Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
They could have bought them 6 months ago and had Chinese civilian operators. The current situation would be pretty much the perfect scenario for them. 90% of EAD suppressed, no airforce. Lots of high value ground targets. Piloted sorties or artillery is no substiute for that.

Russia seems to be like a grandparent who refuses to use a new smart phone and prefers using their flip phone.
so far there is no video of ukraine using medium range SAMs operationally in multi shot engagement.
i dont think slow moving UCAV can identity manpads. unless UCAV has JSTAR type equipment with size and power of airliner.
fundamentally it is still Ka-52/Su-25 with rockets/ machine guns at low altitude fast passes.
 

Lethe

Captain
This whole situation could have been prevented if Russia took advantage of the chaos of 2014 Euromaiden protest and invade Ukraine like back in Hungarian Revolution 1956

I'm sure Putin wishes he had tried this back in 2014/15/16 when the Ukrainian armed forces were far less formidable and the NATO response apparatus far less organised. One day it will be interesting to get a thorough and unbiased account of why certain decisions were and weren't made and how relevant factors evolved over time to lead us to the present catastrophe. Certainly such an account will be rather more complex than "the evil Putin woke up one day and decided to be extra evil".
 

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
The point is countries are not people and morality that may be valid for people do not apply to countries. Mearsheimer as a realist doesn't deal with what's right and what's wrong or who's guilty and who's innocent. He deals in "if you do A, then B will happen down the track" and he said if NATO expand eastwards then there's going to be a war in Ukraine. Was he not correct?
I am not Melissa Chan, and I don't represent her.
I don't see why you seem to be writing as if I am obliged to defend her views or statements.
When I was apparently asked, I explained why I thought Melissa Chan wrote what she did.

Without delving into the details of John Mearsheimer's position, I shall briefly explain my own.
Ukraine seems like Canada in the sense that there are two major linguistic communities.
Canada has a federal system, allowing for enough autonomy for Francophone Quebec that an
independence movement there has not gained majority support so far.

I thought that Ukraine should have steered toward being a neutral bridge between Russia (with which it shared
important economic links from the Soviet era) and the European Union. Ukraine should have considered giving its
Russophone minority a status similar to that of Francophone Canadians, with Ukrainian and Russian as official languages.

I understand why Russia perceived NATO's expansion eastward as threatening, though I don't believe that there
was any immediate concern of NATO using Ukraine to threaten Russia. In my view, NATO's real raison d'être
ended when the Warsaw Pact and the USSR came to their ends. Then NATO should have been disbanded.
After 1991, NATO has been used largely to provide political cover for US imperialism.

Was NATO's potential future expansion into Ukraine a *proximate* cause or justification of Russia's invasion?
No, because any potential threat to Russia was too far removed and could have been addressed first without war.
One should not kill a child, for instance, simply because one's afraid that he will grow up into a terrorist.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Was NATO's potential future expansion into Ukraine a *proximate* cause or justification of Russia's invasion?
No, because any potential threat to Russia was too far removed and could have been addressed first without war.
One should not kill a child, for instance, simply because one's afraid that he will grow up into a terrorist.
@Lapin bro from an Asian looking in what is NATO intention, simple from a security point of view is to balkanized Russia and from an economic to exploit its resources, other reasons like destroying the Russian Orthodox Church and the Slavic culture is a bonus. As other Western Interests group jump on the bandwagon to pursue their agenda.

An addendum, when this conflict settled in Complete Russian victory, the next Target is Serbia, here the Russian is in a disadvantage, as NATO hold an Escalatory Dominance. As the Collective West need a victory to rehabilitate themselves from this embarrassment.
 
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Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am not Melissa Chan, and I don't represent her.
I don't see why you seem to be writing as if I am obliged to defend her views or statements.
When I was apparently asked, I explained why I thought Melissa Chan wrote what she did.

Without delving into the details of John Mearsheimer's position, I shall briefly explain my own.
Ukraine seems like Canada in the sense that there are two major linguistic communities.
Canada has a federal system, allowing for enough autonomy for Francophone Quebec that an
independence movement there has not gained majority support so far.

I thought that Ukraine should have steered toward being a neutral bridge between Russia (with which it shared
important economic links from the Soviet era) and the European Union. Ukraine should have considered giving its
Russophone minority a status similar to that of Francophone Canadians, with Ukrainian and Russian as official languages.

I understand why Russia perceived NATO's expansion eastward as threatening, though I don't believe that there
was any immediate concern of NATO using Ukraine to threaten Russia. In my view, NATO's real raison d'être
ended when the Warsaw Pact and the USSR came to their ends. Then NATO should have been disbanded.
After 1991, NATO has been used largely to provide political cover for US imperialism.

Was NATO's potential future expansion into Ukraine a *proximate* cause or justification of Russia's invasion?
No, because any potential threat to Russia was too far removed and could have been addressed first without war.
One should not kill a child, for instance, simply because one's afraid that he will grow up into a terrorist.

NATO's gameplan is to win WW3. That is why they were arming Ukraine because otherwise there wouldn't be a reason for that. Winning WW3 goes right thru Russia then onto China, North Korea if they were to achieve that then WW3 is won by the US and NATO giving them the opportunity to re-ethablish a new world order with another 100 years of US world hegemony followed by a long peace where China and Russia defanged reduced into puppets like Germany post ww2 and North Korea annexed by South Korea.

But all this is easier said then done. The US has been trying to manuver itself carefully to winnable positions such as SK and Japan armaments etc etc everything they do is to setup an environment where the US comes out victorious in the endgame showdown.

Hence why Russia understands this long term game the US is playing which is putting the Americans constantly into winnable playing hands and that is what Russia is attempting to disrupt here.

This is like a poker-table where the US constantly is seeking to encircle it's foes in order to seek winnable playing hands all the time.

Why do you think they have 100.000 forces in Japan and South Korea? Or another 100.000 around the Russian borders. This is someone who is planning meticulously and doesn't want to lose WW3 and his obsessed with it because he is the only one who understands the amount of glory, wealth and prestige that comes with winning a World war hence they wanna make sure the US wins again in order to launch another 100 years of US world hegemony..

You can basically rewrite the whole world on your image if someone wins that is what is at stage here which is significiant
 
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longmarch

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm sure Putin wishes he had tried this back in 2014/15/16 when the Ukrainian armed forces were far less formidable and the NATO response apparatus far less organised. One day it will be interesting to get a thorough and unbiased account of why certain decisions were and weren't made and how relevant factors evolved over time to lead us to the present catastrophe. Certainly such an account will be rather more complex than "the evil Putin woke up one day and decided to be extra evil".
Russia's economy was in bad shape back then. After 8 years sanction it actually gets much stronger, and they finally are able to update their military hardware again after sorting out the supply chain issues; plus they are able to develop new hardware like hypersonic weapons.
To do what they are doing today at that time would be an even grander gamble. Today they are much more confident, just maybe a bit too confident.
 

Lethe

Captain
Was NATO's potential future expansion into Ukraine a *proximate* cause or justification of Russia's invasion?
No, because any potential threat to Russia was too far removed and could have been addressed first without war.
One should not kill a child, for instance, simply because one's afraid that he will grow up into a terrorist.

How could it have been addressed without war? Russia strenuously objected to NATO's 2008 declaration that anticipated Ukraine joining NATO and has conducted rigorous diplomatic negotiations with relevant parties ever since, right up to the invasion. Russia attempted and failed to maintain a friendly political regime within Ukraine. Limited annexation of more-or-less friendly territory and an ongoing civil war in the country had failed to halt the slide. We can disagree with Moscow's assessment of the situation (i.e. the threat of NATO expansion specifically, and the erosion of Russia's "sphere of influence" more broadly) and the means they have chosen to obstruct it, but it's clear that this invasion was not Moscow's plan A, B or even C.

And ultimately, it doesn't matter if we think Russia is being overly paranoid or entitled or whatever. What matters is Russia's position and its ability to assert and enforce that position. As Hugh White said recently, relations between great powers are set by the issues upon which each is willing to go to war. Cuba and the Soviet Union were morally right in the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was irrelevant, and indeed that crisis was only resolved when Washington agreed to a quid pro quo re: Jupiter missiles deployed in Turkey. The crisis and its resolution both reflect the preeminence of power politics over abstract moral considerations of self-determination and national sovereignty.
 

longmarch

Junior Member
Registered Member
Was NATO's potential future expansion into Ukraine a *proximate* cause or justification of Russia's invasion?
No, because any potential threat to Russia was too far removed and could have been addressed first without war.
One should not kill a child, for instance, simply because one's afraid that he will grow up into a terrorist.
Ukraine joining NATO is not a child... just like USSR placing missile in Cuba is not a child...
Yes Cuba missile crisis didn't result in hot war, but it was so close to trigger nuclear exchange, much scarier than the conventional war we are seeing today.
US as the hegemon knows how to provoke a country. It knows how to provoke Russia, it knows how to provoke China too. Just that Russia and China do things very differently due to different culture, population, geography, strategy etc.
 

Lapin

Junior Member
Registered Member
NATO's gameplan is to win WW3. That is why they were arming Ukraine because otherwise there wouldn't be a reason for that. Winning WW3 goes right thru Russia then onto China, North Korea if they were to achieve that then WW3 is won by the US and NATO giving them the opportunity to re-ethablish a new world order with another 100 years of US world hegemony followed by a long peace where China and Russia defanged reduced into puppets like Germany post ww2 and North Korea annexed by South Korea.

But all this is easier said then done. The US has been trying to manuver itself carefully to winnable positions such as SK and Japan armaments etc etc everything they do is to setup an environment where the US comes out victorious in the endgame showdown.

Hence why Russia understands this long term game the US is playing which is putting the Americans constantly into winnable playing hands and that is what Russia is attempting to disrupt here.

This is like a poker-table where the US constantly is seeking to encircle it's foes in order to seek winnable playing hands all the time.

Why do you think they have 100.000 forces in Japan and South Korea? Or another 100.000 around the Russian borders. This is someone who is planning meticulously and doesn't want to lose WW3 and his obsessed with it because he is the only one who understands the amount of glory, wealth and prestige that comes with winning a World war hence they wanna make sure the US wins again in order to launch another 100 years of US world hegemony..

You can basically rewrite the whole world on your image if someone wins that is what is at stage here which is significiant
"NATO's gameplan is to win WW3."

No, US imperialism hopes to dominate the world without fighting a Third World War.
But I think that it's too late for the USA to achieve world domination.

“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill.
To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”
--Sun Tzu
 
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