So your saying i should buy a bigger fridge and stock up for 3 months
Its something that can be easily dispelled by the west just do a short live stream with the suppose high level people.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
Probably one of the better western assessments. I mean it's still bad but at least he tried to break down the possibilities in a logical manner. I disagree with it's conclusion obviously.
My opinion. We don't know the state of Ukraine's air defences, we can say that pre-war it could have been better. It consisted of older ex-Soviet platforms like S-300Vs, Strelka-1s, Buks and so on. Russia has been targeting them heavily but we can't say how much they've been weakened. Despite that they've managed to score some kills and it's clear that they pose some threat and must be respected. Ukraine's air force is a similar story. It's ex Soviet, has taken losses, but Russia can't discount the possibility of some sorties.
Thanks to NATO AWACS giving 24/7 coverage it will be known exactly where Russian aircraft have taken off and which direction they are going. They can feed this to local SAM operators whenever they have a chance to engage. There's no need for them to turn their radars on except for then.
As to where the RuAF is. First, it needs to be acknowledged that at this point of the war operations have ground to a halt everywhere but in a few locations for the past few weeks. Even when towns are captured or lost, most engagements have been small scale from both sides with defenders preferring to withdraw than to reinforce and fight.
If Russia started supporting the small scale operations it is currently undertaking, it would be playing EXACTLY to Ukraine's strengths. Small numbers of Tu-22s, Su-25s and pretty much everything else is very vunerable to mobile SAMs. Ideally you'd use ground attack drones in this situation because they scale down well and it isn't important if they are lost or not, but Russia lacks these in significant numbers. Russia's alternative seems to be a combination of low flying Su-25s, attack helicopters and Orlan UAVs guiding ground artillery and that's what we're seeing. The first two are vunerable to the new western manpads Ukraine has received, but losses don't seem to be too bad.
Once Mariupol has been mopped up and forces have been redeployed I expect a big change. At this point, Russia can go back to traditional overwhelming force both on the ground and in the air. What air defence Ukraine has left will be able to much against heavy aerial Russian attack, it will simply be overwhelmed with targets. When engages one it'll give it's position away and be vunerable to counter attack. It's simple strength through numbers.
Short range SAMs could quickly be overrun by ground forces if they're close to front lines. Long distance S-300s could still pose a threat but they don't have many left. I think that's why we've been seeing things like Iskander missiles taking out single batteries.
So to put it simply, the RuAF is waiting for "strength through numbers", and that will only happen when the ground forces are ready.
Russia should attend then, and if they keep doing this, then attend all of them.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
For short-range, lightweight drones (think DJI-type), a laser CIWS or a gun-based solution with a high rate of fire (think CS/SA5 or LD-2000) in combination with microwave- or EM-based countermeasures would be the safest option.
For HALE/MALE drones, something akin to the FK-1000, FK-2000, Sky Dragon 12, or FB-10 would likely be the most cost-effective option, with the HQ-17 or similar systems reserved for faster targets.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
They (the Russians) don't have counter-battery radars or Orlans/Orions to scout Ukrainian hardware?
They do and 1 was captured. The thing is that you only know there is artillery battery firing at you when they actually fire.
The vid is of course not showing whether there is Russian counterbattery or airstrike after that.
Don't necessarily need to send them all at once, think of drones as consumable, you just circulate drones throughout the battlefield nonstop and expect them to be shot down by the dozens. Overall the fallen drones will earn you many times their own values
Natural gas energizing the ruble...
The Russian ruble strengthened to 76 rubles to the US dollar and 82 against the euro on Thursday, reaching its strongest levels against major currencies since February 23.
The ruble plunged to historic lows after Russia launched the special military operation in Ukraine, and the US and its allies imposed unprecedented sanctions targeting the country’s financial system. On March 7, the Russian currency fell to as low as 150 rubles to the dollar.
The ruble nosedived on February 24, immediately after the start of the military operation, as international penalties targeted its freely traded currency. Western countries froze Moscow’s foreign reserves, making it difficult for the Bank of Russia to support the ruble by selling foreign currencies.
The Russian government took steps to stabilize the sanctions-hit economy, helping the currency to bounce back from record low levels. The central bank introduced immediate capital controls, including a ban on foreigners selling Russian assets, as well as mandated hard currency sales by exporters.
The Russian currency received another boost after President Vladimir Putin announced in March that “unfriendly countries” that imposed sanctions against Moscow must now pay for Russian natural gas in rubles only. The demand received a negative response from the EU; however, Hungary and Slovakia said they were ready to accept the new way of payment. Moscow has also indicated that in the future, all Russian commodities will have to be paid for in rubles.
Another factor in favor of the ruble was the announcement by the Bank of Russia on March 25 that the regulator is resuming gold
purchases at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles ($52 at the time) per 1 gram between March 28 and June 30. The move effectively links the ruble to gold, and since gold trades in US dollars, this sets a floor price for the ruble in terms of the dollar, establishing a new exchange rate between the two currencies closer to the levels seen on Thursday.
Ruble stronger than before Ukraine crisis
The Russian currency is trading at a six-week highThe Russian ruble strengthened to 76 rubles to the US dollar and 82 against the euro on Thursday, reaching its strongest levels against major currencies since February 23.
The ruble plunged to historic lows after Russia launched the special military operation in Ukraine, and the US and its allies imposed unprecedented sanctions targeting the country’s financial system. On March 7, the Russian currency fell to as low as 150 rubles to the dollar.
The ruble nosedived on February 24, immediately after the start of the military operation, as international penalties targeted its freely traded currency. Western countries froze Moscow’s foreign reserves, making it difficult for the Bank of Russia to support the ruble by selling foreign currencies.
The Russian government took steps to stabilize the sanctions-hit economy, helping the currency to bounce back from record low levels. The central bank introduced immediate capital controls, including a ban on foreigners selling Russian assets, as well as mandated hard currency sales by exporters.
The Russian currency received another boost after President Vladimir Putin announced in March that “unfriendly countries” that imposed sanctions against Moscow must now pay for Russian natural gas in rubles only. The demand received a negative response from the EU; however, Hungary and Slovakia said they were ready to accept the new way of payment. Moscow has also indicated that in the future, all Russian commodities will have to be paid for in rubles.
Another factor in favor of the ruble was the announcement by the Bank of Russia on March 25 that the regulator is resuming gold
purchases at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles ($52 at the time) per 1 gram between March 28 and June 30. The move effectively links the ruble to gold, and since gold trades in US dollars, this sets a floor price for the ruble in terms of the dollar, establishing a new exchange rate between the two currencies closer to the levels seen on Thursday.
Last edited:
As consumables as they are, they still needs infrastructure. Especially if you want them to actually return. Otherwise the better term would be Loitering munitions or cruise missile.
- Status