Prediction is a dangerous game, but Blazo's gonna play that shit right now. The recent Russian and separatist attacks on the eastern front are a mere prelude to the massive escalation coming later this month. For example, the recent Russian push towards Barvinkove is not a real attempt to knock out the Ukrainian army. It's just a localized effort to gain some space south of Izium in anticipation of a more comprehensive assault later this month.
I expect that the Russians will launch their major assault in the east around April 25th, so just over two weeks from now. I base this assessment on several things. First, there are still many Russian units coming through Belgorod, suggesting that the Russians are not yet fully positioned for a second major assault within Ukraine proper. Second, muddy conditions have hampered several Russian advances, as many people on this forum have mentioned already. Waiting until late April or early May could be enough time for the ground to dry after the spring thaw. And third, the Russians will likely need until April 20th before they fully control and pacify Mariupol. Since the troops currently tied down in that siege will be critical for the southern pincer in the eastern front, it stands to reason that the Russians likely won't be able to carry out another major assault until late April. Once that assault begins, I expect the Russians will be able to take Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk by the end of June. They will complete the conquest of both Donetsk and Luhansk, and they'll be able to hold on in Kherson as well. However, I doubt the Russians will ever take Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, simply because they still don't have enough troops. I don't even expect them to reach Pavlohrad, or if they reach it they won't take it. I also think the Ukrainians will successfully defend Mykolaiv, which means the Russians aren't capturing Odessa either. This is my prediction by the end of June. Of course, the war could go on beyond that point, but I doubt it will continue with the current level of intensity. Once Putin chops off 20% of Ukraine, I think he'll call it quits and declare victory. The problem is that he simply cannot afford to continue this massive conflict unless he transitions Russia to a full-blown war economy, with widespread nationalization, price and wage controls, rationing, etc. I sincerely doubt he wants to go down that path, which means he's going to push to end the war by early summer. Discuss.
I expect that the Russians will launch their major assault in the east around April 25th, so just over two weeks from now. I base this assessment on several things. First, there are still many Russian units coming through Belgorod, suggesting that the Russians are not yet fully positioned for a second major assault within Ukraine proper. Second, muddy conditions have hampered several Russian advances, as many people on this forum have mentioned already. Waiting until late April or early May could be enough time for the ground to dry after the spring thaw. And third, the Russians will likely need until April 20th before they fully control and pacify Mariupol. Since the troops currently tied down in that siege will be critical for the southern pincer in the eastern front, it stands to reason that the Russians likely won't be able to carry out another major assault until late April. Once that assault begins, I expect the Russians will be able to take Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk by the end of June. They will complete the conquest of both Donetsk and Luhansk, and they'll be able to hold on in Kherson as well. However, I doubt the Russians will ever take Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, simply because they still don't have enough troops. I don't even expect them to reach Pavlohrad, or if they reach it they won't take it. I also think the Ukrainians will successfully defend Mykolaiv, which means the Russians aren't capturing Odessa either. This is my prediction by the end of June. Of course, the war could go on beyond that point, but I doubt it will continue with the current level of intensity. Once Putin chops off 20% of Ukraine, I think he'll call it quits and declare victory. The problem is that he simply cannot afford to continue this massive conflict unless he transitions Russia to a full-blown war economy, with widespread nationalization, price and wage controls, rationing, etc. I sincerely doubt he wants to go down that path, which means he's going to push to end the war by early summer. Discuss.
Potential recognition of the DPR and LNR breakaway regions by the international community