Ukrainian War Developments

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Virtup

Junior Member
Registered Member
Luhansk and Donetsk is friendly territory for the Russians. There's been guerilla warfare there for 8 years against the Ukrainian Army.
True.
What I don't get about his post is how will the ukrainians take the fight to russia when they're about to lose territory to a major push in the donbass area. Will they really risk manpower and military hardware for an operation that will inflict minimal damage to the russians and serve as another incentive for their war effort?
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
About time China lectures the US.

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China tells US how to help Ukraine​

Washington should drop its sanctions-focused approach to Russia, Beijing says

China tells US how to help Ukraine

FILE PHOTO. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian. ©VCG / VCG via Getty Images

The US is profiting from its campaign to impose anti-Russian sanctions, while even its close allies are suffering, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said during a briefing on Wednesday. The drive for anti-Russian sanctions should be dropped to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, he claimed.

Washington is coercing other nations into imposing sanctions on Russia, but the architects of these measures are careful to avoid any cost to the US itself, the Chinese official pointed out.

“American companies import Russian fertilizers. For Europe, the war and sanctions have brought refugees, capital outflow and energy shortages,” he said. The US put itself in a position allowing it to “profit from chaos,” he added.

Zhao reiterated Beijing’s position that unilateral sanctions – a tool that the US favors in its foreign policy – were harmful for the world economy and could not bring “peace and security,” the stated goals of such restrictions.

“If the US really wants to promote a de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine, it should stop adding fuel to the fire, abandon the cudgel of sanctions, refrain from coercive words and actions and truly encourage peace and talks,” the spokesman said.

His remarks came as the US and its allies ramped up pressure against Moscow in the wake of Kiev’s claims that Russian troops had committed war crimes in Ukraine. Moscow denied the allegations and said they were apparently meant to derail the ongoing attempt to negotiate peace.

Addressing the situation in Bucha, a town northwest of Kiev and the focus of Kiev’s assertions, Zhao said a thorough, independent investigation was necessary to determine what happened there. Images from Bucha were “disturbing,” he said, adding that “humanitarian issues should not be politicized.”

“Any allegations should be based on facts, and all parties should exercise restraint and avoid groundless accusations until the conclusion of the investigation is reached,”
he said.

The diplomat expressed Beijing’s support for any initiative aimed at deescalating violence in Ukraine.

Moscow attacked its neighbor in late February, following Ukraine’s failure to implement the terms of the 2014 Minsk agreements, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics in Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols had been designed to regularize the status of those regions within the Ukrainian state.

Russia is demanding that Ukraine officially adopt neutrality and that it will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists Russia’s offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it had been planning to retake the secessionist regions by force.
 

memfisa

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hey there, folks. It is that time. As I write, it is nearly dawn in Ukraine. The start of the 42nd day of the war. I never would have thought the war would go on this long, never mind take the course it has. I marvel, am horrified and fascinated all at once.

I thought I would do an update and share a few thoughts. These are all my thoughts and you should not hold them in high regard. I certainly don't. They are worth as much as you paid for them and if you paid nothing, it's still too much.

tldr; war not going well for the Russians. I'm overly full of myself. Read on if you like overstuffed verbage worthy of a particular poster from academia.

Wow. Here we are. The end of the sixth week of the Russo-Ukrainian War. I would have never thought this war would have ever lasted this long. It is clear any claims Russia would conquer Ukraine in set time frames are, well, wrong. Not in 72 hours. Not in 15 days. Not in 42 days. The next goal post is May 9th, Victory Day. Can Russia win by then? Not in the sense of conquering Ukraine, no. I don't think they can. If we move goal posts, say take the Donbas? Potentially, yes.

However, I am wavering as to whether or not they will do so. The actions, behavior and success of the Russian army so far make me question the possibility of success. I am not saying they will fail. I am just not certain they will succeed. Why? Let's look at some figures for losses and my own guessimate of deaths.

At the start of the war, the Russians are said to have had 130 BTG at the border of Ukraine. The Russian army has lost sufficient IFVs+APCs for a total of over 17 BTG worth: over 13%. In addition, the Russians have lost about another 8 (and change) tank battalions worth of, well, tanks. It has never been made clear (to me) how many tank battalions the Russian army went into Ukraine with separate from the BTGs, but if we assume (almost assuredly wrongly) there were none, the Russians have lost almost 33% (1/3) of the number of tanks that would have been assigned to the estimated 130 BTG. That's awful.

My guessimate of Russian soldiers killed is based again, on Oryx. I am taking only the APCs, IFVs, tanks and MT-LB (that variant only) and using the crew and passenger counts. It does NOT match the total equipment lost by the Russians, just the outright destroyed. This number has far, far higher uncertainty than the others. Infantry on the ground, cannon cockers and REMFs are not included. Even so, the number I could up with is almost 3,800 dead and (using the 3x rule), 11,400 wounded. That gives us over 19 BTG worth of casualties, but the BTG only make up part of the force as that would have made the Russian army massed at 104,000 troops. Almost twice that was reported as being massed on the Ukrainian borders: 190,000. Effectively, the Russians had over 237 BTG worth of troops at the border. 19 BTG dead doesn't sound that bad from that POV, but the guessimate is concentrated in the actual combatants, which is percentage wise, will be worse.

To be fair, I am using Oryx for the analysis and I give myself error bars of 20%. However, it is just as likely to be 20% under as over: why? Because even with the faked, repainted and duplicate photos, it's entirely unreasonable to assume Oryx is close to tracking every last bit of equipment the Russian Army has lost. It could be the Russians have lost only 12 BTG and 6 tank battalions (still sucks), but it could also mean the Russians have lost as much as 21 BTG and 10 tank battalions.

I'd be skeptical even then, except for one thing: the withdrawal from Kiev, Sumy and more. If the Russians thought they could hold out even defensively until the Raputitsa had passed, then I suspect they would have and then gone on the offensive to Kiev. However, the withdrawal strongly suggests the 60ish BTG there were mauled and need to be reconstituted and reequipped. Likewise, it also suggests there are not enough other troops to have simply relieved those mauled units with fresh troops. Hold the ground, rotate troops back and restart the offensive once the original troops are rested, fed, and losses replenished.

And, yet, that was not done.

To be fair, the Russians could hope to entice the Ukrainians into moving East and then attempt another attempt to take Kiev once General Mud retires from the field. It's not a bad strategy, tbh, but that assumes the Russians are not shifting east. And it appears many units are being shifted to the Donbas. Not the ones mauled, to be sure, but those in better shape are.

well, crap. I need to break this up. That's what I get for being a wind bag. if anyone wants me to put up the rest, say so. Otherwise, I'll leave it here with just this.
Who decided how long this war will take in the beginning? That person should be smacked across the face. War's do not come with some arbitrary time frames, no matter what moronic analysis by some unscrupulous Russian hating westerner you read.

The only unit of measure you can use with war are the goals set by each belligerent and who is moving closer to those at any given point in time. Even this is not set in stone, and is a fluid measurement which can change by day and night.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Grouping troops and letting know your position is a bad move. Don't know if it's Russian or Ukraine or a salvage yard tho...
No sign of troops near the base during in the video, although the size of the fire does suggest explosives and fuel got ignited, so this could be a warehouse stored with Russian weapons.

In the picture it seems like they bombarded the entire base or the base burned down. Also, is that a forklift/tractor on top middle-right of the pic?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
No sign of troops near the base during in the video, although the size of the fire does suggest explosives and fuel got ignited, so this could be a warehouse stored with Russian weapons.

In the picture it seems like they bombarded the entire base or the base burned down. Also, is that a forklift/tractor on top middle-right of the pic?
Maybe a repair facility of some sort, they look stacked there. It's more or less all Russian weapons both sides... hard to see from which sides. So many stuff salvaged both sides for repair.
 
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