Ukrainian War Developments

Zichan said:

Former NATO supreme commander general Wesley Clarke explains that for Ukraine to repel the Russian attempt to envelop and annihilate them in eastern Ukraine, they need to start doing mobile armored warfare. Except, there is a small problem: they are missing 100s of tanks, thousands of tube artillery, air cover and ammunition to sustain this effort. In his words, Javelins are not going to be of much help in open tank country with 5+km of uninterrupted lines of sight and few places to hide.

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Ukraine entered this conflict with like 2000 tanks in service. So no, more tanks would not help.
They do not have either fuel, viable supply, or air power. And what air power they did have they lost most of it in the initial days of the conflict.

Clarke is also kind of wrong in that the Ukrainian Army in Donbass is in a highly entrenched position close to urbanized areas. So it is not as open tank country as he claims. The problem is any reinforcements they want to bring there, or if they decide to withdraw, then they will have to go into the open and be annihilated.

Abominable said:

He also seems to be ignorant of the public sentiment that's gripping Russia right now. The western boycott war against Russian culture was bad enough, now Russian media has reported Ukrainian war crimes and the Russian public are incensed. For the first time, you've got people complaining about Putin's inaction gaining prominence. A few years ago Khadyrov was considered to be crazy Chechen warlord, he's currently being taken very seriously by Russian people far more than anything Putin is saying right now. A few months ago Medinsky was seen as a staunch nationalist, he's now seen by the Russian public as a weak liberal.

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Right. Russians are also getting more radicalized as the conflict goes on. Not just Ukrainians. And Russia has enough strategic depth to continue this conflict indefinitively. While Ukraine does not have a single square foot they can claim they can hold with impunity to Russian attacks.

Abominable said:

If Putin resigns or steps down, who does he think is going to take over? To me it's like these people in Washington want a nuclear war, they can't be this incompetent.

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Who knows. Just look at the leadership the US has. I think these people are clearly incompetent.

Abominable said:

This isn't like Afghanistan where Russia gave up when things weren't working out. This is widely considered to be a battle on home territory for the existence of Russia. The two sides are nowhere near close to agreeing on anything. There won't be any negotiated settlement, and there certainly won't be negotiations between Putin and Zelensky.

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Right. For the Russians this is existential. I think there is still a slim chance for a negotiated settlement. But once the bulk of the Ukrainian army is defeated in the field there will be little reason for a negotiated settlement to happen. Unless we are talking about a completely one sided deal.

Abominable said:

There is only going to be one outcome of this war, a total victory of Russia over Ukraine. If things are going bad, Putin (or whoever replaces him) will use every weapon in his arsenal to get what he wants. No one in the west seems to have figured this out yet.

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I think the Russians would still accept a deal where Ukraine gets to keep at least part of its territory. But the longer they wait the less of a chance they will have to get a decent deal.
Remember until early February this year Russia would have been content with Ukraine fulfilling the Minsk agreement. i.e. just give autonomy to Donbass. After they started the intervention Ukraine has to accept the independence of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea. Once they lose the bulk of their army in the Donbass I think Ukraine's negotiating position will be quite flimsy indeed. I think at least Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are gonsky.

Lapin said:

In fact, many writers here--who apparently are Chinese nationalists--have insisted that China must support,
perhaps even unconditionally, Russia's war on Ukraine because China's security needs such a Russian victory.
Do you ignore the fact that many writers here have tied Russia's war on Ukraine with China's security needs?

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Chinese nationalist ideology is separate from the entire Ukraine/Russia conflict.

FriedButter said:

George Friedman. Not Thomas. That’s the only one recently mentioned here.

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Thanks. The post that I read and the one that it quoted did NOT mention his full name.

It seems more likely that the Ukrainians will reach Moscow before the Russians even decide to make a move on the Donbas region.

They would reach Moscow in their bicycles maybe. Probably no diesel left.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Chinese nationalist ideology is separate from the entire Ukraine / Russia conflict.

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That distorts the context. I wrote nothing about 'Chinese nationalist *ideology*'.

In fact, many writers here--who apparently are Chinese nationalists--have insisted that China must support,
perhaps even unconditionally, Russia's war on Ukraine because China's security needs such a Russian victory.
Why do you ignore the fact that many writers here have tied Russia's war on Ukraine with China's security needs?

I cannot confirm, as this is all happening to fast for me to track, but

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is reporting (

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) that a

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3-star general has been captured by

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|n forces in

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, where he was leading

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in battle. h/t

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If this is true then this is really big fucking news man.

Like seriously, if real and Putin parades this guy on public TV. Biden poll numbers are going down faster than the titanic. Wouldn’t be surprised if the US public starts banging war drums.

gelgoog said:

Ukraine entered this conflict with like 2000 tanks in service. So no, more tanks would not help.
They do not have either fuel, viable supply, or air power. And what air power they did have they lost most of it in the initial days of the conflict.

Clarke is also kind of wrong in that the Ukrainian Army in Donbass is in a highly entrenched position close to urbanized areas. So it is not as open tank country as he claims. The problem is any reinforcements they want to bring there, or if they decide to withdraw, then they will have to go into the open and be annihilated.


Right. Russians are also getting more radicalized as the conflict goes on. Not just Ukrainians. And Russia has enough strategic depth to continue this conflict indefinitively. While Ukraine does not have a single square foot they can claim they can hold with impunity to Russian attacks.


Who knows. Just look at the leadership the US has. I think these people are clearly incompetent.


Right. For the Russians this is existential. I think there is still a slim chance for a negotiated settlement. But once the bulk of the Ukrainian army is defeated in the field there will be little reason for a negotiated settlement to happen. Unless we are talking about a completely one sided deal.


I think the Russians would still accept a deal where Ukraine gets to keep at least part of its territory. But the longer they wait the less of a chance they will have to get a decent deal.
Remember until early February this year Russia would have been content with Ukraine fulfilling the Minsk agreement. i.e. just give autonomy to Donbass. After they started the intervention Ukraine has to accept the independence of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea. Once they lose the bulk of their army in the Donbass I think Ukraine's negotiating position will be quite flimsy indeed. I think at least Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are gonsky.

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"For the Russians this is existential."

The status quo ante bellum was far from being an existential threat to Russia.

Have you noticed vast numbers of Russians now volunteering to join their armed forces in order
to be trained to fight in this supposed war for Russia's very existence?

FriedButter said:

If this is true then this is really big fucking news man.

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Could explain why the Ukrainians were so willing to lose helicopters left and right to rescue those people

Lapin said:

That distorts the context. I wrote nothing about 'Chinese nationalist *ideology*'.

In fact, many writers here--who apparently are Chinese nationalists--have insisted that China must support,
perhaps even unconditionally, Russia's war on Ukraine because China's security needs such a Russian victory.
Why do you ignore the fact that many writers here have tied Russia's war on Ukraine with China's security needs?

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We can always reverse this question. Why do you ignore that many writers here tied western European or even American security to the conflict in Ukraine? Is Russia getting some more of the Donbass going to seriously weaken western Europe or US?