Ukrainian War Developments

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Richard Santos

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I'm not sure why Melissa Chan is getting so much air time here. There is no shortage of grifters here in America making a good living. She is just one of them.

The entire Russian war planning was basically done with the expectation for the best or close to best case scenario. They were not trained for this missions. They did not have the force needed for this prolonged war. They were not prepared for all the sanctions that were thrown at them. We are a month in and RuAF still cannot fly anywhere they want in Ukraine. How can that be?

There are a whole host of systems that China has developed for Taiwan scenario that would've been perfect for this Ukraine war. Russia could have purchased a lot of that maybe back in 2019 and they would not be in this position right now. If they had bought more PGMs and trained for them, they strike aircraft would've destroyed Ukraine's air defense capacity a lot earlier on. Just think about having Russia having 50 WL-2 UCAVs roaming across Ukraine air space after achieving full air dominance. Would things look the way they do right now?
until this war, the Russians no doubt continued to believe Russia was superior to china in military technology and actual operational skill, such that even if china has something russia doesn’t, russia can more than make up for it from what they do have.
 

Richard Santos

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The analysis of the use of aerospace power by Western analysts has a Western interpretive bias on the VKS's view of employment, this is called ethnocentrism - they appreciated the other in the light of our own reality.

Russian air doctrine is not yet consolidated. This is a fact and there was no doctrinal adherence of Russian air power to Western models, until today VKS fights for the independence of air power against the Army's land force, as if it were a ground attack force and rotary wings to support the forces ground forces, an air force subordinate to the Army.

The PVO (Soviet Air Defense Force) and VVS (Soviet Air Force) were consolidated into the VKS only in 2015 and were ineffective in what Douhet called the air domain.

But not always air supremacy or air superiority is the degree of air control desired or planned by an air force, in Brazil we have the classification of "favourable air situation", the minimum degree of air control or air dominance is expressed in a geographic space in an undetermined period of time, the RuAF still follows the discussion of the air precept of the original theorists who aimed at an independent air force, perhaps there is air power as a weapon to support surface operations.

Ukrainian air bases have been attacked with ballistic and cruise missiles from ships and land systems in a greater share than air-launched missiles, strategic bombers are also being sparsely employed and the difficulty of the RuAF to conduct complex air operations, operations that involve more than one type of aircraft in more than one type of mission trying to integrate a common purpose as a "Strike package".

When all this is understood, analysts will know how to analyze the Russian air force.
it’s not called ethnocentrism. it is called mirror imagining.

Ethnocentrism is when you look around you and think everyone else is not as good as you. you see the difference between how your cultural tradition do things abs how other people’s cultural tradition do things, and you reflexively believe your culture’s way must be better because you implicitly believe your culture is better. so other people’s cultural wisdom is not worth learning.

mirror imagine is when you look around you, you see not other people but your own reflection looking back at you. you try to anticipate what other people will do by projecting what you would do onto others, because you can’t imagine others might have good reasons for wanting to do things differently from how you would do it.

During the cold war the US military culture produces a gem of wisdom: “Ivan isn’t dumb. he just does things differently”

Clearly since the end of the the US military had went one step beyond ethnocentrism. it no longer even believe it’s own military cultural is good enough to be worth learning.
 
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Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
it’s not called ethnocentrism. it is called mirror imagining.

Ethnocentrism is when you see the difference between how your cultural tradition do things abs how other people’s cultural tradition do things, and you reflexively believe your culture’s way must be better because you implicitly believe your culture is better. so other people’s cultural wisdom is not worth learning.

mirror imagine is when you try to anticipate what other people will do by projecting what you would do onto others, because you can’t imagine others might have good reasons for wanting to do things differently from how you would do it.

During the cold war the US military culture produces a gem of wisdom: “Ivan isn’t dumb. he just does things differently”

Clearly since the end of the the US military had went one step beyond ethnocentrism. it no longer even believe it’s own military cultural is good enough to be worth learning.
It is true. By the way, are you from Brazil? Correct?
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
There are a whole host of systems that China has developed for Taiwan scenario that would've been perfect for this Ukraine war. Russia could have purchased a lot of that maybe back in 2019 and they would not be in this position right now. If they had bought more PGMs and trained for them, they strike aircraft would've destroyed Ukraine's air defense capacity a lot earlier on. Just think about having Russia having 50 WL-2 UCAVs roaming across Ukraine air space after achieving full air dominance. Would things look the way they do right now?
They could have bought them 6 months ago and had Chinese civilian operators. The current situation would be pretty much the perfect scenario for them. 90% of EAD suppressed, no airforce. Lots of high value ground targets. Piloted sorties or artillery is no substiute for that.

Russia seems to be like a grandparent who refuses to use a new smart phone and prefers using their flip phone.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
There's no war in the DNR/LNR if Ukraine recognizes their independence. Of course that's difficult to do, but that's the correct play from their perspective - sacrifice their claim on territory they're never going to get in exchange for NATO membership.
Georgia was formally invited to NATO in 2008 along with Ukraine. Georgia also had Russian-backed separatists problem, which lead to Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. Later, Georgia's defacto recognition of South Ossetia independence with a ceasefire agreement help end the Georgia-South Ossetia war, but ending the war did not have begin the formal NATO membership process for Georgia... NATO didn't touch Georgia with a ten foot-pole even after ending war. There is no guarantee that succumbing to salami-slicing will result in NATO membership for Ukraine, particularly as Germany and France were strongly opposed to Ukraine after the Russia invasion of Georgia in 2008.

People keep harping on what Putin initially intended for propaganda purposes, but any proper analyst would recognize that what Putin thought would happen in the beginning doesn't matter now. This is the situation as it stands and woulda coulda shoulda is irrelevant. Where does Russia go from here is the relevant question.

If full annexation is too costly or not feasible, then splitting Ukraine into a buffer state along the Dniper River, with Western Ukraine as a landlocked, de-militarized, failed state, and Eastern Ukraine as an independent puppet protectorate with pro-Kremlin leader. I personally prefer full annexation if possible, with Ukrainian republic within of Russia, like Tsarist-era. If NATO wants a shared border with Russia, atleast it's on Russia's terms along the Polish border, not on NATO's terms along Donbass border. This will guarantee ever lasting security for Russia for decades of even century.
 
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