Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think recognition is just step one. The Russian Army still surrounds Ukraine on three sides. Next step in the playbook should be a false flag against Donbass, with massive actual casualties to the ethnic Russian population. Russia would then use that as an engineered Casus Belli against Ukraine and start an invasion.
I see no reason for the Russians to false flag NOW. The Russians have already signed independence and now Russian troops are entering Donbass.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
What gives you this impression and wouldn't that action caused friction with the Sino-Russia partnership
It would but this time the breach of sovereignty is more obvious than Crimea.

China's biggest diplomatic principle is respect for sovereignty and UN rights. China has used a lot of this rhetoric as part of its international image (1st and 3rd world).

What's happening now might be too blatant for China to play the double game it played in Crimea's UN vote. Ofc it all depends on how the West drafts the UN Security Council resolution. If they are smart they would include a lot of "sovereignty" "UN rights" etc

In any case, China is a world power so it should be expected by the international community that sometimes it will bend the rules if necessary. In this case, as you said, Russia is far too important for China to score an own goal in order to please the West.

This is what I think will happen:
1% to vote yes with the West
95% abstain
4% to tote no
 
Last edited:

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
It would but this time the breach of sovereignty is more obvious than Crimea.

China's biggest diplomatic principle is respect for sovereignty and UN rights. China has used a lot of this rhetoric as part of its international image (1st and 3rd world).

What's happening now might be too blatant for China to play the double game it played in Crimea's UN vote. Ofc it all depends on how the West drafts the UN Security Council resolution. If they are smart they would include a lot of "sovereignty" "UN rights" etc

In any case, China is a world power so it should be expected by the international community that sometimes it will bend the rules if necessary. In this case, as you said, Russia is far too important for China to score an own goal in order to please the West.

This is what I think will happen:
1% to vote yes with the West
95% abstain
4% to tote bo
However, if China were to back Russia’s genocide claims, then the sovereignty issue will no longer become an issue. They can even portray the recognition of the lands and potential invasion of Ukraine as a liberation of Ukraine instead.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top