russia provide huge remittances and reasonable cheap energy with interconnecting electric grid, transport, grain to all CIS countries. this in addition to people from those countries residing there.

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Trillionaires of Arab world deal with Russia differently than they deal with poor souls in Europe. similar case will be with India. India want to expand its financial markets globally. it will further integrate into Middleast and Russia.

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How big is the Russian economy in total GDP, compare to EU/US. How big is Russian GDP per capita, compare to EU/US.
Now if Ukraine has to choose between joining Russia (and whatever Russia-led security alliance) and joining EU and (US-led) NATO, how do you convince the Ukrainians to join Russia?

Lapin said:

Hundreds of thousands of Russians were willing to fight on the side of Hitler against the USSR.
Why do you apparently act as though it's unbelievable that hundreds of Russians may be willing to fight for Ukraine?

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"The Russians Fighting Putin in Ukraine"
--Amie Ferris-Rotman in 'Time' magazine

"A war within a war has emerged in Ukraine. More than a month after the Russian army invaded on the order of
President Vladimir Putin, more and more Russian nationals are fighting alongside Ukrainians.
The combatants, who appear to number in at least the hundreds, describe Putin as the enemy, even as they take up arms
against their countrymen. They range from captured Russian soldiers to political dissidents ..."

"Ukraine’s government, which has cast the war as a contest between the forces of darkness and light, is leveraging Russian disunity.
On April 5, three men wearing military fatigues and black balaclavas faced reporters in Kyiv, where they announced a new battalion
called composed entirely of Russian citizens, including former POWs. Addressing their fellow Russians, they
said they were morally outraged by Moscow’s lack of discipline and apparent disregard for human life."

"Russian defectors are also welcome in Kyiv. On April 2, Ukrainian passed a new law saying any Russian soldier who
surrenders with a warship or jet will be awarded $1 million. A captured tank will earn them $100,000 and there is $10,000 for smaller
military equipment. The first vice-speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Oleksandr Kornienko, said the rewards would motivate the
“demoralized occupying army”. The law comes after a previous offer by Kyiv of $10,000 to any Russian soldier who surrenders."

Russian Orion/Inokhodets UCAV downed by Ukrainian air-defenses; first operational loss of a MALE drone sustained by Russian Forces.