Wow. I ducked out to deal with the rest of life and came back to read. This thread has become...disappointing. Meming, ad hominems, mockery of sources, etc. If I wanted that, I'd hang out on reddit. I think I saw 1, maybe 2 attempts to do analysis. That the signal to noise ratio is so bad tells me not much is really happening.
One of the things I have thoroughly enjoyed here has been the divergence of views and the respectfulness of those. I have been told I have a minority view here before. Yet, no mockery. No derision. I hope I have returned that same courtesy. I hope it would be extended to others as well.
I really want to reemphasize NOT to plainly accept anyone's propaganda. The Ukrainians and Russians would both shame Buratino's nose at this point. And let's not even go near the other players in this war. Perhaps they can end the war with nasal jousting? Be critical. Don't just accept things because they fit your worldview or hopes. Sometimes the truth is bitter and we must accept the world is not as we would wish it to be.
Mild chastisement done. Let's do something of a bit of analysis: be the change you wish to see, I think they say?
Everyone knows our friend Oryx.
(stop groaning!)
As of the time of writing, the Russians have 'lost' 279 tanks, 265 IFVs and 71 APCs. This adds up to 16 and change BTG and tank battalions. Saying that though is a little deceptive. A BTG has, iirc, 3 mech companies and a tank company. A tank battalion is 31 tanks. Really, it is 10 BTG plus 6 tank battalions. That's actually interesting. Please, allow me to attempt to explain.
When the invasion was imminent, it was said there were 130 BTGs positioned. That would mean 1300 tanks and 4030 IFVs+APCs. I don't think I ever heard how many independent tank battalions there were. Does someone know?
Assuming Oryx's numbers are semi accurate, then the Russians have lost 21% of their tanks from the original BTGs. The Russians have only lost about 8% of their IFVs+APCs. Starting to see what I think is interesting?
The question is why? The IFVs and APCs are not more resistant to ATGM. So why the tanks? Let me take a couple guesses:
1. The way the tanks are being employed lends them to getting whacked more often. They are the tip of the spear most of the time. Therefore, they'll get targeted first. First come, first served, erm, shot at. That makes sense.
2. Also...I think the Ukrainians are intentionally targeting the tanks. Tanks in mobile warfare are the most effective weapon against other tanks. IFVs and other lighter AFVs can take out tanks, but BTR videos aside, it's not as easy and far more prone to getting yourself killed. Preserve your own tank force (debatable if that is happening) and let the jerks in a jeep, cyka in a machina, chew up and get chewed up. When it is favorable to you, concentrate your surviving tanks and counterattack. IFVs are going to get rough treatment by tanks, even the older T-72s and T-64s.
edit add: Right now, the tanks are more vulnerable, too. General Mud, the Raputitsa, makes picking them off easier than it will be when everything dries out come late May.
So! Are the Ukrainians selectively killing tanks and preserving a nontrivial portion of their tanks for a larger counteroffensive.
Test the hypothesis? Do we see less tanks than we would expect being whacked on the Ukrainian side? erm. Probably not, but no good data. We only have suspect sources here. The only other way to check quickly is based on Russian air strikes. Do we see them hitting larger groups of tanks or mostly tanks? Are those groups behind the lines? Longer term, let's see if the Ukrainians attempt to do a true armored assault. If I am right, they will. If I am smoking something good - I'm sure a 19th century Brit would sell it to me! - then, it will never materialize.
My intuition is to doubt my hypothesis and think it is pretty wrong. However, it is an interesting idea. And it is an attempt to some analysis more than on the meme level
A few more observations.
4 weeks in and Russia hasn't won. Not in 72 hours. Not in 15 days. still not 28 days later. World War Z has yet to play itself out.
While constricting Mauripol hard, it hasn't cracked yet. I seem to recall a poster claiming Mauripol had fallen in a few hours the first night of the war. That post definitely aged well. I expect it will fall and probably by Sunday, but I thought it would have fallen already. Not yet. Not yet.
The rumors of attacks, thrusts, parries and counteroffensives are about as clear and accurate as a blind man flinging mud and calling it a clear hit. No sign of the kessel I've heard for the last few weeks. Artillery still falls on Donetsk, so any DNR offensives can't have made that much progress. The claims of the counteroffensive by the Ukrainians to Kherson were being followed by CNN and then...crickets? hmm. Hmmm, I say. The Ukrainians have encircled the Russians outside Kiev! um. (x) doubt. The Russians have encircled Kiev! uh, about those Prime Ministers. I'm totally sure the Russians let them pass freely. Oh, sure, go ahead! Feel free to pass through our lines to conspire against us!
I don't think the Ukrainians can win: even if the Russians lose, as dubious as it may seem, Ukraine is trashed. Cities smashed on levels not seen in Europe in a life time. Even if the Russians are thrown out and never to come again, it would take enormous amounts of money, more than the meth addled squirrel brains of the west would be able to concentrate long enough to give would give.
I am becoming dubious the Russians can win either. Oh, they might on the battlefield, but...after that...a full capitulation requires breaking the will to fight. If anything, the resolve, the rage, of Ukrainians has grown. I don't think people here are taking that rage seriously. Ukrainians are a passionate people in their own way. When they love, it is deep. When they hate, it is far, far worse. And they are just as stubborn and obstinate as any Russian. Probably more so, at least in my sample of one (my own) experience.
back to predictions!
If the Russians cannot free up troops from Mauripol after they have taken it, I think Russia is in trouble. If they do not conduct another serious and successful offensive, they are serious trouble. in If the Russians are still fighting this war in July, they are screwed.
Feel free to mock and poke holes. I'll return when I can.
