Ukraine entered this conflict with like 2000 tanks in service. So no, more tanks would not help.
They do not have either fuel, viable supply, or air power. And what air power they did have they lost most of it in the initial days of the conflict.
Clarke is also kind of wrong in that the Ukrainian Army in Donbass is in a highly entrenched position close to urbanized areas. So it is not as open tank country as he claims. The problem is any reinforcements they want to bring there, or if they decide to withdraw, then they will have to go into the open and be annihilated.
Right. Russians are also getting more radicalized as the conflict goes on. Not just Ukrainians. And Russia has enough strategic depth to continue this conflict indefinitively. While Ukraine does not have a single square foot they can claim they can hold with impunity to Russian attacks.
Who knows. Just look at the leadership the US has. I think these people are clearly incompetent.
Right. For the Russians this is existential. I think there is still a slim chance for a negotiated settlement. But once the bulk of the Ukrainian army is defeated in the field there will be little reason for a negotiated settlement to happen. Unless we are talking about a completely one sided deal.
I think the Russians would still accept a deal where Ukraine gets to keep at least part of its territory. But the longer they wait the less of a chance they will have to get a decent deal.
Remember until early February this year Russia would have been content with Ukraine fulfilling the Minsk agreement. i.e. just give autonomy to Donbass. After they started the intervention Ukraine has to accept the independence of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea. Once they lose the bulk of their army in the Donbass I think Ukraine's negotiating position will be quite flimsy indeed. I think at least Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are gonsky.
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