Ukrainian War Developments

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Coalescence

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Temperature likely to be 15 degrees below average across much of Europe (including Ukraine) for first half of April due to polar vortex. Not sure what implication there would be for the actual combat but I imagine it wouldn't help on the demand for gas.
There's also this:

If the forecast is correct, then EU will battered by both cold weather and air pollution from dust bowl. Its going to be a bad week to be living in EU.
 

Lethe

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I doubt that a laser-based SHORADS can be made anything like as mass, volume and cost effective as a traditional gun-based system.

Relatedly, Russia apparently found old ZSU-23 gun-based AA systems to be useful in urban warfare in Chechnya. The relatively high mass/KE of the shells (compared to other high rate-of-fire systems such as 12.7 or 14.5m HMG) and better elevation characteristics of the platform compared to other vehicle-based gun systems apparently made for good effects against civil materials and structures.
 
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FADH1791

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"DPR Defense Spokesman Basurin says that up to 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers could still be in Mariupol. Before the encirclement was completed, around 14,500 Ukrainian Marines, Azov & other AFU forces had taken up defensive positions there."
Damn 14,500 defenders in Mauripol alone. I can only imagine in Khariv or Odessa having the same number or larger numbers. Khariv could easily have 20,000-25,000 defenders. It will take at least a month or two to conquer the city. Yikes. I have read that half of the Ukrainian military is in the east. That includes the Donbas and the cities. In the Donbas it’s reported to be 65k-80,000 fighters. The cities in total probably have about 15k-20,000. This makes sense with the claim that half of the Ukrainian military is in the east.
 

Phead128

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It's a good idea to tie ruble to gold. Gold is the real money. Money that is finite is worth it. US dollars is infinite, so it is worthless.
Yuan RMB is pegged to the US dollar, so you are effectively saying Yuan RMB is also worthless since it's not pegged to gold, but pegged to a 'worthless' currency (US dollar).

Also, Russia doesn't have enough gold to make the ruble to be gold-backed. Russia is seeking to BUY gold at a fixed price of rubles. This makes the gold ruble-backed, not the other way around. To make the ruble gold-backed, the Russians have to SELL gold at a fixed price of rubles, but again, they don't have enough supply of gold.

At the same time, Russia is forcing 'unfriendly' countries to buy oil/gas via rubles. Effectively, Europe must buy rubles from Putin in gold, then use the rubles to buy Russian oil/gas or buy with gold directly. So effectively Russia is pegging the oil/gas to gold, using ruble as a paper proxy. This will significantly increase demand for rubles, because ruble is a paper proxy for oil/gas-backed gold. We will see if Europeans refuse to sell gold for rubles and potentially have oil/gas shutoff, or if they kowtow to the Petro-ruble.
 
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Phead128

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Yup. They don't call it the gold standard for nothing. Chinese money should be bound to gold, not to crappy US money printing.
Name a single country on the gold standard.

Did you even read my post? Russia is pegging the oil/gas to gold using ruble as paper proxy. Russia is making the oil/gas pegged to a ruble-backed gold, or effectively a Petro-ruble for 'unfriendly' states. They are not making the ruble gold-backed. Nobody uses gold to back their currency anymore.
 
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Coalescence

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Did you even read my post? Russia is making the oil/gas backed by gold using ruble as paper proxy. Russia is making the oil/gas backed by a ruble-backed gold, or effectively a Petro-ruble for 'unfriendly' states. They are not making the ruble gold-backed. Nobody uses gold to back their currency anymore.
Russia is the third largest producer of Gold in the world, so they could use Gold as a proxy or maybe just one of many pegs to their currency. But from what I'm reading in twitter of the announcement made by Russia, it seems like their broader goal is to create a new financial order based on commodities, so maybe the true peg to their currency is based on the vast wealth of resources and agricultural goods Russia has.
 

Richard Santos

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The problem with using gold to back money is unless you own all the gold you use to back the currency, the value of the currency is still set by fiat, You can make a unit of your currency be worth any amount of gold you want, and you can change that amount anytime you want. so gold standard affords zero additional solidity to the currency compare to fiat money. the relationship between gold and money is by fiat. you gain nothing.

If you actually own all the gold that backs your currency, so price of all goods represent a fraction of the total gold reserve, you still run into the issue that you can’t make the amount of gold change in direct proportion to changes in the size of your economy. If you don’t, we come back to the gold value of currency is by fiat.

now if the ratio of gold you hold on relation to value of economy is different from some other countries, then all of a sudden, your gold standard becomes an attractive target for state sponsored speculative attack against your gold reserve.

So it again comes back to a gold standard is a gold standard for nothing, other than a gold standard for ill thought out delusion.
 

Phead128

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Russia is the third largest producer of Gold in the world, so they could use Gold as a proxy or maybe just one of many pegs to their currency. But from what I'm reading in twitter of the announcement made by Russia, it seems like their broader goal is to create a new financial order based on commodities, so maybe the true peg to their currency is based on the vast wealth of resources and agricultural goods Russia has.
What Russia is trying to do is make Petro-ruble pegged to gold for 'unfriendly'' states to generate huge demand for rubles to stabilize value of the ruble.

Russia can never produce enough gold to be gold-backed, because gold-backed means Russia has to sell gold in exchange for rubles. If the entire population of Russia wanted to buy physical gold and sell rubles, there isn't sufficient supply of gold to satisfy it.

Instead, Russia is offering to buy gold at a fixed rate of rubles, which makes gold ruble-backed, not the other way around. In other words, for 'unfriendly' states like Europe, they must buy rubles to pay for oil/gas, and Russia is offering to buy gold in exchange for rubles at a fixed rate. So Europeans need to buy rubles from Putin in gold, then use rubles to buy oil/gas, therefore generating massive demand for rubles and stabilizing it's value via a defacto Petro-ruble pegged to gold.

In other words, Russia is weaponizing oil/gas to prop up the value of ruble via pegging oil/gas to gold via a paper proxy.
 
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