Ukrainian War Developments

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SAC

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The next 10 days could shape Europe’s geo-strategic future.

It is very likely Russia is prepared to endure further sanctions if it can “Balkanise” the Ukraine.

The Likelihood of Russian (and perhaps Belarussian) ground forces entering non-separatist Ukraine without provocation is unlikely. If Russian forces do enter this area, it is highly likely that it will occur within the next 10 days.
It is highly likely that if open conflict begins, Russian artillery, missiles, and aircraft strikes will occur deeper into Ukraine, and large-scale ground formation penetration into Ukraine outside of the breakaway areas will be to counter Ukrainian troop movements.

Best case for Russia: a divided Ukraine with Russia-leaning separatist areas stretching contiguously from the Russian border along the Black Sea coast to the Crimea.

 
plawolf

plawolf

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Phead128 said:
Can you explain this in more detail? How does EU sanctions on Russia hurt itself more? Doesn't Russia have a GDP smaller than Italy?
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The size of the economy is irrelevant when it comes to scarce commodities with finite and inelastic supply. No one can replace Russia’s share of the world gas supply.

It would be like China sanctioning the Netherlands, only worse because while China can at least manufacture most semiconductors and is rapidly moving up the tech chain to develop the capabilities to built what it currently cannot, you cannot build up gas fields where there isn’t any gas to tap.

Can the EU sanction Russia in a meaningful way and not buying Russian gas when their gas reserves are at historic lows? What are they going to burn when they run out of gas? The poor?

Even if the EU stops buying any and all Russian gas right this minute it’s not really going to concern Russia or Putin much since winter is almost over and they have already sold the EU the lion share of the seasonal peak gas they were ever going to, at triple the price thanks to the building up of tensions in the run up. China would be more than happy to take any gas shortfall in any case.

It is amusing seeing little Britain talk tough and act soft on sanctions because London is largely propped up by Russian money. Try to go after them and the London economy crashes overnight as the rich can always easily move capital and property prices will crash. If London’s economy crumples, the rest of the UK’s economy will soon follow.
 
SampanViking

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Sardaukar20 said:
I agree that China is literally using mental gymnastics to find excuses for Russia. Because what Russia had done is very troublesome, when interpreted from the angle of respecting territorial sovereignty. I had fully expected them to do so. Russia is an important ally, and Russia's reason to do so is quite justified. It is a reaction to the aggressive meddling by the West in Eastern Europe, and their potential threat to Russian security.

Russia and China are no stranger to bending international laws to their interests. They are forced to do so because of the West, especially the USA, who wantonly does it all the time. The US aggressively flouts international law to the point of threatening the security of Russia and China. But also dares to cite the same international law to restrain their response. China and Russia citing international laws all the time to chide the US looks quite hypocritical, and it is. But this is just classic geopolitics. Those were counter moves against US actions to undermine their security through underhanded means. China and Russia are an overall balancing force for good in this crazy world run by Western imperialists and their slaves in Japan and India.
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I would say its pretty easy as in both terms of the Russian areas of Ukraine and the Island of Taiwan, there is a common theme of returning territory seized or seperated and now being held in the Anglozone being returned to its rightful Motherland. Hence it is the historic passing of Russian territory to the Ukraine that was the act of separatism, not Putins current program of bringing back the Individual Republics concerned.
 
Deino

Deino

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Temstar said:
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He's right you know, Putin's move outsmarted nearly everyone.
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Could you please stop with these stupid comments!

what he did is a clear break of the UN carta! I don't know why invading another country by ignoring and violating formal international borders is called smart or clever!? It seems as if you try to legitimate his actions... and regardless of the reasons behind, some even I can understand, there is no right for war.

So stop with this BS.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
SAC said:
The Likelihood of Russian (and perhaps Belarussian) ground forces entering non-separatist Ukraine without provocation is unlikely. If Russian forces do enter this area, it is highly likely that it will occur within the next 10 days.
It is highly likely that if open conflict begins, Russian artillery, missiles, and aircraft strikes will occur deeper into Ukraine, and large-scale ground formation penetration into Ukraine outside of the breakaway areas will be to counter Ukrainian troop movements.

Best case for Russia: a divided Ukraine with Russia-leaning separatist areas stretching contiguously from the Russian border along the Black Sea coast to the Crimea.

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Did you hear Putin's speech? Taking over the entire of the Ukraine is clearly on the cards.
Deino said:
Could you please stop with these stupid comments!

what he did is a clear break of the UN carta! I don't know why invading another country by ignoring and violating formal international borders is called smart or clever!? It seems as if you try to legitimate his actions... and regardless of the reasons behind, some even I can understand, there is no right for war.

So stop with this BS.
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Describing something as smart isn't necessarily an endorsement of it. A criminal can be described as smart for having an elaborate scheme to steal.
 
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ansy1968

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SampanViking said:
I would say its pretty easy as in both terms of the Russian areas of Ukraine and the Island of Taiwan, there is a common theme of returning territory seized or seperated and now being held in the Anglozone being returned to its rightful Motherland. Hence it is the historic passing of Russian territory to the Ukraine that was the act of separatism, not Putins current program of bringing back the Individual Republics concerned.
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@SampanViking Sir Does this mean Falkland is next? will these encourage the Argentinians.
 
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