Ukrainian War Developments

FairAndUnbiased said:

or they liquidate the Donbass pocket with the mass dumb bombs being loaded on Tu-22s right now, which would indeed end the conventional phase of the war.

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Thats supposedly for Mauriopol. But at this point Mauriopol doesn't look like it's going to fall before the Russians retreat.

FairAndUnbiased said:

or they liquidate the Donbass pocket with the mass dumb bombs being loaded on Tu-22s right now, which would indeed end the conventional phase of the war.

if you actually read the article, he said that the conflict will end by Russia achieving its goals. which is consistent with mass dumb bombs being loaded up for carpet bombing.

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They claimed they achieved their goals in the Kiev front and were ending operations. Two weeks later there were no Russian troops left in Northern Ukraine.

The casualties the Russians took in this defeat were staggering. 30,000 troops out of 170,000 wiped out in a month. This was hardly a war, it was more like a massacre of Russian troops. So that likely explains their decision.

gadgetcool5 said:

Thats supposedly for Mauriopol. But at this point Mauriopol doesn't look like it's going to fall before the Russians retreat.

They claimed they achieved their goals in the Kiev front and were ending operations. Two weeks later there were no Russian troops left in Northern Ukraine.

The casualties the Russians took in this defeat were staggering. 30,000 troops out of 170,000 wiped out in a month. This was hardly a war, it was more like a massacre of Russian troops. So that likely explains their decision.

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you don't need and in fact can't effectively use dumb bombs for a single factory in Mariupol. The inaccuracy would cause them to miss by ~100 m even with good bomb sights flying low. An entire factory's lot size is typically far less than ~1 km2. It'll be dangerous for Russian's own positions.

It's much more consistent with taking out troops in the open where there's no danger of hitting Russian positions.

How many you think Ukrainians lost with Russian military inside their country, hitting their infrastructure?

gadgetcool5 said:

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Looks like the Russians may end the war unilaterally, which only happens if they pull out entirely. Theyve lost the war.

Utterly shocking and earth shattering historical development that no one would have expected.

Given that Putin is on record with saying that Ukraine may want Crimea back in the future and a territorial dispute there is unsustainable, they may give it back as well.

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where are you getting this russia might withdraw unilaterally theory?

Richard Santos said:

where are you getting this russia might withdraw unilaterally theory?

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If you haven't noticed, they're getting destroyed. Just check out the oryx account on twitter. Time for Putin to surrender before he gets overthrown.

Also it honestly sounds like the Americans have someone in his inner circle so he may be worried about getting knocked off.

If Russia unilaterally quits the war without territorial gain or at least massively harming Ukraine's economy such that they're ruined to the degree of Yemen or Afghanistan, then China will lose by proxy.

it will massively embolden enemy fascists and nationalists in every country nearby. South Korea and Japan will get nukes at no cost. Taiwan will declare independence. they will learn the lesson that war even on their soil is not that big of a deal so provocations are OK.

Russia doesn't need to win, but they should inflict maximum harm by taking as much territory and destroying as much infrastructure as possible to disincentivize provocations. Otherwise, the lesson will be "provoke China, which is kinda like Russia, and even if we get bombed a little, they'll lose lots of soldiers and US/NATO will help us rebuild so it's worth it" And for Russia itself, that will be the same lesson. "Ukraine won, they even got tons of aid for it, it's not that big of a deal to fight Russia!"

FairAndUnbiased said:

If Russia unilaterally quits the war without territorial gain or at least massively harming Ukraine such that they're economically ruined to the degree of Yemen or Afghanistan, then China will lose by proxy.

it will massively embolden enemy fascists and nationalists in every country nearby. South Korea and Japan will get nukes at no cost. Taiwan will declare independence. they will learn the lesson that war even on their soil is not that big of a deal so provocations are OK.

Russia doesn't need to win, but they do need to inflict maximum harm by taking as much territory and destroying as much infrastructure as possible to disincentivize provocations. Otherwise, the lesson will be "provoke China, which is kinda like Russia, and even if we get bombed a little, they'll lose lots of soldiers and US/NATO will help us rebuild so it's worth it"

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Why would SK and Japan get nukes if Ukraine can defeat Russia without nukes?

OppositeDay said:

Why would SK and Japan get nukes if Ukraine can defeat Russia without nukes?

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Based on the propaganda here, it is clear that the lesson being learned by the "patriot" demographic is not "war is hell".

The lesson being learned is "war is glorious even if it happens on your land! Who cares that your infrastructure is being wrecked and civilians are dying? as long as you are pro west US/NATO will punish your enemies, help you rebuild, let your people move to their countries as refugees, give you free weapons and aid! You can act with impunity!"

It's not about any specific weapon system, it's the overall message: "As long as west has your back, you can do anything free of consequences."

Maikeru said:

That was the might of the USSR against Finland alone. Now it would be the pathetic rump of Russia with its much=attrited forces fighting against the entirety of NATO. That's only going to end one way.

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Russia will deal with Finland differently than Ukraine. Ukraine it still trying to find pro-russian population. so it is much slower process.
your mistaken on couple of assumptions. that will become obvious in coming weeks.

There is no “differently’ as if Russia has military options available to her to chose from. Russia has no practicable ones so can’t deal with Finland in the foreseeable future. Russia has no workable military option available to her to deal with any other European state in the foreseeable future either. She only has very limited range of military options available Syria, Central Asia and maybe strictly in southern Sakhalins. That’s it for the foreseeable future.

She will probably not finish whatever military reform is required to address the shortcoming of her land forces revealed in this war for at least 5 years. At the same time, there will undoubtedly be capital intensive reforms required fir her Air Force as well. This will only bring her up to the standard her forces should have achieved, but w didn’t at the beginning of the Ukrainian war.

Then she was to worry about implement new asymmetrical response to the NATO build up at her border that would have occurred over the same period. Asymmetrical because resources availabkr to her to answer the build up will be far less than the resources that would be invested in the build up.

meckhardt98 said:

Tu22M3 loading FAB-3000(s) in preparation for strategic bombing operations in Mariupol; reportedly targeting the Azovstal iron and steel production plant, one of the largest production plants in Europe.

FAB-3000 is a 6000lb dumb bomb with a 3000lb explosive warhead; yielding a 50ft destruction radius and potential 850ft fragmentation radius; one of the largest dumb-bombs in the Russian Air-Force’s arsenal

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Finally it looks like the Russians have decided to stop play fighting.