There are now increasing reports and videos of Russian armored columns moving through Donetsk and Luhansk. Today a large tank armada crossed from Russia proper into Luhansk, likely getting into position for the northern pincer around Izium. It now seems to be everyone's opinion, from the Pentagon to the Twitterati, that Russia is building up forces for a major push across the eastern front. And I also agree with the Twitterati on this one, not that anyone cares. Anyway, the plan seems to be a coordinated and near-simultaneous double envelopment starting from Izium to the north and Velyka Novosilka to the south, with LPR and DPR forces pinning a large part of the Ukrainian army along the eastern front. It's hard to say what kinds of numbers the Russians are putting into this effort, but it looks to be considerable. These next two weeks are going to be the most decisive juncture of the war's conventional phase. If the Russians can pull off what they've struggled to do so far, launching a massive and coordinated combined arms operation, then they're going to win.
A lot of people, including myself, have given the Russians a ton of crap about their performance in the war thus far. But now the Russians deserve some credit for learning from their past mistakes and coming up with a sound war plan. It's what they should've done from the very beginning, but better late than never I guess.
"A lot of people, including myself, have given the Russians a ton of crap about their performance in the war thus far.
But now the Russians deserve some credit for learning from their past mistakes and coming up with a sound war plan."
In some ways, this war may be compared to the Winter War 1939-40, when the USSR invaded Finland.
NATO members have given Ukraine enough aid to bleed the Russians, but not enough to defeat them.
"Despite superior military strength, especially in tanks and aircraft, the Soviet Union suffered severe losses and initially made
little headway. The
deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from the organisation.
The Soviets made several demands, including that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere,
claiming security reasons—primarily the protection of
, 32 km (20 mi) from the Finnish border. When Finland refused,
the Soviets invaded. Most sources conclude that the Soviet Union had intended to conquer all of Finland, and use the establishment
of the
and the
's secret protocols as evidence of this,
while
other sources argue against the idea of a full Soviet conquest.
Finland repelled Soviet attacks for more than two months and
inflicted substantial losses on the invaders while temperatures ranged as low as −43 °C (−45 °F)."
"After the Soviet military reorganized and adopted different tactics, they renewed their offensive in February and overcame
Finnish defences.
Hostilities ceased in March 1940 with the signing of the
in which Finland ceded 9% of its territory to the
Soviet Union. Soviet losses were heavy, and the country's international reputation suffered.
Their gains exceeded their pre-war
demands, and the Soviets received substantial territories along
and further north. Finland retained its
and
enhanced its international reputation."
--Wikipedia