Ukrainian War Developments

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Bill Blazo

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Except the Russians have no reinforcements, and they show no signs of being willing to escalate. Instead, we've had one unilateral concession / retreat after another. Not only are they being made to look evil in the eyes of the West and some neutral observers, they are being made to look weak.

People still can't get their heads wrapped around the idea but it's a real possibility: Russia may deliberately choose to lose the war rather than escalate their tactics or send reinforcements. It's possible that they are horrified at what they themselves did in terms of humanitarian costs, gobsmacked at the unified Western response and its economic effects, and just want to cut their losses, retreat back to their borders, and try to repair the damage. Their continuing attacks are to provide cover for their retreat. It's possible. You have no idea what's going on in Moscow. All we have is what they are doing on the ground, which is entirely consistent with what I wrote above.
The Russians are sending massive reinforcements across the southern and eastern fronts, as well as along their border with Ukraine. The number of daily Russian air sorties has also dramatically increased compared to early March. There are numerous photos and videos documenting all of this, and they've been shared on this very forum. Russia is playing to win, according to their definition of winning anyway. To think anything else is asinine.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
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The Russians are sending massive reinforcements across the southern and eastern fronts, as well as along their border with Ukraine. The number of daily Russian air sorties has also dramatically increased compared to early March. There are numerous photos and videos documenting all of this, and they've been shared on this very forum. Russia is playing to win, according to their definition of winning anyway. To think anything else is asinine.
The number of air sorties means very little. The artillery attacks on Chernihiv increased right after the Russians started drawing down their northern front. In a few days they were gone from Chernihiv. A week ago, there were rumors that more Russian reinforces were pouring into the Sumy front. A few days later, they were gone from Sumy.

One day they are escalating, the next day they are gone - back to the border. Like a ghost. That is how a retreat works. You make the enemy think you are not retreating to give your troops time to pull back.
 

Abominable

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Except the Russians have no reinforcements, and they show no signs of being willing to escalate. Instead, we've had one unilateral concession / retreat after another. Not only are they being made to look evil in the eyes of the West and some neutral observers, they are being made to look weak.

People still can't get their heads wrapped around the idea but it's a real possibility: Russia may deliberately choose to lose the war rather than escalate their tactics or send reinforcements. It's possible that they are horrified at what they themselves did in terms of humanitarian costs, gobsmacked at the unified Western response and its economic effects, and just want to cut their losses, retreat back to their borders, and try to repair the damage. Their continuing attacks are to provide cover for their retreat. It's possible. You have no idea what's going on in Moscow. All we have is what they are doing on the ground, which is entirely consistent with what I wrote above.
I think you're totally misreading Russian public opinion on this one. There's been videos of civilians being massacred by Ukrainians, lots of refugees who are now in Russia telling all kinds of horror stories. Plus the videos and reports of Russian POWs being mutilated and killed.
The image of Ukrainians is much worse than anyone could have imagined before the war. And yet Russia is going to somehow just quit the war? Not a chance.
 

Lapin

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China doesn't care if Russia is imperialistic in the European theater. Even better if that makes the EU in a more vulnerable position regarding China. China will care only if the EU shows that it has a sincere attitude towards China and wants to become an independent power


We are not allies. We are partners. Our relationship with Russia has no limits, no boundaries, no forbidden areas of cooperation. This means that we don't have to be shackled to everything that Russia does and vice-versa


We didn't burn anything. It was Ukraine which did that some time ago with their Motor Sich betrayal


We don't declare anything. We do business with everyone. If Ukraine/EU/US/etc wants to have the same relationship with China that Russia has, this isn't impossible to happen, its up to them.



Indeed, as I said, we do business with everyone.


Yes, actually I wished China did more on this aspect.


We have a huge border with Russia. Its upon China's interests to have a good relationship with Russia at all levels. From the elites, to the people in power, to the common Russian people



Indeed. Have you seen anyone here criticising China's response? We agree that Xi is playing it smart
My impression is that the Chinese writers who want Russia to conquer all or most of Ukraine also want China to do more
to support Russia's war effort. These writers apparently want Russia to have access to Chinese arms for the war.
 

Bill Blazo

Junior Member
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The number of air sorties means very little. The artillery attacks on Chernihiv increased right after the Russians started drawing down their northern front. In a few days they were gone from Chernihiv. A week ago, there were rumors that more Russian reinforces were pouring into the Sumy front. A few days later, they were gone from Sumy.

One day they are escalating, the next day they are gone - back to the border. Like a ghost. That is how a retreat works. You make the enemy think you are not retreating to give your troops time to pull back.
Rumors and documented evidence are very different things. So let me ask you this: if you're right, then there's not going to be a major attempted Russian push across the eastern front within the next month? Whereas if I'm right, there definitely will be. Let’s see.
 

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
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Looks like another artillery ambush. The armored vehicles aren't moving, perhaps one of them broke down blocking the others, creating a fixed target. Or perhaps they stopped for lunch :oops:. Either way, the Ukrainian artillery is again their best asset and if Russia loses the war it'll be due to their inability to defend against these precision strikes.
How is Ukrainian artillery this effective? Given that Russia has claimed air superiority for over a month, how are Ukrainian artillery not suppressed yet?
 

Lapin

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China is neutral because BOTH the Ukraine and Russia has China as its largest trading partners.

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It may depend upon how one defines 'trading partner'.
Russia's largest trading partner, as a single country, is China, but Russia trades more with the European Union as a whole.
 

Chilled_k6

Junior Member
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How is Ukrainian artillery this effective? Given that Russia has claimed air superiority for over a month, how are Ukrainian artillery not suppressed yet?
I think that tweet description is wrong. There should no or very little snow on the ground left in Donbass. Maybe happened a few weeks ago.

Still, Ukraine has had some tactical success with artillery. They are a pretty artillery heavy army like Russia.
 

Lapin

Junior Member
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Ukraine already burned it's bridges with China when they sent fascists to support rioters in Hong Kong, nationalized Motor Sich after Chinese investors paid for it and supported foreign interference in Xinjiang.

Russia did none of the above.

It's not up to Chinese to beg Ukraine for anything. They need to make the concessions to repair relations, not Chinese. Russia isn't the one that went out of their way to specifically harm China.

Motor Sich is the only tangible issue on that list of grievances.
Do you really fantasize that Hong Kong's protesters were significantly influenced by anything from Ukraine?

Many countries have criticized China's policies in Xinjiang. Why should China get so oversensitive about Ukraine joining them?
To be realistic, China should expect and accept some level of criticism. Ukraine has not been exceptionally anti-China.
China keeps doing business as usual with other countries that have criticized China much more loudly.
 
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