Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bill Blazo

Junior Member
Registered Member
100% they're going to a POW camp, likely on Russian territory. I doubt they'll be released until they've finished rebuilding Mariupol in 5 years.
I wouldn't bet on that. Both sides have done several prisoner swaps already. The Ukrainians announced sometime around March 20 that they held about 600 Russian POWs. That number has almost certainly dwindled since then because of the exchanges, but there are probably still a few Russian POWs that the Russian army might want to get back. We'll see.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The Ukrainian government has established a Russian partisan volunteer battalion known as the “Freedom of Russia” legion for its armed forces; similar to volunteer Chechen and Belarusian brigades established by the Ukrainian government.

It was allegedly established after a company of Russian soldiers had surrendered and later agreed to voluntarily fight for the Ukrainian cause.

The brigade has reportedly received over a hundred members; with their uniforms displaying a blue and white tri-band sleeve insignia which has been used in the Russian Federation as sign of opposition to the current war in the Ukraine.
Assuming that they genuinely want to fight against Russia (and it's not just because the Ukrainians have threatened to castrate them) there's no way Ukrainians would hand weapons over to freshly captured Russian soldiers, even they aren't that stupid.

Hence fresh uniforms but no guns. So obviously a photo op.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I wouldn't bet on that. Both sides have done several prisoner swaps already. The Ukrainians announced sometime around March 20 that they held about 600 Russian POWs. That number has almost certainly dwindled since then because of the exchanges, but there are probably still a few Russian POWs that the Russian army might want to get back. We'll see.
Russians have captured over 1,000 Ukrainian POWs and that was before the recent big hauls. If Ukrainians want their POWs back they need to stop killing the Russian ones they've captured.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
You may have a point regarding the existence of a regional identity, but that won't convince anyone opposing it, nor have it any bearing on how people think and act.

If we map Ukraine to Taiwan, you would be arguing the existence of the identity of Taiwan whatever that identity means. But to most mainland Chinese, Taiwan as an identity does not mean anything, pretty much like what Russians see Ukraine. If we have to, mainland Chinese will be as "brutal" in dealing with Taiwan as Russians in dealing with Ukraine. And Chinese won't say anything complicated and less blunt about Taiwan. Just remind you of a well-known saying supposedly by Chinese defence minister "we don't want to take back Taiwan militarily, but if forced to we would rather take back a scorched island." "宁可 台 湾 不长草!也要 解 放 台 湾 岛".

I don't intend to bring in off-topic matters in the thread, but I think it worth to remind you to put yourself in the shoes of mainland Chinese and Russians. Failing to do so, it would be Chicken talking to the duck, pointless.
Stop!
You don't want to get banned!
Reply me on the other thread:
 

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
While supporting their country's struggle against Russia, some Ukrainians refuse to support blaming or punishing all Russians.
Consequently, these Ukrainians may be punished by their own government or its organizations.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Ukraine chess sisters refuse to sign anti-Russian letter
Mariya and Anna Muzychuk are facing expulsion for declining to support a total ban on Russian and Belarusian players."

"Chess officials in Ukraine say they will punish former world champions Mariya and Anna Muzychuk after the siblings refused to
sign a letter calling for the total exclusion of Russian and Belarusian players from international events.

The Lvov Chess Federation issued a statement this week listing a host of requests for world governing body FIDE, including the
expulsion of the Russian and Belarusian federations from the organization and a complete ban on players from the two countries.
The letter also demanded that Russian FIDE president Arkady Dvorkovich step down because of his supposed association with
“bloody dictator” Vladimir Putin."

If I recall correctly, Dvorkovich has expressed his disapproval of Russia's war, though he did not explicitly condemn Putin.

"As it stands, Russian and Belarusian chess stars are allowed to compete as individuals at FIDE events although on a strictly neutral basis."
"... the organization said it would “cease cooperation” with the Lvov-born sisters and initiate proceedings for their exclusion from the federation."

"Former world title challenger [Sergey] Karjakin was hit with a six-month ban [by FIDE] which the Russian chess authorities have
formally announced they will appeal against.

Karjakin, 32,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that he and the Muzychuk sisters were on “opposite sides of the barricades” but added he respected
their refusal to back a blanket ban on Russians, saying “sports principles are not just an empty phrase for them.”
Anna Muzychuk had criticized Karjakin in a Facebook post at the end of February, stating her opposition to Russia’s actions
in Ukraine and calling on more Russian players to speak out against the conflict."

Many Russian chess players have expressed their disapproval of Russia's war on Ukraine.
But Sergey Karjakin (who was born in Crimea) has vehemently expressed his absolute support of the war and of Putin.
As far as I can infer, many, if not most, Ukrainian players would refuse to play chess with Karjakin.

Amidst concerns for their safety (attractive young women would be prime targets for rape by Russian soldiers),
Anna and Mariya Muzychak have been offered refuge by a German chess publisher, who declared that they were
welcome to stay at his home for as long as they wished.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
No.

That is the self-defeating mentality of the crass nouveau riche.

Money can’t overcome corruption. It can;t encourage the speaking of truth to power. It can’t create a habit of intellectual honesty required to genuinely solve problems better than others can. It can’t open closed minds determined to not see things differently
I didn't say money can solve all problems.
But will you honestly think that if the Russians has 10 times their current economy and is able to put 10 times more money into their military as they have now for the last 20 decades, they will perform as badly as they are right now?
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Most people look at this war and complain about how bad the supply line is and the Russians don't have enough drones etc. They don't understand the Russian doctrine.

First, the Russians military are not built to fight the U.S. or China. For the former, they have their nuclear deterrence, for the latter, they have a strategic partnership. In fact, the only places they will fight are places with substantial pro-Russian grass-root support. That means a few countries in the Middle East like Syria, Iran and in the future, maybe Iraq, in the former Soviet countries, places with substantial ethnic Russians. They picked Ukraine because it is one of the toughest nations to fight among this group. Once they are done with Ukraine, all the smaller states around Russia will never consider taking an anti-Russian stand again.

The former Soviet countries are relatively flat. The Russian regular arm forces does not want to do street to street fighting. If you think about it, once the regular Ukrainian arm forces that are professionally trained are finished, the war is basically over. Russian regular arm forces against newly drafted civilians are basically no contest. To engage the Ukrainian regular arm forces, the Russian military is designed to use their mobility to maneuver to the most strategically advantageous location adjacent the Ukrainian arm forces and set up an impenetrable zone. In this context, strategically advantageous means they can cut off any reinforcement and re-supplying by just occupying this land. It also means a position that would prevent the Ukrainian side from retaking the territories that the Russians have gained. There will be a big strip of land outside the city where the Ukrainian arm forces cannot venture out. The army does not burn a lot of fuel, does not engage in heavy street to street fighting. Their job is just to stay put. Very little loss of Russian lives and equipment. 80km radius can be set up such that to get to the center to destroy the Russian arm forces, the enemy must first make contact with vanguard of the Russian forces. They will be annihilated with long range munition. In the meanwhile, Ukrainian regular arm forces will be slowly destroyed with standoff munition and starve of supplies and cut off from reinforcement. Russian drones are flying overhead, gathering information while the long range munitions from warships, planes come down. What can the Ukrainian side do to fight? They can use cannons to lure the Russian jets into bombing their own position, then use manpads to try to take down the Russian planes. Indeed, early on in the war, they did have some success, but that comes at a huge cost. Each encounter will result in either a Russian plane being shot down or the exposed cannon and related position being taken out, however, the odds are very lopsided against the Ukrainians. The Russian planes will approach from an angle favorable to them and the time that the plane is in visual range is very short, in a few seconds. During this time, the manpads have to aim and shoot and hit the target, a very difficult thing to do. If they fail, the exposed positions are bound to be taken out. Not only that, this will allow the Russians to direct their intelligence network on the ground to find other related locations where they can hit. With each loss, the Ukrainians are running out of trained soldiers that can hit anything with their manpads against a fast flying aircraft. The other tactic is to send small groups of people to infiltrate inside the Russian controlled area to ambush supply lines. Indeed, this also happened early on in the war. There are two problems with that. First, to infiltrate means you cannot have large and heavily armed forces. They are bound to be small groups that are lightly armed. This means they don't do that much damage. Secondly, once it happens, it is almost certain that these people will be hunted down and taken out, so this is basically a suicide mission. You simply run out of people that will do these kinds of suicide missions. For both of these tactics, the Russians have adapted and we are not seeing too many cases where Ukraine can point to and call success.

The Russians are fighting a war that they intend to, with the tactics and equipment they originally envisioned to fight this war. It will be very little cost and very low casualties on the Russian side while the Ukrainian regular arm forces will be taken out. Standoff munitions and time will do most of the heavy lifting. Their goal is to remove NATO from the former Soviet block countries. Once Ukraine is done, NATO will be finished. They will be powerless to persuade any countries around Russia to take the stance against Russia and the Russian security situation will drastically improve.
 

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Assuming that they genuinely want to fight against Russia (and it's not just because the Ukrainians have threatened to castrate them) there's no way Ukrainians would hand weapons over to freshly captured Russian soldiers, even they aren't that stupid.

Hence fresh uniforms but no guns. So obviously a photo op.
Hundreds of thousands of Russians were willing to fight on the side of Hitler against the USSR.
Why do you apparently act as though it's unbelievable that hundreds of Russians may be willing to fight for Ukraine?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top